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VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

35.7C here for a max. Bit of a split between the eastern burbs which mainly topped out in the high 30 to 41C and the western burbs which got the full nwly furnace and went a few degrees higher :?

Hoping for some spits tomorrow and some proper showers Monday but not convinced. More warmth Thursday and Friday but that system should have some moisture with it, though progs are backing off on total :(
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Onetahuti »

I may be wrong in this but the home that was damaged in Carrum Downs sustained the damage by embers entering through a evaporative cooler, was the cooler on at the time which enabled the embers to enter further into the house than would have been the case if it was not on?
A lesson for all of us for the future?
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by snowfall »

Change came through at about 6:25pm. Now it's 28.8c and the humidity has gone up a lot. It's currently sitting on 43% and climbing. We reached 40.2c here today, and thankfully the wind wasn't anywhere near as bad as predicted, even with the cool change. Now it's a mild breeze. You could see the change sweep up from the SW as a thin white line on the Laverton radar. Even though there was no rain, the radar seemed to have picked up the boundary between the two air masses.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by JasmineStorm »

Maxed around 39c which is pretty hot at 527m. Cooling down now..... that was a big moisture sucker on the landscape today. Not seeing a lot of rain in the next 10 days at the moment on the models.

@onetahuti, not sure about the cooling unit but I know an ember can get through very small gaps around windows, doors, roof tiles etc... it's normally the cause of a structure burning down and not the fire front itself. Nasty part of bush fires those embers.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Much cooler this morning with a bit of hill fog drifting through the trees. The upper trough lies well west and Vic sits under a mid level cloud band. Should see the odd shower, increasing later today into tomorrow in the east (and possibly central areas). Not a heap in it, but guess anything is welcome.

Btw one random stat, yesterday’s saw another 45C temperature in Vic. That makes for 13 days since 2001 that we’ve seen a 45C recorded somewhere in Victoria. In the preceding 40 years we saw just 9 days :(
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by JasmineStorm »

A touch cooler today :)

The heat in the central Oz is building and no signs at the moment that a big cyclone will cool it. Potential W.A cyclone to do a coastal tour by the end of the week but we could be in for multiple days with big temps within 14 days.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Not Vic, but crazy temps around Sydney this arvo. 47.1C at Penrith with plenty of 45C’s. Still early so could go higher yet :o

The Sydney Basin record is 47.8C from 1939 so that could be under threat :? (1939 followed a major drought in a La Niña which is the worst possible combination for heatwaves).
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Dane »

Yes Penrith is a Hotspot. That 47.1c seems to be the hottest in Australia Today
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Horts »

News keep talking thundery showers in the am’s tomorrow but I just can’t see it? Anyone with more knowledge and I able to shed any light?
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

News keep talking thundery showers in the am’s tomorrow but I just can’t see it? Anyone with more knowledge and I able to shed any light?
There’s an upper trough approaching from the southwest. This should thicken up the cloud band over us and see some showers develop. It’s quite unstable in the mid levels, while central areas should see a bit up upslide. The one issue is the lower levels of the atmosphere around 2km are very hot and dry so a fair bit of the precip will evaporate before it reaches the surface. You could see this today around Melbourne with some elevated showers from mid level cumulus/altocumulus but only the odd spit reaching the surface.

The northeast into NSW will see a couple of days of instability as a surface trough lingers.

Btw starting to shape up for a very warm and humid Thursday and Friday with potential for ok falls. Progs been pretty jumpy so not entirely confident.

Penrith topped out at 47.3C so the second highest on record in the Sydney Basin behind the 47.8C at Richmond 1939. Pretty crazy that western Sydney has seen two 47C days in less than a year :(
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

A few spits this morning, but not enough to tip the rain gauge. Also fog drifting across the hill.

Unstable mid levels today, with the odd shower. Not expecting much, but guess you can always hope.

Progs sprayed for Thursday/Friday/Saturday. Could be humid and rainy, hot windy with late rain, or inbetween :roll:
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Macca2395 »

How about this for a horrifying forecast?! Still over a week away, but can you imagine if this came off.. :o
Screenshot 2018-01-08 at 10.25.37 AM.png
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Surely that can't/ won't happen?! 48? :?
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by JasmineStorm »

Macca2395 wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:34 am How about this for a horrifying forecast?! Still over a week away, but can you imagine if this came off.. :o
Screenshot 2018-01-08 at 10.25.37 AM.png

Surely that can't/ won't happen?! 48? :?
Certainly looks a little hot Macca :) what location is that for and what is the source of the screen shot?
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Blackie »

Thundery out here ATM but very little precipitation. As HB mentioned seems to be drying up in the hot airmass. Currently 27.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Macca2395 »

JasmineStorm wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:52 am
Macca2395 wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:34 am How about this for a horrifying forecast?! Still over a week away, but can you imagine if this came off.. :o
Screenshot 2018-01-08 at 10.25.37 AM.png

Surely that can't/ won't happen?! 48? :?
Certainly looks a little hot Macca :) what location is that for and what is the source of the screen shot?
I would take it with a pinch of salt JS! I was just trying to have a look at a 14 day forecast and this is the first one I came across. Just checked again and they've pushed temps back down to more reasonable levels, but it certainly caught my attention! It's supposedly a forecast for Melbourne!! :D Could be very hot nonetheless.

Website: http://www.myweather2.com/City-Town/Aus ... ecast.aspx
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by jimmyay »

It must be picking up a hot signal in the long range. Jasmine mentioned yesterday that later in Jan was starting to have the potential for heat! Not 48/53 C hopefully 😂
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Didjman »

We have shwrs inbound from NW with some sparks in them.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by JasmineStorm »

A few sparks and rumbles nearby , not a lot in them but better than nothing.

Yes Macca, I wasn't taking it too seriously. What ever model updates that site might need to go in for it's 6 monthly service ;)
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Sky to my north looks quite thundery ATM, supported by radar but looks to be sliding to my northeast :roll: Had a couple of near misses from light shower so far today, but TBRG yet to tip over.

Looks quite good tonight for the northeast into NSW.

Fri/Sat firming in the models as a thundery change followed by a solid cold front. Perhaps time to move to the new thread..
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Blackie »

[quote=hillybilly post_id=103595 time=1515395383 user_id=82]
Sky to my north looks quite thundery ATM, supported by radar but looks to be sliding to my northeast :roll: Had a couple of near misses from light shower so far today, but TBRG yet to tip over.

Have been observing that double header east Mt Buller for a few hours. Very lightning active with flashes every few seconds around sunset. Lovely structure. A little concerned these may spark fires in Alpine National Park. I took a few snaps.
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