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VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by wolfcat »

Updated Melbourne Forecast 4:20pm ... Not 41c, now 42c.

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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by tonycynic »

Any ideas for the timing of the cool change for central areas? Going to be a worrying day for some.
Still green here, lets see how long that lasts.
On a separate note some rain for friday.
Friday 12 January
SummaryMin 21Max 26Showers. Possible storms.Possible rainfall: 5 to 25 mmChance of any rain: 70%
Melbourne area
Mostly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The risk of thunderstorms during the morning. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h shifting south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h during the late morning.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by jimmyay »

Wow! Upgrade to 42! Going to be super hot...
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by mick »

tonycynic wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:31 pm Any ideas for the timing of the cool change for central areas? Going to be a worrying day for some.
From what I could see, about 8pm ish give or take kinda sorta.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by stevco123 »

A fair few chemtrails visible from here. Coincidence with the forecast heat?

Also anyone notice the forecast for next Friday? 5 to 25mm rain. Showers and storms.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Sean »

stevco123 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:50 pm A fair few chemtrails visible from here. Coincidence with the forecast heat?

Also anyone notice the forecast for next Friday? 5 to 25mm rain. Showers and storms.
I truly hope you're not inferring some ridiculous conspiracy and instead meant to say 'contrail'..


Anyway, beaut day, and feels quite humid. Not looking forward to tomorrow, though. I like the heat, but that's too hot (or just perfect for the beach lol)
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by JasmineStorm »

Access R run 00z is now projecting the dry wind change squall line to launch 90 to 100 km/h gusts in the mid afternoon in the western districts.

My 2 cents worth on the BoM's 5 to 25mm forecast for next Friday. That is BoM code for 'The models are very jumpy'. There is a possible cyclone off W.A and maybe the monsoon trough paying a visit to Oz again, so it's upgrade and downgrade central at the moment.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Any ideas for the timing of the cool change for central areas? Going to be a worrying day for some.
EC got it just after 6pm through metro Melbourne. Looks like it will hit the surf coast about 4pm. Thinking it will become visible on the Doppler sometime between 3:30 and 4:30pm. These can be really tricky as the front will race along the coast then be slower inland.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by wolfcat »

Opticast is now saying 43 for Melbourne as well, given the timing of the change the 2014: 43.4c temp might be in danger of falling.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Some very hot temperatures tomorrow, with latest models tending to increase the wind speeds again slightly, so tomorrow's GFDR and FFDR likely to be altered again in the morning with the next update. Even with the minor amendments, the extreme rating looks like the best category for tomorrow across the districts mentioned. Either way, it's going to be a stinker of a day with temperatures widespread above 40 degrees. Even if the change is delayed by up to an hour, Melbourne's temp tomorrow is likely to nudge past 42 in my opinion. As others have mentioned, will be interesting to see the usual hot spots like Avalon and Geelong. Keep nice and cool if you can and stay hydrated is my advice! 8-)
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by weathergasm »

A fair few chemtrails visible from here.
Nope. What you're seeing are contrails. "Chemtrails" are a dumb, easily-debunked conspiracy theory.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

22C here currently with a DP of 11C. Can see fog in the valley below. Winds at ground level are calm, while at tree tops looks to be about 10 knots. Only 11 hours to the front.

Winds stay east of north here until early arvo, then the blast furnace hits. Further west this happens earlier :?

Unfortunately, the showers for Sunday into Monday are looking sparse on the lattes batch of progs,
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by stevco123 »

30 degrees at 9am.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Andy »

Wind really picking up now. Feels like the heater has just been turned on! 32 degrees at home.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by JasmineStorm »

27c and Humidity down to 35% already with the NWer gusting near 40 km/h.

Latest Access R 18z has the dry squall line gusting around 100 to 110 km/h out west at 3pm and near 90 km/h centrally around 6pm.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by tonycynic »

30c here at 10am, windy out there too. Didn't stop one idiot dropping a cigarette out the window on swansea road. didn't get the rego. :x
Chemtrails? Dimmer skies are safer skies. ICA
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by occluded »

Cracked 30 degrees at 9.30am this morning, well on the way.

SWW released by the BoM for this evening's wind change.
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Central, South West and parts of West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:27 am Saturday, 6 January 2018.
A cold front will cross southwest and central Victoria this afternoon and evening and will be accompanied by strong wind squalls.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts around 90 km/h are possible over parts of the Southwest, Wimmera, Central and West and South Gippsland districts this afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front.
Winds are expected to ease within an hour of the wind change.
Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Warrnambool, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne and Bacchus Marsh.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by StratoBendigo »

Avalon is off and racing with 39c already....

Just 35c here atm.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by wolfcat »

Avalon has already hit 39.0c at 10:44am

And the winds are getting up to 60kph gusts already.

Stay safe everyone.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by snowfall »

Awful day outside. The temperature shot up early this morning to 31c by around 9:30, and has been slowly climbing since. Currently 33.3c with a strong, gusty wind. At least it's only until this evening, and not a run of 40+ days.
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