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VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

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VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Happy New Year everyone! :cheers: I'd just like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who continues to the visit the forum. We love hearing from absolutely everyone, it is you who keeps this place alive, and I cannot wait for what the weather will do in 2018! :D

Just thought I'd get this thread going. It's not going to be the most active period, however we do have some heat to talk about!

Mostly settled conditions thanks to a high approaching and then strengthening in the Tasman Sea during the week. It's likely to direct a fresh (to occasionally strong) north to northwest wind over us on Saturday ahead of a mostly dry change moving in from the west during Saturday. Temperatures at this point look like being above 40 for most locations, except maybe the far southwest depending on the timing of the change. There is already talk of extreme fire danger for the Mallee and Wimmera, with Severe fire danger over the Southwest, Central, North Central and Northern Country districts.

It does look like a mostly dry change, though some of the guidance is suggesting a few isolated showers/storms. The weather looks more interesting into next week.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Skywalker »

Happy New Year Jake, and everyone else. May 2018 bring us lots of amazing events in the wonderful world of weather. :D

Shocking conditions coming up with this moisture starved heat event. I'm heading back down to the island tomorrow, so will have to really soak the gardens in the morning here in Burnside Heights to prepare. No doubt the temperature will be one or two degrees more in the west compared to the rest of Melbourne.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Didjman »

Word has already gone out seeking cfa crew availability for Saturday.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by JasmineStorm »

Happy new year to all.

With the monsoon well north of OZ, I'm seeing a terrestrial heat bomb forming in the centre over the next week. Just took a peek at Saturday and EC has upgraded on wind, so I would imagine fire danger ratings will be increased accordingly as mentioned already. I think the pre-new year rains are going to assist for limiting fire danger levels centrally but it's still looks a little risky with this set up. Western districts look more nasty though, with gusts around 80 km/h ahead and after the SW change. Certainly looks like a lot of 40's across Vic with low humidity.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Macca2395 »

Happy new year everyone!

The last few days here in Lancefield have been absolutely gorgeous, averaging around the mid to high 20's with brilliant sunshine! :) We still have a tinge of green around the area which I doubt will last the weekend - It certainly looks nasty this Saturday though. What a summer it has been so far!!

The town has pretty much recovered after the super cell that hit us the week before Christmas. I don't think I properly understood the scale of the storm until a day or two afterwards. Huge Cyprus trees were shredded and literally ripped in half and there was a fair amount of structure damage too. Interestingly, the area definitely had a Tornado a couple of years back - in the same area we had the fires in 2015. I don't know whether anybody can explain this, but the region surrounding the Cobaw Ranges always seem to channel some pretty extreme weather. Certainly recently that is! :?
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Happy New Year all (and what a glorious few days to start the year...).

This thread's pretty much about Saturday and what are shaping up as a few horrible hours from about 11am to about 5pm. Most spots will spike into the 40s, with mid 40s in the northwest. Dry air in the low levels, gusty winds and heat.... :o Looks like the front's due through Melbourne late arvo. I'm struggling to see Melbourne staying below 40C, and expecting Geelong and Avalon will get into the low 40s.

Things are nice and green in eastern Vic which will provides some buffer, but the west didn't have such a good December. Am expecting some pretty unpleasant FFDI values on the forecasts :?
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Odd shower in east central this morning. Had 0.8mm in FC with a few spits continuing.

No real change in the progs. Saturday stinker. The change look a touch later, but otherwise nothing has really changed. Thinking 40-42C across the metro area. Should see the odd 45C in the northwest. Hopefully nothing hotter.

Dry air and gusty winds :? Fingers crossed that the recent rain etc takes the edge of things.

Progs trying to produce a few showers after the front on Saturday night, then a couple more on Monday as the swly strengthens.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Rivergirl »

Happy New Year Jake, hillybilly and Jasmine Storm. Thanks for all your updates
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by wolfcat »

Melb temps to watch for this Saturday

42.2 13/1/16 - chance to be beaten
43.4 16/1/14 - unlikely.

(and happy new year everyone)
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by jimmyay »

Happy New Year to all. I’m thinking 42 maybe possible in favoured spots on Saturday, Moorabbin perhaps. Going to be toasty for sure.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by tonycynic »

Is anyone else thinking Sunday’s 22c forecast from BOM a little low if we are looking at 40+ the day before?
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by wolfcat »

The temp dropped to under 22 after Black Saturday, so it is perfectly in range.

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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by stevco123 »

Happy New year all!

I reckon 40 on Saturday (39.7 in the CBD just to annoy everyone hoping for a over-40 degree day lol :D ) and then 21 to 22 on Sunday. May even be about 20 depending on cloud cover.

Certainly happens often in summer when we get over 40 degree days and then low 20s.

Black Saturday we had 46 in Dandenong North and then 19.6 the next day fro memory.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by tonycynic »

My own fault, owning any kind of pool is a great excuse to forget the cooler summer days.
Stay safe out there people, fire season can arrive with a hurry.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Progs not budging on Saturday. Late arvo front after a stinker. mid 40s in the northwest, and low 40s in the south. The Wimmera could well see it's hottest day since Black Saturday, but most other areas will stay below the 2016 or 2014 peaks.

Thinking 40 to 42C across the Melbourne metro area, but could sneak just above that range. Will equate to about 35 or 36C up here. Heat just hits with a bang. Mild day today, nice day for most on Friday, then 6 hours of oven heat blasting Vic on Saturday. If only Vic could even these days out a bit better, rather than giving us the 20s->40s->20s sequence :?

Thankfully, winds aren't too strong so what could be a very nasty fire day is just nasty. Definitely, not a day to take lightly, particularly in rural and regional areas.

Second trough to come through on Monday which is looking wetter across the models. It looks more like an eastern Vic event, but rain is slipping into central areas (and sure any will be welcome after Saturday).

Possible significant rainfall event in about a week :?:
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Didjman »

hillybilly wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:37 pm Progs not budging on Saturday. Late arvo front after a stinker. mid 40s in the northwest, and low 40s in the south.

Thankfully, winds aren't too strong so what could be a very nasty fire day is just nasty. Definitely, not a day to take lightly, particularly in rural and regional areas.
I will be volunteering in the Incident Control Centre in Seymour - for any fires that break out Sat arvo. Hope its quiet - but not confident. Think a TFB across most of the state is a given for Sat.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by JasmineStorm »

Based on the latest Access R 040118 12z run for wind gusts, I think some parts of Vic should be code red. Wide spread 70 km/h + and around 90 km/h on the wind change
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by Didjman »

From State Control Centre (EMV):

forecast fire Danger of Extreme
and Severe across most of the State. A Total fire Ban has been declared for the whole of Victoria for
tomorrow 6th January 2018.

SATURDAY 6 JANUARY
• Fire danger spike day. Very hot, dry, fresh and gusty N/NW’ly winds develop during the morning.
• A shallow, squally SW’ly wind change moves through western/central parts afternoon/evening.
• Gusts of 80-90km/h possible with wind change in the South West, Wimmera and Central districts.
• Maximum temperatures of 40-45°C and RH of 5-15% forecast across much of the State.
• cHaines values exceeding 11 across the State due to moderate instability and enhanced dryness.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by hillybilly »

Nice day up here again with a light southerly wind. Has been notably heavy dews the last couple of mornings, and last night we briefly had the stratus on the southerly touch the tree tops. Shame that won't hang around...

Hard to believe it will all change about 5am tomorrow. Have looked across the full set of models for tomorrow and they average to 40C for Melbourne OP, but range as high as 43C. Looks like the front should be through here about 6pm. It does start out quite cool here tomorrow, and low level moisture takes most the day to mix out. It is very different west of Melbourne where temperature race up. Am thinking it will be one of those days when Avalon bolts to 41 or 42C by noon and the eastern burbs of Melbourne then slowly catch up through the day. Western districts through the Mallee look very nasty.

Progs still holding a bit of rain from late Sunday through Monday. More significant rain event late next week.
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Re: VIC: Mostly settled, but becoming hot ahead of a milder change - 1st to 7th Jan 2018

Post by wolfcat »

Saturday fire danger updated to extreme across the Southwest and Central districts

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