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VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by JasmineStorm »

Couple little clusters heading towards Melbourne from the Macedon Ranges at the moment, they might spark. Missed here but looks dark heading over the range.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by snowfall »

A storm just went through here - some good flashes and rumbles and 7mm. Looks like it is holding up as it heads into Melbourne.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Few OK falls showing up around Trentham from that cluster of storms. In bound for Melbourne and should ride in over the shallow wind change. GFS was keen on a bit tonight so maybe a chance :?
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by JasmineStorm »

Cell heading towards Mansfield is looking nasty....black core on BoM 128 radar.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Blackie.

You at Mansfield under this Black cell. ?d

http://www.mansfieldweather.com.au
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Horts »

Not a whole lot given on the metro system.. maybe 15-20mins rain and that’s all she wrote. Good for the lawn but will still need a water in Safety Beach.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by mick »

Maindample geting smashed, looks like possible supercell.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by JasmineStorm »

That is a v-notch on the radar of that super cell that hit Mansfield. There is a big updraft on that baby. Just hit -60c on the cloud tops.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Skywalker »

Just had a brief moderate shower push through here in Cowes, not a lot in it, just enough to annoy the dog. We were about to head out for the evening walk.

That black core up in the North East looks brutal.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Brief heavy shower here with 1.2mm. Now got thick fog and humid southerlies.

Going to be an active night in the northeast, then tomorrow sees it extent further south as the trough deepens over central areas ahead of the amplifying upper trough. Conditions look quite unstable with LI down around -3 to -5 in central areas and northwest steering which should move things over the surface southerly/sea breeze.

All the models going for moderate to possibly heavy falls for east central through the northeast. Is going to be a fairly strong gradient on the southwest side so could well miss Geelong etc, while city should get something. Hoping for 10-20mm here to keep the garden green ;)
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Blackie »

JasmineStorm wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:33 pm That is a v-notch on the radar of that super cell that hit Mansfield. There is a big updraft on that baby. Just hit -60c on the cloud tops.
Yep it sure was. Micro burst here. Full on. Video soon.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by snowfall »

Foggy this evening with a few spits of rain. Not sure how we’ll go here tomorrow for storms. It might be a little borderline in these parts but I guess we’ll see. We’re getting close to 800mm for the year here, which is slightly above average. I don’t think we’ll quite make it to 800 though, unless we get really lucky. It seems to have been a year of extremes here, swinging between very dry and very wet periods.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by snowfall »

Beautiful picture Blackie.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Blackie »

Thanks Snowfall.

Shell, yes we are here (Mansfield, Lake Eildon) and were on the boat when this surprise package revealed itself. 22mm in about 30mins. Totally caught in the middle of it as were several others. Power out for 3 hours.

Jasmine, what does the v notch represent?

Here's a few seconds of what it looked like

Greenage was lovely as it approached and back built. Shot above is in pano and filterless (iPhone X).

Hope for some more overnight :D

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by flatcam »

Blackie wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:19 am Thanks Snowfall.

Shell, yes we are here (Mansfield, Lake Eildon) and were on the boat when this surprise package revealed itself. 22mm in about 30mins. Totally caught in the middle of it as were several others. Power out for 3 hours.

Jasmine, what does the v notch represent?

Here's a few seconds of what it looked like

Greenage was lovely as it approached and back built. Shot above is in pano and filterless (iPhone X).

Hope for some more overnight :D

B
Spectacular image and video Blackie! The green looks awesome.

That storm was a cracker on radar. The meso was visible on doppler for some time, and I also think it moved seperately to the surrounding radar signatures at times.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Foggy spitty night up here with another 0.4mm. Very humid currently with a T/DP of 14C.

Not confident about today. Focus look to be in the northeast, but the upper trough is sharpening and a weak surface trough will develop in central Vic. It will become unstable late, and steering flow remains nwly. There are a few showers in western districts atm so more developing.

Progs rally struggling. EC gone from 20 to 2mm here on the last two runs. GFS, CMC and ACCESS look better. Guess it could land anywhere between about 2 and 20mm.

Am expecting some strong storms out east and they will be dumpers with precip water values around 40mm.

Btw love the photos. Just grey here atm so nothing to see :P
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by JasmineStorm »

@Blackie, great shots. A nice structure on that meso. The v-notch on the radar indicates divergent flow for a huge updraft. Microburst downdrafts can be the result which I think you experienced.

@flatcam, good pick up on the Doppler.

I think I'm right on the fringe for storm development today. I notice a few little breaks in the clouds this morning out west :)
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Decent band of showers and soon to be storms developing over the western districts on the wind change. 18Z GFS seems to have picked this well and thickens it up as it heads east. It arrives in central areas mid arvo a peak heating. The set up looks good for central and eastern areas with the easterly trough deepening and the westerly trough which is running ahead fading to our south.

But... models are sprayed all over the place so not that confident :x
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Didjman »

Fog has broken up here at last. Temp 18/17.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by JasmineStorm »

25c with a 19c Dew Point
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