VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

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hillybilly
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VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by hillybilly » Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:34 am

Thread for the week ahead with north to northeasterly winds developing ahead of a deepening trough. It looks like some tropical moisture will come in from the Indian Ocean in the mid levels, with a monsoon trough developing into a likely TC west of Darwin.

Temperatures will head into the mid to high 30s across most of Vic for Wednesday and Thursday before cooling off later.

Progs a bit jumpy on rain totals. On some runs falls have been locally above 30mm, but on others more like 5-10mm.

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Re: Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30

Post by Didjman » Mon Dec 25, 2017 9:00 am

As I am on leave - bring on the storms :D
Peter

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Re: Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30

Post by hillybilly » Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:05 am

Geez the progs are wiggling. EC has gone from 5 to 40 to 3mm the last three runs for FC. Question appears to be whether development is mainly east of central Vic or includes central areas.

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Re: Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30

Post by Skywalker » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:28 pm

Currently a beautiful warm 27C here on the island. Going to be here until the weekend so the heat over the next few days won't be an issue with the beach nearby. :D

Looking forward to seeing what unfolds later Thursday/Friday.
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Re: Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:36 pm

Latest Access R showing the atmospheric river running at 30 to 40mm in front of the trough on Thursday lunchtime. Need a couple more model runs to know if it sets up properly for a big trigger IMO.... still differences across models.
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Re: Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30

Post by stevco123 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:21 pm

A lot more humidity today. Would be a nicer day if it wasn't for it.
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Re: Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30

Post by weathergasm » Tue Dec 26, 2017 5:34 pm

BOM doesn't seem particularly keen on this event, perhaps the timing is wrong. God knows we've seen our fair share of events where the trigger rolls through a little too early to take advantage of the heating...

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Re: Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30

Post by hillybilly » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:04 am

Progs are really struggling with this one. EC and CMC now showing solid falls through central and eastern Vic,while GFS mainly the east, but with 5-10mm for central areas. ACCESS has a weak rainband entering Vic on Friday, which fades then redevelops over the east on Friday. Guess we could still see anywhere between 3 and 30mm here.

Hot one today, but bit of humidity and late cloud will take the edge off things. Could well see the odd shower late near the SA border.

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:45 pm

Wanting to go fishing western port, everyone on holidays, so I’m very unsure of what to expect weather wise.

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by hillybilly » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:02 pm

Hot one as expected across Vic. 28C here with Cu bubbling overhead and DPS in the humid mid teens.

Weak rainband entering Vic which will fade as it move east. Maybe the odd shower tomorrow. Main rain will be on Friday, but extent to which this will effect West and Central Vic bit unclear with models still struggling to settle down. Access has now come on board for central Vic, but GFS has little interest. EC has been keen, but waiting on next model run to update.

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Didjman » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:03 pm

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:45 pm
Wanting to go fishing western port, everyone on holidays, so I’m very unsure of what to expect weather wise.
Use the apps on ya fone (lightning tracker, radar etc), watch the sky and have fun!

Peter

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:25 pm

Rain and sun is all ok, it’s just those big bolts I’m not too happy with while sitting in an aluminium boat..
Bring on the Whiting...

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Didjman » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:35 pm

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:25 pm
it’s just those big bolts I’m not too happy with while sitting in an aluminium boat..
I remember being on Lake Eildon with my neighbour when that happened. We both looked at each other wide eyed. Guess what we did :D
Peter

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by tonycynic » Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:49 am

Bit of action on the radar this morning, not so much from BOM, 6.45am and the morning forecast is not up. Did I sleep through something?

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Dane » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:57 am

Yes almost 8am and the BOM have still not updated their forecast.

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Onetahuti » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:19 am

Dane wrote:
Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:57 am
Yes almost 8am and the BOM have still not updated their forecast.

From Twitter ----

Our morning public weather products have been delayed due to computing issues. We're currently working on the problem and hope to get them out soon. No significant change to previous forecasts, 31°C in #Melbourne today.

That was posted at 6:06AM so slow progress in fixing issue.

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:22 am

EC had a major power outage on the 00z run last night which took around 6 hours to rectify. That had major flow on effects for met agencies around the world for forecasting ....I'm thinking that maybe why the BoM had issues this morning unless its a coincidence . The BoM hinge a lot of their forecasts on EC and the ensemble, especially for cyclones.

This event is all over the place, from one model run to the next they change signifciantly. Here is some interesting points I've just spotted. EC has plenty of potential in the atmosphere tomorrow afternoon. Access R has the trough sharpening late tomorrow night around central areas.
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by hillybilly » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:33 am

Stinker of a night up here.... and even hotter on the flats. 30C in the city at midnight which is apparently the hottest since March 2016.

Cloudy and spitty the next two days. Showers should pick up later this arvo then again later tomorrow arvo, but not really confident. The surface trough loiters close to central Vic right through as the upper trough sharpens up. Could get 3 or 33mm here :roll:

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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by Jake Smethurst » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:37 am

Could be onto something there JS :)

VICTORIA THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - DAY 1
For Thursday 28th December 2017

Isolated thunderstorms are considered a risk over central and eastern parts of Victoria today, including eastern parts of the western districts. Marginally unstable conditions exist across these areas, and with a trough nearby, forcing may initiate some local activity. The eastern parts have the highest risk for development. Overall, there is a low risk for development and severe thunderstorms are considered unlikely. Cloud is likely to be an inhibiting feature.
Thunderstorm Forecast Day 1 281217.png
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Re: VIC - Becoming hot with showers and storms: December 27-30 2017

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:19 pm

BOM starting to get a little more excited for tomorrow. https://twitter.com/BOM_Vic/status/946245864183525376

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