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Victoria - Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

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hillybilly
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by hillybilly »

Stinker of a morning with most spots already into the mid 20s of above. Wierdly humid also :?

Overnight min in FC was 23, and already up to 26C. DP of 13C with a few spits from the virga.

Today looks hot, humid and cloudy. Very little rain reaching the ground from the initial cloud band, with any proper precip going to develop from mid arvo on the wind change. Showers and storms should fire on the trough as it enters central/north-central from about 2pm. LI headed down to about -5 so plenty of instability, though there is a stable layer near 3km which will take a bit of breaking.

Looks like most precip will be from about Melbourne east, with 2-15mm for east central. Being convective could be more or less, and also hit miss so not entirely confident. Thinking we should see 10mm in FC, but could be 1 or 30mm :o

Week front for tomorrow with a few more showers.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by stevco123 »

Managed to get down below 20 last night (one thing I love about the far outer suburbs - minimal oppressive hot nights).

Classic summer day today. Looking forward to it. :)
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by tonycynic »

Been a slight 3-4c drop in temps in the far SW of the state but plenty of 30s in the metro area. Going to get a bit warmer yet, could be a fun afternoon if there are any triggers for the storms.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by flyfisher »

It might be a dry change as I don't see any development currently from the vis sat or radar. Hope it does build into something, although if it's just high based lightening - well we can do without the resultant fires.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by JasmineStorm »

29c with an 18c dew point.... lovely break in the clouds ahead of the main course :)

Here's my 2 cents worth on the 10.40am sat pic ;)
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by wolfcat »

Don't bother running for the hills...

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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by stevco123 »

About to get very hot and sticky VEERRYYY soon once this cloud clears.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

It's not pleasant at present,
I'm Keeping putting pennies away for real airconditioning.. edit and Batteries for my solar,
That red line as the crow flies should land on this door step.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by JasmineStorm »

33c with a 15c dew point here . As expected, dry surface air will ingest into the atmosphere..... but there is a tonne on energy with this surface heating. Geelong from 28c to 38c, Avalon 29 to 40c within 3 hours :)
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by hillybilly »

Weather out there is putrid. Feels like the western burbs of Sydney in summer :o
It might be a dry change as I don't see any development currently from the vis sat or radar.
Give it another hour. The stable layer around 3000m will take a while to break but once it does the storm tops are headed for 45,000 feet. Latest ACCESS has 10-30mm this arvo through central areas.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by stevco123 »

hillybilly wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:37 pm Weather out there is putrid. Feels like the western burbs of Sydney in summer :o
It might be a dry change as I don't see any development currently from the vis sat or radar.
Give it another hour. The stable layer around 3000m will take a while to break but once it does the storm tops are headed for 45,000 feet. Latest ACCESS has 10-30mm this arvo through central areas.
Please tell me it will happen after 4pm? Gotta catch train from Docklands to Cranbourne.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by Skywalker »

36c here in Sunshine West, 37c up the road in Laverton.

It sure does feel like Sydney out there. I just spent the weekend up that way so I kinda know how it feels. Looks like I brought the weather back with me. :P
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by Hunter1890 »

Should begin to go bang in an hour or so I reckon. Surface heating is gonna make things hasten. Gotta say I'm really ticked off about how the media reports these things. "Thunderstorms, Giant Hail to Batter City". I mean commmeee on. The hyperbole is just extreme. They say that "they are expecting the storm" whereas the BoM say there is a chance. There hasn't even been a STSW put in place (yet) and they're throwing up this rubbish.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by stevco123 »

Hunter1890 wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:50 pm Should begin to go bang in an hour or so I reckon. Surface heating is gonna make things hasten. Gotta say I'm really ticked off about how the media reports these things. "Thunderstorms, Giant Hail to Batter City". I mean commmeee on. The hyperbole is just extreme. They say that "they are expecting the storm" whereas the BoM say there is a chance. There hasn't even been a STSW put in place (yet) and they're throwing up this rubbish.
And it makes it worse when you have colleagues around you reading that news and going "damn, I didn't bring my umbrella. they're saying it's gonna storm". That's where the office weather nerd steps in and tries to explain to everyone that it is not certainty, with blank faces looking at you.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by StratoBendigo »

Temp has jumped to 36c here now. Wind has picked up too from the NW.

BSCH reckons a 40% chance of supercell later this afternoon. Probably too dry for that IMO.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by JasmineStorm »

It's about to pop near the Mallee / Wimmera...

edit - Models last runs have significantly underestimated the heat on the western side of Melbourne. This is becoming very interesting...
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by stevco123 »

Radar showing some development now, but looks to me like it is all very too fast moving.

Waiting for a few more updates to see how we go.

EDIT>>> Rapid development just past Mildura. It needs to develop here right now or we might be too far west for anything proper.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by Sean »

Intensely fast moving. Looks like it'll develop past the metro, with the NE and Pakenham way being the targets as usual
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by Andy »

Temp dropped here nearly 10 degrees - Wind now as strong but from SW. Nice bit of relief, also had a few spits of huge raindrops but that's about it! It certainly does look threatening still but I wouldn't expect too much down here now.
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Re: Becoming hot with a thunder change: Dec 16-19

Post by wolfcat »

These storms are very fast moving and appearing out of nowhere.
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