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Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by wolfcat »

And up to 73mm at Bentleigh East, which does equal what the bottom end of the BOM's forecast on Friday morning for this event was.

So they were correct.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by stevco123 »

The key was the low shifting on gfs' model on Thursday night.

But still, over 70mm for this event is amazing.

La Nina is here!
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Sean »

stevco123 wrote: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:17 pm The key was the low shifting on gfs' model on Thursday night.

But still, over 70mm for this event is amazing.

La Nina is here!
I really do think La Nina will bump summer rainfall this year despite its 'complicated' status.

Events like this don't ever seem to be a one-off type of thing. The drivers are still there. They probably won't be to this scale, but they will happen.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Jake Smethurst »

So have been at work since 3pm, just as the convergence was beginning to develop west of Melbourne. I drove into the city with quite a heavy drizzle. It was an absolutely crazy shift with the weather causing all sorts of problems for the rail network. Fortunately in my job I’m able to watch the weather closely so it was absolutely amazing seeing the convergence really take shape across the Melbourne area as the low deepened and moved around with a mind of its own. Drove back home just now and it’s still raining, albeit not like it was before, but the roads are certainly not nice to be on this evening, especially with the amount of water just laying on them plus the several traffic lights out. Our local gauge is saying around 43mm since 9am so that’s a handy fall in this neck of the woods. Takes the event total to around 65-70mm with a few more mm’s to come by the looks of things. The wind though at the moment has picked up on the back end of this low, I don’t think people really were ready for that, there’s plenty of debris laying around the place.

It’s hard to know if the rain will clear out or continue, but lighter, for the rest of the night. As mentioned above, latest access indicating it will persist through the night, though radar suggests otherwise. Who knows, it’s still very much up to the track of the low system, it seems to be much more of a rogue one than many others I’ve experienced and had the opportunity to forecast and analyse. Models have handled it poorly overall.

I think that’s enough writing for now, has been awesome reading everyone’s comments for this thread! Hopefully flooded regions don’t cop too much damage.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Still coming down in the Dandenongs. Event now on 140mm. 24 hour total is 89mm and has risen 4mm that last hour so we could well crack the ton. This will now be our best event since February 2012 (which was one of the biggest in 100 years - probably 2 or 3).

I do wonder what this would have looked like if the catchment had been wet in the lead up. Things stated dry and we've still managed to get floods :?
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Tassiedave »

Still raining heavily here! Up to 40 mm. Big chance of breaking the December 24 hour record in Launceston which stands at a modest 46 mm. Lots of fantastic falls around the state.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Onetahuti »

Event total of 66mm, maybe at the lower end of totals in the area but happy with it. Tanks are over flowing and the garden has had a thoroughly good soaking over 48+hours thus the moisture will have penetrated deeper than if only a deluge over a short period.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by hillybilly »

93.6mm since 9am and still rising. 90 minutes to crack the ton which might be a bit too much from this point.

148mm for the event. That's near the top of the model guidance for us. EC did show around 200mm on one run, but most runs where in the 100 to 150mm range (or less).

Great for the fire season. It was looking pretty ordinary a few days back with things running about a month ahead of where they should have been, but now all reset :D
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by BringOnTheCoolChange »

Wooo 89mm since 9am yesterday, may hit the 100 mark before it hIts 9am, I think we would be around 150mm for whole event now
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Didjman »

Just tipped out another 20mm, so event total now 68mm for here for the event. Baro now 1007.8 and rising with a still brisk southerly at times. Temp10/9.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by JasmineStorm »

Very nice totals racking up. Even Melbourne city 44mm so far in 24 hours. Its going to be very interesting to see the overall maps of the event in the end. 44mm for here, could of been anything if the low was a little further west on Saturday morning.

The rain hit maps in the last 48 hours are impressive from the BOM.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Skywalker »

Another 2.5mm recorded after 10pm last night to take my total to 48.5mm.

Looks like I have the lowest total on this forum, which isn't too difficult to achieve considering most of you don't live in the western desert. Still, a very welcome result. :D

Should pick-up a few more mm's in showers today, before things start clearing. Then it's back to boring cool dry conditions for the rest of the week here.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by HarleyB »

StratoBendigo would have had less Skywalker, but yeah, considering that's on the low end, pretty great going I think.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by JasmineStorm »

chillout wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:48 am Another downgrade! System one of the greatest fizzers of all time. 'Biblical' / 'atomic' / waterbomb. Please. May get 25mm in Melb. It's a northern NSW/Qld event now goodnight folks
I see a PWS near Gaffney street in Pascoe Vale is around 90mm for the thread so far :hysteria:
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by wolfcat »

84mm in the gauge this morning.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Just fell short of the ton with 94mm. Event on 158mm at our place on Dunns Hill which is the highest point in the southern Dandenongs. Drizzle set back in so not done yet.

Wrap around is coming back towards the Bass Coast so may well see it pick up for a while across central areas.

Top score in central Vic so far is 229mm at Mt St Leonard. They could easily see another 20mm up there so 250mm is a chance. Central rainfall round up below.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60179.html

Lot of the Melbourne metro east of the city has seen around 100mm give or take. Pretty amazing there hasn't been worse flooding given how many sites have seen 150 to 200mm in north central and northeast.

Great to see everyone here get some, though geez this will cause trouble for Ag. While a massive summer rain event is great for our forests, catchments and gardens it all wrong for most farmers which look to drier weather this time of year.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Tassiedave »

Heavy snowfall on Tasmanian Central Plateau after 30 plus temps on Thursday . Highland Lakes Road from Bothwell to Miena is closed due to snow. Launceston has broken its December 24 hr record with 51.8 mm.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Dane »

26.0mm's in the 24 hours to 9am here. Event total is 54.2mm's on the low side of things compared to others
even in other parts of Crabourne but still a really good result.
51.6mm's in the last 48 hours here making it my highest 48 hour total since 13/14 November 2013 when 66.5mm's fell.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Gordon »

Tassiedave wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:28 am Heavy snowfall on Tasmanian Central Plateau after 30 plus temps on Thursday . Highland Lakes Road from Bothwell to Miena is closed due to snow. Launceston has broken its December 24 hr record with 51.8 mm.
Fantastic to see Tassie sharing the love!
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by snowfall »

59.2mm here. As Jasmine said, had the low been a little further west, it could have been quite a different outcome. Even so, it was a great drop of steady, soaking rain, and puts us well within striking distance of the December monthly average. Currently 11.6c, so still feeling rather wintry. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the month unfolds, and whether we continue with stormy and wet conditions. Looks like quite a cool to mild week coming up.
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