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Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

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hillybilly
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Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by hillybilly »

A big rain event showing up for the first week of December with a strong upper trough and front running into the back of hot and humid (tropical air) over eastern Australia. The system is slow moving with heavy falls likely.

It does looks like almost the whole state should see 20 to 100mm, with very heavy falls showing up around the eastern ranges. If this comes off, I'd guess the biggest event since 2010/11/12 (???).

The system could split a bit (EC scenario) which would concentrate falls in some areas and reduce them in others.

Here's the current model consensus for the event. Those totals are generally near or above the monthly average for December.

Image

CMC has been keen on this for a long-time with the current rainfall map below.

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Re: Major rain event: First week of December

Post by Tassiedave »

Are we seeing a bit of a drift East for the event on the last couple of GFS runs? Still some decent falls predicted though,
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Re: Major rain event: First week of December

Post by Gordon »

The fascinating thing about this event is the fact that Water & Land (and other models obviously) have been consistently predicting big, widespread falls for days now - and we're still 3 days out.

I can't remember any event for Vic where such consistency has applied for a forecast event of this scale? Hope it holds... And fingers and toes crossed for Tassie, Dave!
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Re: Major rain event: First week of December

Post by JasmineStorm »

Mother nature just woke me and said I have to have a look what it’s about to serve up.

I’m enforcing a ‘not looking beyond a 100 hour rule’ on this post but…it looks atomic. If this sets up in the right position on Friday, it could trigger a multi cored cutoff low that attacks central and eastern Victoria through into the weekend. Once it cuts off, the models will fall apart and it will be best to watch by observation only. Currently it has a polar injection at 500 hPa, simmering water of south east Vic and a tropical fire hydrant feed.

Dec 1st 1934 event comes to mind. Watch for the upgrades around Thursday

My 2 cents worth ;)
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Re: Major rain event: First week of December

Post by Gordon »

Woohoo! The return of JS - that has to be a good sign :). And as per my post just now in the La Nina thread, warmest of welcomes back!
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Re: Major rain event: First week of December

Post by StratoBendigo »

Gordon wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:15 am Woohoo! The return of JS - that has to be a good sign :). And as per my post just now in the La Nina thread, warmest of welcomes back!
I'll second that.

Looking at the forecast charts - the Low looks to be positioned more inland than what the 1934 system (and Feb 2005 cyclone) was. But, yeah, if it winds up in Bass Strait then who knows what'll happen...

It looks like around 50mm in these parts. More in the South-east and along the ranges.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Yes, a very warm (and stormy) welcome back to JS! :) Glad to see your two cents worth!

Certainly looking very good across most weather models, and our lovely Water and Land map above which takes into account several models hasn't looked that impressive for quite a while. I'm amazed by the consistency of the models for this event, although we are still a few days out so there will be the regular shifts here and there for the greatest falls. Majority of the latest guidance suggests to me the heaviest of the falls are moving gradually east, however still indicating widespread healthy totals across most of the state. One thing's for sure, we need a good drink and hopefully this system provides!
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by StratoBendigo »

And the BOM are still downplaying it:

i.e Friday for Bendigo - Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Horts »

Really hoping the majority of this plays out on Friday, Partner and I have our engagement party on Saturday and don't really feel like being under water for it! :?

Quick look at Stormcast has us in the clear on the Peninsula between 1pm-7pm so fingers, toes and everything else well and truly crossed!

Also welcome back JS, always enjoyed your posts!
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Jake Smethurst »

StratoBendigo wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:27 am And the BOM are still downplaying it:

i.e Friday for Bendigo - Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm.
I heard somewhere the BoM are waiting either for tonights update or tomorrows update to reflect what models are saying. Their fear was jumping on the bandwagon to only have to downgrade forecasts as we've seen plenty of times before. They cop a lot of flack most of the time, so I'd say their reasoning is justified.

Just coming back to today's weather, and we've updated the thunderstorm forecast for today. If people aren't enjoying these, please let me know and I'll stop posting them - we should have our website back and updated over the next week so they'll go there when it's up and running again but I can still post them here if people wish.

VICTORIA THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - DAY 1
Tuesday 28th November 2017

Broadly unstable conditions across parts of the state today means the slight risk for isolated thundery showers this afternoon within the "chance" area; these are slightly more likely near seabreeze convergence zones during the afternoon through the southern part of the "chance" zone. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are likely across the eastern ranges where there is a better lifting mechanism, and convection has already been observed via satellite through these areas. All severe phenomena is possible with thunderstorms today, although only a low risk. For Melbourne, only a slight chance of a thundery shower developing this afternoon, better prospects later in the week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Day 1 281117.png
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Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by stevco123 »

Welcome back JS! :)

Jake, please keep posting the storm charts here. It is convenient and easy to understand.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Gordon »

Please keep'em coming Jake - great resource.

A few puffys popping up here; nothing spectacular but growing quite quickly nonetheless.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Skywalker »

Congratulations on your engagement Horts, and a big welcome back to Jasmine. :D

Watching this one with interest. I'm unable to travel down to the Island this weekend so I'm a little nervous about the house. Haven't had a chance to clean out the gutters so I'm hoping nothing major happens down there.

Beautiful morning for the ride into work this morning btw. Absolutely perfect. :sun:
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by snowfall »

Welcome back JS! It's great to have your fine-tuned analyses, and reports from Kyneton.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by HarleyB »

Jasmine! Absolutely brilliant to have you back, we've missed you! :D :D

Some bubblies to the East and South-East of here, nothing threatening to become taller at this stage though. Must say the air has a lot less of a humid feel to it today, even though dew points are still in double digits here.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by StratoBendigo »

00Z GFS has a 997 HPa low bombing over the Riverina on Saturday. Bizarre.

Rain totals ramped up for us too.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Wilko »

The BOM now starting to come onboard with Melb 3 day totals up to 50mm
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Dane »

Verry humid today DP are in the high teens around town.
Hope that rain event comes off - need the rain.
Looks like I will have my driest November since my records stsrted in 2002 at this location.
21.5mm's MTD - record low is 25.4 in 2002.
Some impressive looking convection over the ranges to the NE of here.
When was trhe last time there were no Thunderstorms in some part of the state?
Last edited by Dane on Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by Skywalker »

Yep, I certainly noticed the humidity on the bike tonight. Could see that development in the far distance towards the North East while I was riding.
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Re: Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

Post by JasmineStorm »

Thanks for the warm welcome back everyone.... didn't think anyone would have noticed my atmospheric slumber ;)

Just sipping on my 7.30 G&T, analysing the latest batch of data. All the normal chopping and changing you would expect with a complicated weather recipe. Looking forward to getting a good look at Access R tomorrow. The BoM's severe weather dept will be limbering up in the hallways, itching sweaty palms, fielding calls from media trying to squeeze an apocalyptic quote out of them. I reckon the BoM should upgrade their Weatherzone membership to give themselves a fighting chance with this one :)

Now....I'm seeing an equatorial squeeze of tropical juice from both sides of the continent. Atmospheric river is starting come together...http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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