Victoria: Thundery then a major rain event - 28th Nov to 4th Dec 2017

[Didjman]

Just tipped out another 16 mm, which adds up to 64mm so far
Peter

[snowfall]

A few more light showers yesterday and today has brought us up to 61.9mm for the event. Still very cool for the time of year, with a maximum of 15.9c and currently 12.7c.

@HB. That's quite an amazing amount of rain over in Ferny Creek. Must be very muddy!

[neil275]

A band of rain from the east going through the Northern Country at the moment. Just had a short downpour with a few rumbles. Event total now 69 mm.

[hillybilly]

@HB. That's quite an amazing amount of rain over in Ferny Creek. Must be very muddy!

Volcanic soil which mean it never really gets muddy. It is squelchy under foot, but it drains so fast into the soil. We've still got some puddles which is something I haven't seen up here for nearly five years. They'll be gone by tomorrow (only to appear in the springs lower on the mountain in some months or years time ). I've been a bit surprised that there isn't a lot more water flowing, but seven below average months in a row here and a very warm spring meant things were dry in this soils (but not now ). Usually I'd expect quite a bit of flooding from all the rain here, but not to be.

EC downgraded a bit for mid week, GFS upgrades, and CMC also backed off.

[hillybilly]

Bit of instability today, particularly northeast and north central. Could well see a thundery here this arvo. Currently, looks like the developing low will only affect Gippsland, but will allow a front to come up from the southwest with a band of showers on Thursday to finish the event. Then... all clears for a sunny and warm weekend

[JasmineStorm]

Tasman is boiling at the moment. some place off NZ south island around 5c above average. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/o ... 23,-37.973

[hillybilly]

Quite a few showers and storms showing on radar in the northeast and east, with a few near the central ranges. Just keeps ticking the event totals along.

Should be quite a wet night, particularly out east.

Solid front for Thursday to close our the event with CMC, GFS and access all showing moderate to locally heavy falls. Could well be another 20-30mm in the usual wet spots such as the Yarra Ranges.

[Tassiedave]

Severe weather warning issued for the East Coast of Tasmania. Falls up to 90 mm in the next 12 hours possible.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT21037.shtml

[hillybilly]

Weirdly humid day here today despite the southerly. Can really feel the impact of all the warm water around us (see Tasman Sea below). Could make for some interesting summer weather if we get the Synoptics



Solid front for tomorrow which should produce 10-20mm in this usual wet spots. Could well see locally 25mm plus, but the link to the tropics isn't great and the front is fairly fast so won't cause too much trouble. Behind it the air is quite cold, with 850Ts getting close to 0C so could well see the odd flurry in the alps. Steady warm up into the next week.