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VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Wilko »

Now that everyone’s had a little bit of a entree this morning hopefully we get some clearance now for massive storms this arvo :o
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Didjman »

Latest satpic shows stuff developing in the clear area over the Malley :D Bring it on!
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by HarleyB »

More rain now here and almost constant thunder. I like the Broadmeadows radar in a way, it underestimates the rainfall intensity so we get a nice surprise when it's heavier than I expect.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Dane »

That thunder this morning makes it 8 thunderdays for the month.
equals my all time Cranbourne record of 8 thunderdays in December 2005.
My all time record is still 10 thunderdays in November 1976 in Oakleigh.
My thunder day record goes back to 1972 in several locations in
Melbournes Eastern and SE suburbs. Cranbourne since 2002.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Jake Smethurst »

That's great stuff minus the lack of rainfall Dane! We're getting an almighty downpour at the moment in Cheltenham with a couple of cells that developed right overhead - couldn't tell you if there's any thunder in it, can't hear over the rain! :D

EDIT: Never mind, heard some more thunder :)

Today's thunderstorm forecast:

VICTORIA THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - DAY 1
Sunday 26th November 2017

A very active day of thunderstorms anticipated. At time of issue, non-severe thunderstorms were already occurring across parts of northern and central Victoria. A trough in the west will slowly move towards the east today, to be located near central regions late in the day. The mobility of the trough, coupled with a very unstable and moist atmospheric environment will lead to the development of further thunderstorms as the day progresses. There is likely to be a particular focus for development near the trough. Thunderstorm development is also expected to be aided by an upper trough within the region. Regarding severe weather, all severe phenomena are possible in any thunderstorm today, however severe thunderstorms are more likely across much of northern and central Victoria (including Melbourne). There is also a fairly good chance thunderstorm organisation may occur through the "severe thunderstorms likely" area this afternoon and evening. Guidance suggests supercell thunderstorms are possible, therefore there is also a higher than usual risk for a tornado occurring. Steering is expected to be towards the southeast from the northwest, however please note if any supercell thunderstorm develops, these may track in a different direction than the rest of the activity. The potential for thunderstorms exists across the west until later in the day, and will remain a risk for central regions generally up until midnight. For Melbourne, severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening capable of producing all severe phenomena. Please note, the only limiting factor for today will be cloud cover.
Thunderstorm Forecast Day 1 261117.png
Thunderstorm Forecast Day 1 261117.png (56.07 KiB) Viewed 8735 times
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Wilko »

Has anyone got a great Sat Loop for Victoria that shows possible thunderstorm development
I have previously used the BOM and also BSCH but need to know the best one ..cheers
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Quiet Eery out there today, the odd crying dog.
Some rain over night and very early this morning,
It's now slipping past us, above and below.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Tassiedave »

Wow the models are looking good for Thursday, Friday and Saturday next week!
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Macca2395 »

Very dark and thundery here in the Macedon Ranges. Looks like some nice development to the north and south of Lancefield with a decent light show over the Cobaw Ranges just beyond the township. I'm in my car for most of the afternoon heading to and from the CBD. Hopefully i'll get a decent view of all the action! Fingers crossed!
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by tonycynic »

Hope it is clear on the Sunday, last market day for InDustyRealDesigns. Meanwhile, getting a few rumbles here, not getting any sunshine so not sure about the development here later. Lets hope it clears for a bit.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by snowfall »

Lots of thunder around here at the moment. Had just over 5mm yesterday and overnight.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by snowfall »

Just had a lightning strike just took the power out momentarily. Raining heavily now.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Didjman »

Got no decent pics or vid from that last "wave" due "sheet" lightning - but got an awesome sound recording! CC's rumbling across the sky from right to left, culminating in deep booms, will sound pretty cool :D
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Jake Smethurst »

After some good heavy rain this morning I’ve headed down to a local food spot in Parkdale for brunch with the partner. Managed to see a lovely CG over the bay on the way down from the stuff moving over that area.

Wilko I still use either the BSCH or BoM satellite, especially since the new H-Sat was made public. One can see developing convection through the west and northwest currently.
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by typhoon29 »

sun is out cooking the moist ground, only a matter of time also very steamy and hot!
Ballarat, Home of the Anti-Thunderstorm Shield!
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Wilko »

Thanks Jake
There is some development near Ballarat currently
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Band of storms developing in the clear air south and west of Ballarat. This area is seeing LI down around -5 so intense instability.

This should track into central area by 5pm so should end in a bit of a bang.

Now that’s what should happen, but it might not of course ;)
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Didjman »

Sun about to come out here. Just finsished a high quality 1.5hr thunder recording!
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Horts »

Sun is back so Beach it is!

Took this a couple hours ago heading down the back of the Peninsula towards Phillip Island way..

Stormcast for this arvo looks insane!
3908E82A-FB8C-4FB9-BDF9-D851F529C6AF.jpeg
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Didjman »

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in Central, Northern Country and parts of Mallee, South West, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:50 pm Sunday, 26 November 2017.
Weather Situation:
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Wodonga and Wangaratta.
Thunderstorms are likely to spread eastwards over the next several hours.
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