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VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

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hillybilly
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VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like another long warm to hot spell with showers and storms becoming widespread. Monday looks mainly fine, but from then every day will see showers and storms, initially about the ranges but becoming more general. Could becoming rather hot by late in the event, but on most days humidity and cloud will cap the rise. Could well see some records fall for days above thresholds with long long warm spells pretty uncommon in November.
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Gordon »

It really will be incredible if this pattern holds for another 10 days!

Clear break for us today with no sign of rain in the general area and not much state-wide, so probably a good day for a reset and avoiding going back through 30 pages of thread by the end of it :) .
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Tassiedave »

I believe the record number of consecutive days of 25 degrees plus in Hobart for November is three. If the current forecast holds out the new record will be six with possibility it could grow to nine.
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Wilko »

Love this weather
Quite amazing run of humid weather and should see some records tumble especially with the minimum overnight temps
Access G showing something In about 10days time but that's a long way out
Persistent easterlies mean poor conditions for surf ☹️ But
Looking forward to some more storm action later this week 😉
I have a new camera so I will have to try it out !
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Tassiedave »

Launceston forecast temps next 7 days: 28,28,28,30,27,27,27. Average so far this month is 22.6 Record for November is 22.5 in 2007.
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by hillybilly »

Launceston forecast temps next 7 days: 28,28,28,30,27,27,27. Average so far this month is 22.6 Record for November is 22.5 in 2007.
Tas is headed for an exceptionally warm November... a real out of the ball park type of month that completely rewrites the record books. Plenty of other records lurking including days above 25C in Hobart, days above 30C in Melbourne and nights about 15C in Melbourne. There will (likely) be too many odd days above records to keep track of. I'm a fan of warm humid weather, but this is getting pretty extreme.

I'm not seeing much change in the models. Warm to hot and humid from now to at least the start of December. Showers and storms a chance most days, becoming more widespread later this week and then again middle of next week. Tuesday and Wednesday look like being fair sparse, but will still be a chance.
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Wilko »

I think this humid warmth may continue to Xmas 🙃
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by hillybilly »

Off to a warm start today and another hot unstable arvo coming up. Progs have the odd thundery shower, mainly about the ranges, but potentially extending into parts of central Vic. A bit more widespread tomorrow.

Weekend is shapping up as wet with lots of showers and storms (oh and next week looks warm to hot as well :? ).
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by stevco123 »

hillybilly wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:07 am Off to a warm start today and another hot unstable arvo coming up. Progs have the odd thundery shower, mainly about the ranges, but potentially extending into parts of central Vic. A bit more widespread tomorrow.

Weekend is shapping up as wet with lots of showers and storms (oh and next week looks warm to hot as well :? ).
Must be coming up to summer i suppose :D

Certainly a bit warmer than usual, but the humidity just ruins it.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Hunter1890 »

This humid heat is just oppressive. I despise it. I'm genuinely worried about the climate at the moment. If it weren't for the string of cooler days at the start of this month it would easily be the warmest November on record. I sure hope this doesn't become the norm... As HB said, this abnormal warmth will continue into next week.
-Budding Climate Nerd-
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by stevco123 »

Not worried at all about records falling, since they only go back 150 or so years. We don't accurately know what Novembers were like back in 1700, or 1300, or even in the much warmer period before Jesus was born.

The heat isn't abnormal for November, it's just the duration of it.

Currently 29 in Cranbourne West. Surely we can squeeze a few more millimetres before months' end?

I've been keeping an eye on the Thunderstorm outlook from Weatherzone in the last few weeks, and it seems to be pretty accurate (saying there will be no storms wven though they're in the forecast, or vice-versa.

It seems this Sunday is THE day for big storms with the area around Melbourne shaded red, and then again next Thursday as has already been suggested on here by others.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by mick »

An intersting cloud pattern the likes of which I havent seen before.

A ring of cloud moving from the south fed by a tail.

http://satview.bom.gov.au/
vic.JPG
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Blackie »

Fabulous clouds around lately Mick. I shot this one last night toward Mt Buller.

Thundery and dark around Mansfield presently with frequent thunder.
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Wilko »

Occasional storms
High humidity
Balmy nights
Ave temp about 30
We are officially in Brisbane 😎
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Tassiedave »

Today's maximum temperatures in Tasmania Campania 32.5 degrees, Scotts Peak 33 degrees, Ouse 32.4, Bushy Park 32.4, Strahan 30.0, Hobart 29.3, Launceston 28.0, Wynyard 21.3
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Sean »

stevco123 wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:28 am Not worried at all about records falling, since they only go back 150 or so years. We don't accurately know what Novembers were like back in 1700, or 1300, or even in the much warmer period before Jesus was born.

The heat isn't abnormal for November, it's just the duration of it.

Currently 29 in Cranbourne West. Surely we can squeeze a few more millimetres before months' end?

I've been keeping an eye on the Thunderstorm outlook from Weatherzone in the last few weeks, and it seems to be pretty accurate (saying there will be no storms wven though they're in the forecast, or vice-versa.

It seems this Sunday is THE day for big storms with the area around Melbourne shaded red, and then again next Thursday as has already been suggested on here by others.
Again, Stevco, you always seem to forget about the rising ocean levels, melting permafrost and retreating glaciers that prove without a doubt that the planet was cooler and more stable before the Industrial Revolution. Glaciers don't melt and the ocean does not rise unless the earth is capturing increased thermal radiation (it's simple physics). And since the orbit of Earth is currently ruled out and because the sun hasn't grown in luminosity, the only difference is the changing composition of our atmosphere (itself a thermal blanket).

I'll stop here before I'm told off again.


On topic: can see a few towers going up, but it's going to be the train that couldn't today IMO. Hoping I'm wrong. Missed out the other day. I did get some thundery showers, but nothing substantial. Really need some dang rain. Everything is so dry. Good thing it's been humid. However, thank god there's been no wind.
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Dane »

Great Pic Blackie
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by mick »

Tassiedave wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:57 pm Today's maximum temperatures in Tasmania Campania 32.5 degrees, Scotts Peak 33 degrees, Ouse 32.4, Bushy Park 32.4, Strahan 30.0, Hobart 29.3, Launceston 28.0, Wynyard 21.3
The land of ABC is in dire straits.
I fear a repeat of the , was it 1967 fires?
So dry, just fly over it and its very very bad, so dry.
Doesnt look like the tassie of old at all.
Central gipps is below 50% of average rainfall.
Get past moe morwell etc and its all dry.

The jungle drums are beating cyclones up north this year.
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Re: Summery and becoming unstable: November 20-30

Post by Rivergirl »

Love that cloud Blackie
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Re: VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Definitely an awesome photo Blackie! It’s beautiful!

Let’s keep the thread on topic please. The unstable and warm weather persisting, it truly is quite remarkable. Was nice to see a few localised showers and storms about the eastern ranges and around the Latrobe Valley this afternoon. Some handy little falls under those.

For tomorrow (Wednesday), focus for showers and storms will be about the eastern ranges and also across parts of the southwest near a seabreeze convergence zone. Central district (including Melbourne) may see some convective development and a shower or storm, though relatively low chance.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
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