VIC: Summery & unstable (Part2) - November 20-30 2017

[HarleyB]

Looks like Neil is about to have a bit of fun!

[neil275]

Wind has really picked up here. Been sitting outside watching the light show. Thunder now close. Radar looks great!

[hillybilly]

Funny that the models almost got it in the end Just drifted a bit too far west. Gotta say this has been one of the most confusing few days of weather I've seen. Pressure patterns too subtle, a weak and diffuse upper trough and buckets of humidity. Am struggling to think of a recent week or two like those we've just seen (and there's another week to come).

We had some rumbles early morning and another 2 and a bit mms of precip. Foggy and drizzly now. Makes for five thunderdays in a row. Don't think I've ever "heard" that before in Melbourne???

Event here is a touch over 15mm so ok in the end, and adds to the 45mm the week before.

Progs looking very promising for the week ahead.

[Gordon]

Here's something you don't see every day (maybe once every few years) - Water & Land rainfall forecast for Friday:



Of course it remains to be seen if it holds together, but even as an average of several model 4 days out, impressive!

Meanwhile, another 4mm overnight from the edge of the Ballarat storm so 11mm for the system.

[StratoBendigo]

It's as if someone pressed "LaNina", and bingo - 75mm in past 10 days after not much at all in the first 2.5 months of Spring.

EC reckons 40mm or so here Thursday-Friday.

[occluded]

Crikes, OCF ensemble showing 24mm and 38mm here for Thursday and Friday.

[typhoon29]

had 20mm from that storm; 30mm for the whole weekend, not bad.

[Skywalker]

Here's something you don't see every day (maybe once every few years) - Water & Land rainfall forecast for Friday:

That sums up my reaction after the hysterical predictions leading up to the previous past 24 hours. Might need boats if it actually comes off.

[Tassiedave]

Rainfall till 9 am in Tasmania Scotts Peak Dam 52 mm, Quamby Bluff 40 mm, Meander 35 mm, Lorinna 32 mm, Hobart 18 mm, Maydena 17 mm, Sheffield 13 mm, Ross 10 mm, Deloraine 9 mm, Devonport 5 mm, St Helens 3 mm, Launceston 2 mm, Bicheno 1 mm.

Launceston 25.6 degrees at 1.00 pm.

[Wilko]

6.8mm for part 2
14.2 for part 1 following the trend for a very dry year here
111.2mm so far for spring
Average for Spring is 196.2

ytd is 495mm
Ave is 644mm
We are short about 150mm

fingers crossed for later the week but if the trend continues it won't be much
Expecting 20mm if we are lucky or should I be optimistic of a rare La Nina for Summer ?

[StratoBendigo]

Photos and story on the hail damage North-west of Bendigo yesterday afternoon:
http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/sto ... ria/?cs=80

[Dane]

Great pics in that article SB thanks for that.
Would have loved a bit of that rain down here.
Despite 8 thunderdays this month only 21.5mm,s MTD here.
Still some storms firing today over the eastern ranges.
Can see the CB tops from here.

[StratoBendigo]

00Z GFS is sticking with approx. 60mm for us at the end of the week...

[Tassiedave]

This has happened a bit lately! Central north of Tassie right up there for warmth! Max Temps today: Launceston 29.5, Brisbane 29.0, Adelaide 27.9, Perth 27.7, Sydney 25.0, Hobart 22.5, Melbourne 21.2.

Launceston November average = 20.5
Launceston record November average = 22.5 in 2007
Current Launceston November average = 24.0

Coming up 27,29,31

[neil275]

Liking the look of the Yarrawonga radar at the moment. Hoping those storms north of the border push south. Sky looking very black to the north of me.

[neil275]

Storms now coming from the north, east and south-east! Could be a big night.

[snowfall]

Event total of 14.4mm here, after another 6.2mm yesterday and overnight. Many other areas in the Central Ranges seemed to have had quite a bit more, while others had less, which really shows just how hit and miss the system was overall. MTD is on 59.8mm. So will probably sneak a bit past 60mm if we get some rain on Thursday. Not too bad overall, but average is about 80mm, so we will probably fall a little short. Interesting system though, with a fair bit of thunder and lightning on most days in these parts and quite a sub-tropical feel to the weather - very unlike a typical November.

[neil275]

Eerie feeling here right now. Very dark, with storms closing in from all directions. Strong bursts of wind every now and then and rumbles getting closer. Hoping it all holds together. Could be massive.

[neil275]

Well that was disappointing. Those storms just died on my doorstep. Only a short shower of rain. Oh well, at least there was a bit of thunder and lightning around to keep me enthused.

[hillybilly]

Another 1.6mm for us from drizzle yesterday. MTD is about 90mm so OK, but still nearly 20mm below average. That makes for 7 months in a row below average Most months have got near average but consistently fallen below.

Is a chance we could pick up a stray shower or storm this arvo and again tomorrow, but more likely they will stick to the northeast and ranges.