Steady warming trend the coming week with temperatures into the mid 20s to 30s on the weekend, and higher into the following work week. Could well see mid to high 30s widespread next week with uppers approach 20C at 850hPa. At this stage not really seeing record heat (beating the 2012 heatwave for absolute heat would be a hard ask - that one broke the Vic record by nearly 2C) but we will see a very long stretch of warmth if GFS is correct. CMC and EC have been a bit more progressive, but still looks like being warm until at least middle of next week.
Chance for the odd thundery around the northeast ranges from about Saturday where the uppers stay a bit cooler, and then becoming a bit more widespread as the trough approaches sometime next week. The uppers stay southerly well into next week which will keep the atmosphere dry and prevent widespread storms despite the decent east to northeast surface flow.
Thinking by the end of this event that Vic may well be running ahead of average for November, so a stark turnaround.
Looking okay this morning for western half of the state on the 15th with GFS and ACCESS showing something, and EC quite keen on a decent drop spread over a few days starting Monday, with Wednesday around 20mm for us.
Still a few days out though so won't clean the gutters just yet!
First of the warmer days today with winds turning off shore (though with sea breezes). Should make for a really nice day today and then again on the weekend.
Interesting that Melbourne almost broke it's record for a run of days below 20C (at the start of November) yesterday - if it had failed to reach 20C it would have been the first time on record that the first 9 days didn't reach 20C.
Next week look interesting with a good tropical infeed and low middle of the week.
23C here yesterday and looks similar today. Quite a bit of upper level cloud with fairly good mid and high level moisture (precip water values are in the 20 to 30mm range). Below that quite unstable, but low level moisture isn't great so will convect, but like yesterday be hit and miss.
Looks like the next four days are going to be similar with temps slowly warming, the odd shower or storm mainly about the ranges. Then starts to become much more extensive later on Tuesday in Wednesday with a trough moving in and remaining very slow moving. EC, GFS and ACCESS stall the system for quite a few days so could well be a productive and long lived showers/storm event with plenty of warm humid weather. EC has showers and storm for central and eastern areas every day from around Wednesday to at least Saturday.
Btw lots of false echoes on the radar owing to a strong surface inversion and strong contrasts in moisture. The uppers are getting toastie while sea breezes and overnight cooling is seeing some much cooler temperatures.
24.4C in FC yesterday. Looks similar the next two days, with the odd shower or storm on the ranges. Southerly winds in the mid levels favour the northeast ranges and area around Macedon. Might also see something on the north side of the Otway and Latrobe Valley.
System for mid week firming, tough quite a bit of variation across the models. EC and ACCESS have heavy falls through central and eastern areas, while CMC and GFS tend to keep the heaviest falls out east (but have been jumping a lot). Seems to come down to whether the trough cuts off and slows down and where.
Absolutely beautiful conditions yesterday; reached a lovely top of 26 degrees late in the afternoon and didn't drop below 20 degrees until after 9pm. So far today it has been another fine and sunny day after morning cloud. Up to 23 so far with a southwesterly breeze flowing, although if winds tend more southeast wouldn't be surprised to see another late higher maximum.
Both yesterday and today I've noticed a bit of convective development about the place, particularly looking towards the ranges. Shows there is instability around the state, and as observed so far yesterday and today a few localised showers and thunderstorms have popped up mostly over the eastern ranges. The Macedon ranges region this afternoon is in with a risk of a thundery shower, otherwise most development will continue over the eastern ranges until the evening.
Tomorrow the moisture profile builds a little more with a few areas of focus. A trough near the east of the state coupled with regular daytime heating should be enough for a few localised showers and storms again in that region. The ranges overall could provide enough of a lifting mechanism for the odd thundery shower to develop during the afternoon. And lastly, a seabreeze convergence (very similar risk compared to today and last couple of days) over the southwest of the state extending into central parts could see some isolated showers and storms during the afternoon. Nothing too severe or out of the ordinary, however, slow movement could see heavy falls for a lucky few.
Note: Have amalgamated HillyBilly's and Harley's thread together into one.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
23C in FC yesterday, and looks like today will go a couple of degree higher. Quite unstable today, with the odd shower and storm about. Low level moisture isn't great and mid level southerlies tend to push activity towards the ranges.
Looking much better from Wednesday with widespread showers and storms, probably tending towards rain. Latest batch of progs have good to locally heavy falls. The pattern doesn't really break down in the models with winds quickly returning to humid and unstable NE'ly flow.
Yes liking the latest Water & Land for Wednesday and Thursday. After looking promising when the thread began, it was pulling right back a couple of days ago, but now has decent falls for most of the state.
Can see very nice convection N and NW of the city, Cu against clear skies looking magical. Must be building along a southerly convergence. Nice looking cell near Gisbourne on the radar now.