VIC: Summery & unstable (Part 1) - November 9-19 2017

[Skywalker]

Just got smashed at the Notting Hill pub.

Nothing like a few pots.

Lmao.

Nothing happening this side of the city now. Looks like my share of the action occurred earlier in the day at work.

[SC.]

Just got smashed at the Notting Hill pub.

Nothing like a few pots.

4 to be exact....I can't handle it the way I use to.

[Wilko]

Round 2 coming
1st one was all bluster 2mm
This one is making heaps more noise

[Sean]

What the flying f.. just decays on my doorstep. Yawn.

[hillybilly]

Just shy of 7mm here. Event nearly 20mm. The convergence is still set up over the eastern burbs between nw and e flow but sun is loosing its kick. Few towers showing up to our north so can't rule out more.

Lots of cracking thunder here.

EC keen on a repeat tomorrow so another day to come (so fingers crossed it will share it around). Sunday also showing showers and storms but rather more isolated.

The overall pattern isn't breaking down with northeast flow through for another week This thread could last nearly half a month

Some odd records starting to show up in terms of runs of warm days. Hobart for example could well double its old record for days in a row above 25C in November.

[93ben]

Just saw a photo of a funnel in Cardinia earlier today.

[Rivergirl]

Love the pics Blackie and Mick

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Just back from Kangaroo Ground which was bone dry,
Those storms this arvo before leaving have been missed,
Some more tomorrow would be a treat..

[hillybilly]

Another mm overnight, with heavier falls just west of here where a few spots copped 3-5mm. You can see them on the weather chasers website at http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... -melbourne .

Another warm and humid day, with all models showing showers and storms through the afternoon. Mainly focusing central and eastern areas. Expecting some decent storms around Melbourne, but again hit and miss with not a lot of focus. EC which has performed pretty well has 2-10mm across Melbourne. Hoping we get something as parts of Melbourne and cental Vic are really struggling this month despite all the chances.

More showers tomorrow, but more isolated so a chance but not too confident.

Pattern just showing no sign of breaking down. NE flow dominating for at least another week. EC has the odd shower or storm almost every day between now and late next week, most likely around the ranges, but sometimes on the plains. The uppers are warming the next few days which will see temperatures slowly rise.

BTW check out this epic shot of the storm passing just west of the CBD yesterday

[mick]

Fantastic pic, one for the BOM calendar.

[Gordon]

Great pic!

A mere 1mm for us yesterday but brings up 30mm for the event - modest total compared to some two or even three times that nearby, but still handy.

[stevco123]

Can see some impressive towers to my far north. Looks like the cloud tops are higher than yesterday.

I reckon it will go BANG very shortly. Yesterday I missed out on a good storm by less than 5km in all directions.

[Didjman]

Rain total for here so far - 37mm. Yesterday morning I unwittingly core punched the beast in the pic below at Wandong yesterday. Rain was so heavy, water resistance prevented speed higher than 80klm/hr and lane markings were invisible!

https://puu.sh/yoeaq/6047116078.jpg

Peter

[Onetahuti]

Sitting on 26mm for the event thus far, garden well watered and tanks full so not a problem if it is a miss for now.

[Dane]

Just 1mm yesterday and 9.5mm's for the event, will finish way below average for the month
if this keeps up. Had thunder at times yesterday with 2 or 3 near misses.
Doesnt look as active today IMHO most of the activity will be in the East and along the ranges.
Outer Northern and Eastern suburbs are a chance later this afternoon.
Unlikely down here in the outer SE suburbs where I am.
Any storms that occur will most likely be from the NE again.

[Jake Smethurst]

We don’t have a graphic today, just a brief.

VICTORIA THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - DAY 1
Saturday 18th November 2017

Another very unstable day across the majority of Victoria thanks to high humidity levels and a weakening area of low pressure. Thunderstorm activity is most likely over central and eastern districts (activity already occurring in some locations), with just a risk for development across the western districts. Heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding is the biggest severe risk today, however large hail is also possible and to a lesser extent, damaging winds. For the Melbourne area, storms are likely this afternoon and evening, particularly extending from the north and northeast.

[HarleyB]

46mm at Marysville to 3pm and the heavy rain is continuing as per the Melbourne radar. Wow!!!

[tonycynic]

If this stuff makes it over the ranges it looks like the east will get smashed this time. BOM have put out a STW now too.
Edit Rumbles at Mount Evelyn. Here it comes.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Thanks for the heads up... running to get all that washing off the line..
yeeehaaa.. radar looks

[Wilko]

Well that's a first for me
I can't remember storms developing from the due East