VIC: Summery & unstable (Part 1) - November 9-19 2017

[Dane]

a couple of light showers at the back of the Dandies.

[WeatherViewer]

Loving this weather no doubt!

But what what's happened to Melbourne/Vic weather?
Constant humid North Easterly winds, more akin to cities like Sydney or Brisbane right on the Eastern Seaboard.

[Dane]

I reckon this humid weather is becoming more common WV. In a couple more decades
this could be the normal in Melbourne. Climate change?

[hillybilly]

Jake I started a new thread - feel free to kill if you prefer this one to keep going.

Another warm humid one here today. Spent the arvo in the pool after a hard slog at the school doing ground works (so much for the good old days of a school gardener ) . Cu bubbled away over head, and a couple looked like they might break through the inversion, but not to be. One shower passed over the Yarra Valley so a close thing, while another small cell is currently bubbling away over Maroondah catchment dropping locally heavy rain over a small area.

No end in sight to this warm spell.

[Dane]

Some PWS in the Healesville area are showing 8 to 10mm's from that small cell DJ.

[stevco123]

3 pics from yesterday. These are looking directly north-west from across my house.

The panorama shows sort of from Laverton to Mount Dandenong.

The city centre is sort of smack bang in the middle of the picture but is not visible due to pic quality and rain.

[hillybilly]

I reckon this humid weather is becoming more common WV. In a couple more decades
this could be the normal in Melbourne. Climate change?

Yep. The highs are moving south as the upper troposphere becomes more stable (and baroclinic instability declines), while ocean temperatures are rising.This combination means more easterly weather and higher humidity for us.

About 10 years ago I led a study for engineers which looked at what was happening with extreme humidity, and as you'd expect it was rising with ocean temperatures (the high dewpoints had risen by about 1C, so about 7% more moisture). This type of study then feeds directly into dam spillway design etc so is taken seriously (i.e., you have to be very careful with your data and analysis methods). Just a single case but last December we set a record high dew point for Victoria. I like the humidity, but appreciate many don't.

Progs showing now break in the pattern with GFS and EC going for a major repeat of the thundery weather from around Tuesday or Wednesday.