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VIC - Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31 2017

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hillybilly
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VIC - Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Jump day today for temperatures with a fast moving front approaching. This goes through overnight then a second jump day on Sunday as another rapidly moving front approaches. Odd shower and storm with the first front, which might become more widespread in eastern areas on Saturday (which could be quite chilly in the south under persistent cloud). Second front is much stronger with 850Ts dropping from around 15C to below zero so drops from mid summer to mid winter temperatures. Showery conditions on Monday with the cold air (which cuts off into a low in the Tasman Sea).

Tropical infeed isn't looking that great, so doesn't look like a particularly widespread rain event at this stage, though areas in the south and northeast should do ok.

Nasty fire weather in SA today, and potential for parts of Vic on Sunday with hot very dry and gusty winds :?
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hillybilly
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by hillybilly »

23C here after a cool foggy morning. Band of showers overnight which will turn quite thundery and stall over eastern Vic for tomorrow. Could well be some decent falls out there.

Thinking maybe 2-5mm here overnight, but could get half or double that range.
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by hillybilly »

Woke up to heavy rain on the roof here with a quick 3.2mm in a few short and sharp bursts. Dribbles for most, pretty much as the models predicted. The local AWS also got 3.2mm (so a perfect match).

Warm windy night but now much cooler and foggy. Not expecting much more here today, but the east should continue to see some showers and possible storms. Some chance we might see a burst of showers in central areas during the arvo as mid level winds remain NWly and it will be quite unstable on the ranges just to our north (but thinking mostly east of the Dandenongs).

Back to warm/hot and windy tomorrow, then a sharp front and cold upper trough for Monday. The conditions become very unstable in the cold air on Monday so expect there could be some strong coldies. Also, potential for a decent snowfalll at places like Donna Buang, Baw Baw and Lake Mt.
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

We might scrape a few mm on Monday morning. Not very optimistic after the failures of the past two weeks. I now look at the forecast models and divide by 4.

And this Spring has also been devoid of thunderstorms. Again. That was not what I was expecting to be honest. (The 17th July storm was about it, and that was in mid-winter).
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by Skywalker »

Couple of mm's here.........via the sprinkler. :P
In other words, not a single drop of rain has fallen here overnight.

Attention now turns to Sunday night/Monday.
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by Horts »

Thunderstorms and heavy rain woke us in Safety Beach this morning around 4am, came out of no where!

Wasn’t much but I’ll take it!

Did anybody else cop it?
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by occluded »

Had a brief shower sometime around 4am, otherwise just a few dribbles. 0.6mm in the local gauge.

24mm for the month at Viewbank which is well off the average of 63mm. The water tank is still getting a bit of use.
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by Dane »

Didnt notice any thunder last night, just 0.2mm's of rain overnight.
Some convective showers not that far to the east of the metro area ATM
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by StratoBendigo »

Nothing here today, even though the skies looked threatening around midday.

Some decent storms in the Goulburn Valley tonight though. 11mm at Tatura.
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hillybilly
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by hillybilly »

Beaut morning out there, but expecting it to get pretty blustery as the day goes on. Squally change overnight otnight with a band of rain - the link with the tropics isn't great with this system, but the dynamics are good with the upper trough really sharpening up. Should see plenty of 30s across the state, and gotta be a chance for something around 35C in the northwest so getting summery.

Cold, wet and windy for tomorrow with lots of showers, possible storms, small hail and snow levels dropping quite low. Has to be a chance for snow on Macedon and not entirely out of the question that we could get some sleet here with thickness values dropping to about 532 to 534. We then go into a good period of SW'ly warm air advection which usually dumps a lot of drizzle here. Could well see 20-40mm which could push us above our October average (fingers crossed).

Some bumpers falls in the northeast into Gippsland overnight which is good to see. This area has been pretty dry of late, particularly on the south side of the divide.
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by Gordon »

Extraordinary to have 30s in the Mallee today, at the same time as a Sheep Grazier's Warning has been issued for up there tomorrow!
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by Skywalker »

Bright sunny morning here in Burnside Heights this morning although the wind has arrived unfortunately. :x
Garden should hold up well today as I've kept it nice and moist this week. It's looking good after a day of tidying up yesterday. Still wearing the battle scares of cutting out Aloe Vera & Agave pups.

Looking forward to some more rain during the next 24 hours.

Yep that's one for the books Gordon. Don't recall ever seeing that before. :o
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by typhoon29 »

blustery day, lawns mowed, trees chain sawed weeds poisoned. Sky starting to turn nasty wouldn't be surprised if a prefrontal something (I won't jinx it!) gets going before winter arrives over night
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by Hunter1890 »

Check out the satellite pic! Look at that sharp band of thicker cloud over the south west pop up. Super interesting! Horrible hay fever day today, on 2 telfast and still copping it. Bring on the rain!
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Gordon
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by Gordon »

typhoon29 wrote: Sun Oct 29, 2017 5:36 pm blustery day, lawns mowed, trees chain sawed weeds poisoned.
That's spooky - exactly what I did today! Great minds...

The first band looks close, assuming it holds together.
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by stevco123 »

I look to my east: clear sky

I look to my west: cloud bank incoming.

I havent seen a defined cold front like this in a looong time.
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by Sean »

Temp dropping, cloud moving in.. Goodbye sunny warmth :/
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Gardens looking a treat,
Snow ball tree keeping up with its name, sure looks,like it snowed.
Poor ole Ozz Flag is totally twisted around the pole..
Gentle rain on request, orange is in full flower..
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hillybilly
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by hillybilly »

blustery day, lawns mowed, trees chain sawed weeds poisoned.
Sounds like my weekend though I pulled the weeds. When we moved in had about an acre of blackberries, another acre of ivy and another acre of onion weed but knocked it all down over three years. Chopping wood means I'm going to feel it come Monday :D

Warm day here with a max of 22C, but winds made it feel cooler at times. Still, went in the pool (wonders of black poly pipe mean the waters 22C in the pool and 36C in the spa :D ).

Front racing up the bay should be here in about 30 minutes. Shame it's dark as suspect it will look quite speckie. Rain is trailing the front sitting on the jet which is near Mt Gambier ATM. Expecting 10-20mm overnight with about the same the tomorrow in showers. Need 30-40mm to our monthly average so hoping we sneak past it.
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Re: Warm to hot with two gusty changes: October 28-31

Post by mick »

get a goat next time
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