VICTORIA - Cut-off low: October 24-28 2017

[hillybilly]

Thread for the week ahead with a low developing over southwest WA headed for Victoria. Looks like the track will run east-west somewhere very close to Vic. It is unstable ahead of the trough and showery behind, though most rain looks like being to the south of the low, so areas further north may well mainly miss out. The dynamics aren't particularly strong and the precipitable values are moderate, though synoptics look OK good. Wednesday looks quite promising for sparks, with LI dropping to -2 to -4 across much of Vic.

Rainfall totals look moderate - mainly 5-10mm, but locally above 20mm. Models have been occasionally throwing up higher totals so has to be a chance.

[hillybilly]

Progs wiggling but similar. Rainfall ranges up to 50mm locally in CMC. CMC, GFS and ACCESS Synoptics are very similar are look good for most of Vic. EC is a bit further north on the latest run, but EC ensemble mean is further south which suggests the models are pretty consistent overall.

[stevco123]

Persistent drizzle (very heavy at times) yesterday and this morning.

4.6mm all up so far. That's 4.6 more than I expected Lol

[StratoBendigo]

Bright sunshine here this morning after a cloudy and rather cool weekend.

Progs have upgraded slightly overnight. Good chance of 10-15mm in the coming couple of days. We need it!

[Tassiedave]

At 1255 Launceston was 24.4 degrees, warmer than Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.

[Tassiedave]

Classic example of convective showers over central Tassie today. At around midday heavy showers spontaneously appeared over the central highlands and developed a narrow rainband stretching to the East. The 512 Hobart Composite radar shows this nicely. Some areas such as Woods Lake have now accumulated totals over 20 mm.

[hillybilly]

Started the day with hill fog and ended it with hill fog Inbetween was sunny. Scored 15mm of drizzle over the weekend, which was a nice way to finish the event.

Progs basically holding, and if anything probably looking a bit better overall. Most of Vic looks like it's going to sit under a band of showers and rain streaming out ahead of the low from later Tuesday through Wednesday. On Wednesday things become quite unstable, particular in the north and east.

Pretty consistent 15-40mm across the models so could well be one of the better state events in a while. Would be nice to end the month with a decent fall

[hillybilly]

Warm and sticky here in the Dandenongs with Cu bubbling. Expect the radar to light up from mid arvo for west and central areas. Couldn't rule out the odd rumble.

Progs holding for decent falls across most the state.

[Hunter1890]

Yup HB, bit of a rumble n tumble in the NW metro at the moment. Moving in a SE direction. Looks very high based from here. Radar shows moderate falls. Keen for some decent soaking rain I must say!

~Hunter

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Decent downpour 3.45 Kilsyth pooling on roads.

[Skywalker]

Yup HB, bit of a rumble n tumble in the NW metro at the moment.

There is?

I'm in the north western suburbs & haven't heard a thing here yet.

[Hunter1890]

Was a cheeky little bugger in Mid arvo SW, formed around the Melbourne Airport. Was very small so must've just missed

Interesting that EC has a heavy period of rain in a direct westward motion from about Bacchus Marsh towards Yarra Glen tomorrow morning. Should be bloody interesting tomorrow north of the divide with high lift and CAPE values forecast. I wonder if anyone will post BoM's thunderstormcast later...

[Wilko]

Thickening up very nicely to our West
Could be a very wet night indeed

[nafets]

Must admit the radar looks impressive, but rainfall observations are less encouraging. Most of the rainfall totals between 5pm and 6pm are around 0.5mm. Perhaps it has intensified and will be falling heavier though central areas but since the radar coverage in Western Vic is ...., it is hard to judge such a change.

[Onetahuti]

Only the odd spit of rain here this afternoon, had washing on line so thankful for not any more.
Now that the lawns are mowed 'Let it rain', if the radar is true indication it just may well do that.

[hillybilly]

0.6mm here so far. Steady light to sometimes moderate rain. It does look to be thickening up to our west so should pick up soon. Odd spark out west.

Progs not much changed. The peak rainfall is wiggly north and south, but looks to be generally in a band in central areas just north of Melbourne through the northeast ranges.

[tonycynic]

Anyone know what is causing those rings on the radar? Noticed it on the Adelaide radar earlier today too.

[Hunter1890]

Anyone know what is causing those rings on the radar? Noticed it on the Adelaide radar earlier today too.

I believe this is the answer as per a BoM Radar Engineer (found this on another forum)

"The donuts are due to the receiver's noise exceeding the noise threshold. Spirals are usually due to receiving another radar's transmitted pulse (many times over), This is a very common issue, especially in Melbourne where there are many radars in relative close proximity."

So in summary, it isn't due to the rain but rather the radar (or radars in close proximity!)

EDIT//

I really don't know what to think of the rain radar intensities.. there is yellow and orange over my area yet the rain is what I would call "light". The BoM have said they're going to be refining the radar so I wonder if that's it? 5 mm so far here and hopefully a good soaking to come still

[Wilko]

Steady rain for the last hour and has just got a lot heavier looks promising

[Wilko]

Anticipating 20 mils minimum overnight fingers crossed