Decent trough showing up for Sunday into Monday with a good chance for showers and storms. Cloud may somewhat cap instability on Sunday, but if we get breaks it will go off. System clears out on Monday with a good band of showers or rain. Rain looks quite general, but best for areas east of about Melbourne, and heaviest in southern and mountain areas.
The system is warm and has a good feed of tropical moisture so quite humid ahead of it, unlike the moisture starved systems we've had the last couple of months.
I have noticed the shift towards the monsoonal patterns have started and this is evident within the interior. Eastern Australia is about to go through another deluge, after earlier this week. It's good to see that Victorians will see an influence of this tropical moisture, as the high pressure shifts south.
I can't remember too many times, that I've seen low pressure build over Central and expand to the East and South in October, like it's projecting next week. Correct me, if I'm wrong, but does all this point to some sort of La Niña? Some of Melbourne's best storms over the years have been connected to inland troughs, so it's exciting to see that we are now going to back to a monsoonal influence and sadly, saying goodbye again to the polar influences. I enjoy winter for its low uv and insect absence, but that's that. I hope this season and summer/autumn has plenty to offer and a few surprises without too much heat.
I am still waiting on a system, like February 2005 or March 2010. It's been a while since we've had one of those type of systems that really stands out. I'm talking the 100mm in 24 hours or back to back squalls/supercells/multi-clusters for hours-type events.
By the way, I'm missing Jasmine's posts and I hope she does one day make a return to this forum.
[quote=Harley34 ...... Correct me, if I'm wrong, but does all this point to some sort of La Niña? Some of Melbourne's best storms over the years have been connected to inland troughs, so it's exciting to see that we are now going to back to a monsoonal ......
[/quote]
Interesting point! The eastern pacific has been consistently colder than the west over the last month or so. I have been watching this link with interest:
I thought I would mention quickly about the possibility of a big system on the 14-15th of October, so the middle. I was just judging a bit beyond the current charts on weatherzone and I thought to myself, that moisture from the north might connect with a front from the south. This could possibly be the next thread.
Back to the current situation and the trough is producing inland cloud. Dry here in Melbourne, but expecting possible storms later tomorrow. The bureau says a chance in the NW suburbs, but I'm from E Melbourne, so I hope it can show something here too...
[/quote] Interesting point! The eastern pacific has been consistently colder than the west over the last month or so. I have been watching this link with interest [/quote]
Yes and I think within the next forenight, we might see something sweet...
What? I didn't see this until I went searching. I found Jasmine to be very informative. I just stayed off the forum most of the time because Melbourne hasn't really had any severe weather for a long period of time.
Yes, definitely anticipating a relatively unstable day across a fair chunk of Victoria tomorrow associated with the trough system. Quite a moist airmass with a strong upper shear environment, so risk is also there for some bigger storms to develop, especially over parts of the northern country, north central and northeast districts where they are more likely to be severe if they develop. Generally a good chance for a storm across the majority of the state (beginning in the west morning hours), but particularly central and eastern parts during afternoon/evening near the trough. Best of luck to all, unfortunately I’ll be stuck at work in the city until 10pm so I’ll probably miss it if anything develops or moves over Melbourne, hopefully it doesn’t affect the train network!
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
Still on track for an unstable and showery 36 hours. Bit too much mid and high level muck today looks like it might limit things a bit, but still a pretty general event. Not expecting big falls, with progs winding back, but some might get lucky. Across the border could well be the best rain event in a couple of months (with it having been nearly rain free for much of NSW since mid winter).
Wednesday looks like a quick follow up and that one has the upper trough sharpening up so packs a solid thundery rain band. Local falls of 20-50mm showing up.
Once again more strong useless annoying bloody wind here in the western desert this morning.
About the only thing good about it today will be the fact I have to mow the grass & it can blow everything down the street. No sweeping required.
Really hope we get something rain wise later today. Desperately need it.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
G'day guys, newbie here. Jumped on over from Weatherzone to here which seems to be a little more active. I have a background in climate and water so hopefully can provide some decent info as well as learn a few things from you lot
Some good convection over Geelong at the moment along the trough line, as well as over in East Gippsland where the EC model rightly predicted the highest CAPE values. If any storms are going to affect Melbourne it will be in the next two hours but unfortunately I highly doubt this, due to relatively low dew points as well as some scud cloud to the north west affecting convection. Might get a dribble or two. Attention should turn to Wednesday which is shaping up to be a belter.
Just had a temporary but heavy downpour in Safety Beach, not exactly what I was hoping for with this set up but oh well.. I'll take this warmth! Sun back out now!