VIC: Series of troughs and possible low: September 11-15 2017

[hillybilly]

A changeable spring week ahead with a series of troughs and fronts with a possible low towards the end of the sequence. Starts out fairly mild on Monday with a trough clipping Vic, then a more significant trough on Tuesday. This one looks like having a plenty of showers and possible storms with decent instability. GFS has been pushing the LI over Vic into the negatives so should be convective, depending on temps and clear air.

Showery conditions then continue, with colder air pushing through. Could well see a cutoff form near Vic towards Friday on a stronger front, but details still a bit unclear.

Rain totals could add up well. GFS and EC have both been showing falls in then 20-50mm range. More snow in the alps, though suspect a bit of loss from the earlier warmer rain, followed by snow.

[hillybilly]

Had a short lived shower in FC this morning on the first of many troughs the week ahead. Few more to come ahead of a mild afternoon.

Similar tomorrow, though more showers and also a bit unstable. The temperatures tomorrow could well be quite remarkable with southern NSW and far NW Vic looking at low to mid 30s, while coastal Vic will be stuck in the mid teens. Case of some parts experiencing summer other parts experiencing winter

Showers and strong winds for the rest of the week with a front most day. Should add up to some heathy rainfall totals in the usual spots

[Jake Smethurst]

A few showers on and off here this morning and afternoon. They are very much spring-like droplets, largish in size; nevertheless light in general.

[Onetahuti]

Could nearly have walked around the few spots of rain that fell here without getting wet at all. A different day tomorrow going by the forecast.

[hillybilly]

0.8mm here today from those frequent but sparse showers. Pretty much as predicted by the models. Quite mild. 13C ATM and rising, with 29C in Mildura. Tomorrow's temps look pretty similar, and a bit warmer in the north. Quite nasty fire weather across the border which continues to miss out on this frontal rain

Bit more activity tomorrow but doesn't look overly wet. Is slipping a bit south for tomorrow so more of a coastal event. Bit of instability so possible rumble with an ounce of luck.

Rest of the week looks very active, and very cold air Wednesday night and again on Friday night with 850Ts dropping below -4C. Could well see snowfalls on Macedon again, and touch and go for the tops of the Dandenongs and places like Trentham.

[mick]

Jet black squall up near nojee showing on doppler atm,

[hillybilly]

1.6mm here overnight. A decent area of rain in the southwest of Vic likely to run along southern parts for much of today. Picking totals a bit difficult as the rain/no rain divide could well sit through the middle of Melbourne. Thinking maybe 5mm here, but could be half or double that

Pretty impressive variation in temperatures today with summer in the north and winter in the south. Here's the 1pm temperatures in the GFS model.



Rest of the week looks wet, and still a pretty good chance for low level snow Wednesday night into Thursday and Saturday morning.

[hillybilly]

Pouring up here currently. Had 6mm since 8am and coming down in sheets. The new (old) radar is really under doing the totals ATM.

[nafets]

Convective cell south of Healesville - is anyone in its path? The radar is showing orange for the first time, which must be carnage

[hillybilly]

Could see that cell to my north, but missed here. Got a few big drops but that was it.

Strangely humid arvo... looked like it should be cold but wasn't.

Btw first 30C for spring in Mildura with a 31C. That's about two weeks earlier than the longer term average. Back to winter from later tomorrow with snow Wednesday night to about 500m. Freezing level drops to near 800m, so pretty good chance for flurries in the usual spots.

[hillybilly]

9mm for the event so far so slowly building.

Today looks showery and getting colder. The front (if you could call it that) is sat west of Colac ATM and should be with us in central areas around noon. Upper overnight are nice and cold, with 850Ts dipping to about -4C. This is marginal for snow in the Dandenongs, but should be cold enough for snow about Macedon and Trentham etc.

More showers through til late Saturday.

Sorcher to our north. If Sydney hits 33C today it will be an early season record for them. Current forecast is 32C which will be second behind 2009. Glad it's north of us with the nasty winds and low dewpoints.

[StratoBendigo]

We've already exceeded our forecast max of 14c today. A gusty Westerly at present. Perhaps some convective showers later today?

We've had about 0.4mm so far with this system. It's drying off rather rapidly North of the Divide....

[hillybilly]

9.8C for a max in FC today. Had fairly frequent but mostly light showers. 3mm so far.

Cold night tonight with freezing levels dropping to about 800m. Good chance for flurries in the Dandenongs. The set up looks quite good, but the temperatures are a little marginal. Another degree cooler and it would be a definite.

Lots more shower Friday and Saturday.

[Gordon]

Just back from a week in the Snowy Mountains - lots of snow lying to quite low levels after last week's event to 1100 metres. Knee deep at 1400m

Arrived home just now to snowflakes in the sleet and temp dropping below 2C - can't get away from the stuff .

[Blackie]

Just back from a week in the Snowy Mountains - lots of snow lying to quite low levels after last week's event to 1100 metres. Knee deep at 1400m

Arrived home just now to snowflakes in the sleet and temp dropping below 2C - can't get away from the stuff .

Yeah the depth of snow at lower levels has been a feature of late winter.

Watched a spectacular gust front arrive over the lake at about 4:30 today. Large hail shafts in the distance arrived intact and delivered a nice white cover. Very cold up here in the high country now 5c.

Some nice coldies around!

[hillybilly]

Frustrating lack of showers overnight so another good snowfall opportunity missed We got one decent shower at 6am which dropped a quick smear of snow across surface. 3.8mm in the gauge for the last 24 hours. Temperature dipped to 1.4C so nice and chilly.

Warm air advection kicks in soon so showers should increase but so will the temps. Nice strong front showing up for tomorrow which looks like being the wettest for the sequence. Snow behind it to about 700m give or take.

Looks like spring warmth starts next week.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

NSW did pretty well for low level snow though, 34c in Sydney one day, snow flurries in the Blue Mountains the next. Jindabyne have had a good number of snow days in the past few weeks.

[hillybilly]

Couple of videos on local Facebook pages of the snow up here this morning. Proper flakes, but just didn't last for long.

Turned into a fairly mild day here in the end with a max of 8.3C and still rising. 1mm of rain, so a bit disappointing.

Front tomorrow looks like a ripper. Should be worth 20mm with strong winds, local hail, thunder and snow down to lower levels. Thinking it won't quite be cold enough for the Dandenongs but could get close. Will add to the excellent snow pack.

Some decent snow last night in NSW. The change was mostly dry but a few showers fired around Oberon to Orange then in the upper Hunter with decent cover of snow. Pretty amazing those spots had fires the day before

[hillybilly]

A few spits overnight and pretty mild with temps hovering around 7C. Today cool, wet and windy. Probably the best showers coming through overnight, but they will build through the day. MTD for us in 50mm (we actually running a bit below where we should be), but it's rained on every day except 1 Really shows the pattern we've had the last couple of months with lots of showers, but a lack of more significant falls. Hoping next 24 hours changes that a bit.

Next week looks much warmer. Melbourne has to be a chance for a couple of 25s. Not thinking much warmer than that for us, but further north NSW could well see high 30s

[Gordon]

Another 4mm overnight brings us also to exactly 50mm mtd vs our average of 78mm, so looking good.

On the back of an above average August, runoff is great.

I might regret saying this, but I'm really looking forward to a some fine, mild weather that lasts more than a day - relentlessly, cold, wet and windy here with 5 snow days in the last 5 weeks!