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VIC: Low Pressure System: 3rd-10th September 2017

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hillybilly
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by hillybilly »

Another cold wet windy day in FC. Closing in on 3mm.

Wife has had enough, thinking she'll make us move to Queensland if we don't get some sun soon :P

Jasmine, not sure why you are going? I always enjoy your posts. I find the weather humbles everyone, as you can never be certain and surprises do happen. That's half the fun of an amateur forum like this, where people read the tea leaves. Sure there's science, but there's always gaps in what we know.

The media do get excited, and imho overdid it for most but that's pretty much a given nowadays. There's no clicks to be had in a boring headline.
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Harley34
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by Harley34 »

JasmineStorm wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:01 am From a Victorian thread point of view, its a cracker. Well done Harley34 on creating the thread ;)
Thank you, but I really hope you don't leave this forum. You said you feel worn out from other user's comments. Let them be and continue your good work.

The event shaped up to be a nice and late winter event. Snow in the CBD was always going to be a huge reach. If only the low peaked a little closer to Tasmania and the high was a little to the left in WA. That would have probably created more of a southerly fetch, as opposed to the w/sw we generally ended up receiving. Still, reports of snow outside Melbourne and it is good to hear that, as it doesn't happen often. The front tomorrow looks good and then after tomorrow, I can't see anything worth mentioning for a little while. I will miss winter, as summer is too warm and the UV can be too harsh...

In International news, Hurricane Irma is on track to hit the islands and Florida at Category 5. Good for weather watchers, but the same won't be said about the aftermath. Hopefully, it doesn't go through and hit Texas or Louisiana...
Last edited by Harley34 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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stevco123
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by stevco123 »

My negativity comes from my own observations of the models (nothing targeted towards Jasmine or anyone else). This one certainly looked good on paper, but it just didn't play the game correctly in Central areas for some reason. I too was expecting some classic soft hail/graupel showers at the very least and only 20 seconds of it.

You win some, you lose some :|
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Skywalker
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by Skywalker »

hillybilly wrote: Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:51 pm Another cold wet windy day in FC. Closing in on 3mm.

Wife has had enough, thinking she'll make us move to Queensland if we don't get some sun soon :P
So has my wife. I call her the "ice woman" for a good reason. :P
I'm pretty sure My 4 month old Kelpie is currently wishing that she was back there in QLD too.
Jasmine, not sure why you are going? I always enjoy your posts. I find the weather humbles everyone, as you can never be certain and surprises do happen. That's half the fun of an amateur forum like this, where people read the tea leaves. Sure there's science, but there's always gaps in what we know.
I really hope that you don't go anywhere Jasmine. Like HB & many others I really enjoy your very informative posts. Any negativity in my posts is purely out of frustration at the lack of real weather activity I get to experience due to my geographical location. Anyone who has lived in the western suburbs of Melbourne would know just how uneventful & boring this area can be when it comes to weather, especially during winter.
The media do get excited, and imho overdid it for most but that's pretty much a given nowadays. There's no clicks to be had in a boring headline.
The media are nothing but a bunch of uneducated bananas with politically based self interests, especially when it comes to the Herald Scum. I stopped taking any notice of their ridiculous weather reporting long ago.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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StratoBendigo
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by StratoBendigo »

Just 6mm for us since Saturday. Rather disappointing rain totals for us this week.

The Alps look nice though on the snowcams...
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nafets
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by nafets »

Also very appreciative of the time and effort Jasmine puts into posts - please don't leave! 6mm from last nights showers and showers on/off today with nice sunny breaks.
Go the bombersss!
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Gordon
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by Gordon »

Add my voice to the calls for you to stay JS - you're one of the very top contributors to this Forum; love reading your analysis.

This system has been exceptional - well worth getting excited about :). As with every single cold outbreak I can remember, there are some places that do better than others. It just never happens that every part of Victoria is equally blessed. If you live in the Otways, Strezleckis or north-east Vic, this has been an outstanding system. For Macedonian and me it's been pretty good for September and certainly noteworthy if not exceptional.

Spencers Creek, just over the border, has 233cm of snow today - the most in 17 years. Bluff Spur on Mt Stirling is closing in on 2m which would be a once in 20 year depth for that location. Overall, it's been a big week statewide and well picked/ contributed. Unfortunately, our urbanised society means the tiny fraction of Victoria covered by greater Melbourne makes 90% of the noise - good and bad! Just simple demographics, but no reflection at all on your ability to provide great insight into the weather for Victoria as a whole (and beyond).
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by Dane »

6.8mm' s up to 9am today and 1.2mm's since then.
MTD now 17.2mm's
Jasmine hope we hear from you from time to time, love your posts.
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hillybilly
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by hillybilly »

Here's the snowy hydro snow chart for Spencers Creek. Must be at least another 20cm in the offering the next few days, so reaching 250cm isn't totally out of the question.

Image

Meanwhile, back homes getting heavy showers now. They are quite convective which is a bit off ths SW'ly warm air advection.

GFS keeps the showers coming until the last isobar on the incoming high on Saturday. Touch and go for some snow flurries in the Dandenongs on Friday with the 850Ts dipping to about -4.5C and freezing level near 900m.
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by Blackie »

Some nice beefy but sporadic showers in Elwood today.

Jasmine please don't leave here. Your posts are arguably the most informative and entertaining in the forum. There's always going to be negativity here and on any board. Whilst it annoys the hell out if me at times, I just try and bypass it.

Please stay!
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HarleyB
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by HarleyB »

It's not only your informative posts that I enjoy Jasmine, it's your raw enthusiasm for upcoming systems and observations that I have found myself coming online here more often again lately. I hope that you reconsider as it's been a privilege to have you here share your knowledge and passion with us to date :) I hope that you do reconsider!
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by Macedonian »

Hey Jasmine, sorry if it was my post that offended you. My apologies if it was.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
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Jake Smethurst
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Evening all! I think it's best we move back on topic and leave Jasmine to collect her thoughts. As has been reflected kindly by many, we hope you don't leave Jasmine, you will be missed!

This is also a good reminder that when we post (this is directed to everyone), we have to be mindful with what we say, how we say it and how it could be perceived by others.

Now, back to the weather! Bit disappointed about the amount of shower activity here, however, much of the state has had an exceptional event with low-level snow.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
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Gordon
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by Gordon »

Just passed 20mm for the dates - handy! Local lakes are full or nearly so, streams flowing hard.

As an aside, surprised and a little disappointed in the mainstream media not making more of a fuss about the incredible snow depths now being reached in the high country - depending on location, most snow in 15 years give or take. If it was the least snow in 15 years, the headlines would be screaming. I believe in climate change, but such a shame that climatically positive events like the current one have to be hidden away because they don't fit the agenda!
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by StratoBendigo »

Gordon wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:27 am Just passed 20mm for the dates - handy! Local lakes are full or nearly so, streams flowing hard.

As an aside, surprised and a little disappointed in the mainstream media not making more of a fuss about the incredible snow depths now being reached in the high country - depending on location, most snow in 15 years give or take. If it was the least snow in 15 years, the headlines would be screaming. I believe in climate change, but such a shame that climatically positive events like the current one have to be hidden away because they don't fit the agenda!
It's probably due to the fact that it's now Spring, not Winter. The Ski Resorts PR machine usually goes in to overdrive at the first whiff of snow in June-July to drum up business.

It's interesting to compare Spencer's Creek snow depths this year in comparison to 1992 and 1984. Those year's also had very similar SOI patterns (i.e. a shift from weak ElNino to weak LaNina values mid-winter).

As for our weather - some light rain overnight and low-level fog this morning. Chilly.

I also enjoy JS's posts. Please stay!
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Wilko
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by Wilko »

Slightly off topic I heard somewhere that the cold temps are in part due to more ice build up in the Antarctic
I think it was a grab from the Bureau
The SAM is in play as well but it was interesting that this point was made :?
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by Gordon »

Makes sense Wilko. Weatherzone claiming this has been the coldest week this late in the year for Adelaide in 48 years; and coldest in a couple of decades for much of the rest of SE Australia.
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mick
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by mick »

Ive never seen so much snow on the snow cams since they were invented.
Going to be biblical floods down the track when it all melts at once
check ouot how some of the new housing developments on floodplanes go.
Throw in a bit of rain from the north, we will see I guess.
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hillybilly
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by hillybilly »

Getting some thumping showers up here now. Got a spring feel to them today with big drops, and showers hitting hard and fast :D

Had nearly 4mm so far, with a couple more lining us up from the west. The front proper is sat on the west coast and will kick through overnight.

Uppers are fairly mild ATM, but will cool markedly with the freezing level dropping to around 850m overnight. EC has snow flurries for here, with GFS similar so might yet squeeze out some more snow. I'm thinking touch and go, and hoping for a surprise :D Thinking tomorrow will be a great day in the alps for the skiers ;)

Drizzling/showery then until Sunday.
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BringOnTheCoolChange
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Re: Low Pressure System: 3rd September -

Post by BringOnTheCoolChange »

Rope tow buried in Mt Mawson, Tassie. :D

Maybe they should extend the snow season to the end of October. :o

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