VIC: Low Pressure System: 3rd-10th September 2017

[Harley34]

Just had a look at the 6 day synoptic chart from Weatherzone. There seems to be an inland trough to connect up with a southern ocean low and front on the 3rd. I had a look at the day before the change and it seems that the conditions will be windy and a little moist. As for the actual event, I'm not sure about the specifics, in terms of the amount of rainfall, the wind speeds and/or thunderstorm development. I'm guessing 30 mm for Central areas with a few surprises shouldn't be out of the question, but I am sure the forecast will chop and change over the next several days. Thoughts on the topic?

[stevco123]

Some models predicting this as a mainly Tas event, with sea level snow. Still a while to go yet...

[JasmineStorm]

I've been waiting for EC and GFS to align on dates and today... BINGO! 12z EC and GFS 18z are getting very close. Overall moisture is questionable as the atmospheric river is trickling from the north on Sunday BUT - the gates of polar hell open up Monday to Wednesday It looks a touch extreme to me at the moment, so I'm waiting for the downgrades but if polar vortex pulses like GFS and EC believe.... this has the potential of snowmageddon if moisture exists and look out for 120 km/h winds on Sunday morning.

[JasmineStorm]

GFS 00Z 150 hours out, now has the 528 line on the Murray river. It's upgrading on cold air and moisture.... EC 00Z run will be interesting.

[JasmineStorm]

Sunday's system setting up nicely SW of WA on the latest sat pic.

All models pretty much on board with the polar barrage. Access currently has snow in central areas around 300m on Tuesday morning. GFS currently going for an old school classic with the initial front on Monday digging into the ridge allowing a ripping Antarctic follow up trough that will attack directly from the south. Certainly entertaining looking at the models at the moment

[Tassiedave]

Getting excited down in Tassie. The 'purple line" on GFS sweeps over us next Tuesday!!

[Macedonian]

Oooohh! "Attacking directly from the south"
Music to my ears!

[JasmineStorm]

Still too early to call on the exact impact early next week as EC is not in total alignment with Access or GFS from Tuesday. GFS won the battle on the last polar pulse. As it stands on GFS run 300817 00z , it will be snowing on ships in Bass strait and Melbourne's lowest ever September max 8.3 from 1969 is in danger on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Think we may have to wait another 24 hours to really know but I have a feeling EC might upgrade to GFS.

[Macedonian]

I couldnt imagine melbourne having a max that low ever again

[stevco123]

(Just so i can be proven wrong)

It'll be a typical 12 degree day with a few snow flurries on Mount Dandenong and snow in Hobart.

No way will it snow in Melbourne or sea level. We've had these predictions before and models always downgrade a day out and it snows in some place in NSW that hasn't had snow in 100 years.

(Once again just so i can be proven wrong as the models have me a tad excited but August 10 2005 is now becoming a distant memory)

[Sean]

It's interesting..

But we've been through this a million times. Vic, Melbourne especially, errs on the side of warmth every time.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

(Just so i can be proven wrong)

It'll be a typical 12 degree day with a few snow flurries on Mount Dandenong and snow in Hobart.

No way will it snow in Melbourne or sea level. We've had these predictions before and models always downgrade a day out and it snows in some place in NSW that hasn't had snow in 100 years.

(Once again just so i can be proven wrong as the models have me a tad excited but August 10 2005 is now becoming a distant memory)

That's the most likely scenario, it's hard enough for it to snow here at 400m, in today's day and age i would nearly call it impossible for snow in Melbourne.

[JasmineStorm]

EC now upgrading towards GFS as expected. Incredible atmospheric temps for a September system if the models are correct.

[JasmineStorm]

I stand to be corrected but I cant ever recall sea level snow in Victoria in September. Maybe it wont happen but EC, GFS and Access are in agreement for Tuesday morning ATM.

[Skywalker]

(Just so i can be proven wrong)

It'll be a typical 12 degree day with a few snow flurries on Mount Dandenong and snow in Hobart.

No way will it snow in Melbourne or sea level. We've had these predictions before and models always downgrade a day out and it snows in some place in NSW that hasn't had snow in 100 years.

(Once again just so i can be proven wrong as the models have me a tad excited but August 10 2005 is now becoming a distant memory)

I totally agree.

There's simply no chance it will even come close to snowing in Melbourne. It's just more model hysteria nonsense. 12 degrees with a few snow flurries in the Macedon Ranges & Dandenongs at the most.

Of course in the extremely unlikely event it looks like snowing at sea level, then I'll be off to the cowes property for a few days. There would be more chance of it snowing down there compared to Melbourne.

[JasmineStorm]

Current southern hemisphere temps are interesting, its going to be a volatile Spring

[stevco123]

BoM 4 day chart showing it a bit perhaps too westerly-streamed???

Would like the low a bit more northerly for any real chance of something to talk about on this forum next week.

[JasmineStorm]

BoM 4 day chart showing it a bit perhaps too westerly-streamed???

Would like the low a bit more northerly for any real chance of something to talk about on this forum next week.

GFS takes a more snap hook South westerly from a 979 hPa core cold cyclone sitting over Hobart on its latest run. That's going to be a tad chilly if it happens

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=96

[Onetahuti]

Interesting forecast for Tuesday, " Snow possible about the Dandenong Ranges."

Time will tell!

[JasmineStorm]

This system is becoming extreme. EC now has a 961 hPa cyclone just south of Tassie on Tuesday morning, its a major upgrade on placement and intensity of the polar low. I'm assuming a downgrade in the next 24 hours..