Vic: Weak low then swly stream: August 21-28 2017

[stevco123]

Very, very wet down here and very green (despite the average rain). Reminds me of the winters we used to have with water laying everywhere and the grass being soft to the point where it is muddy.

No hint of any dryness at all.

[Macedonian]

Almost -3C and a heavy frost at work this morning. -0.2C at home.

[JasmineStorm]

-2c here this morning. Interesting cold air upgrade on GFS 18z. Freezing levels on Sunday down to 600m in the Macedon Ranges and 700m around the Dandenongs with moisture. Might just a once off run but one to keep an eye on for tonight's runs....


Off topic - Texas is about to see a possible unprecedented storm event in the next 7 days I would say. Possible cat 4 Hurricane that stalls after landfall around Houston. Hurricane Harvey might have the power of Katrina but with a lot more water.

[stevco123]

Interesting cold air upgrade on GFS 18z. Freezing levels on Sunday down to 600m in the Macedon Ranges and 700m around the Dandenongs with moisture. Might just a once off run but one to keep an eye on for tonight's runs....


Off topic but Texas is about to see a possible unprecedented storm event in the next 7 days I would say. Possible cat 4 Hurricane that stalls after landfall around Houston. Hurricane Harvey might have the power of Katrina but with a lot more water.

Ther's talk of possible over 1000mm (that's one thousand millimetres) falls, during that event. insane.

[JasmineStorm]

Ther's talk of possible over 1000mm (that's one thousand millimetres) falls, during that event. insane.

I've been watching the models over the last 48 hours and this mornings run were off the scales. Both EC and GFS. Latest EC is a dooms day scenario, as the hurricane has 2 cracks at the coast.

[Macedonian]

-2c here this morning. Interesting cold air upgrade on GFS 18z. Freezing levels on Sunday down to 600m in the Macedon Ranges and 700m around the Dandenongs with moisture. Might just a once off run but one to keep an eye on for tonight's runs....


Off topic - Texas is about to see a possible unprecedented storm event in the next 7 days I would say. Possible cat 4 Hurricane that stalls after landfall around Houston. Hurricane Harvey might have the power of Katrina but with a lot more water.

I was wondering when someone would mention Sunday. Yr.no are forecasting a max of 3C for mt macedon

[hillybilly]

GFS and EC throwing up some seriously cold air now for Sunday. 850Ts dipping into the -5 to -6C range. Assuming there are showers, the Progs look like snow to 400 to 500m. Freezing level drops to about 800m.

Not a lot of showers but enough for flurries here assuming it happens

Edit> Harvey dropped 14hPa in two hours based on aircraft flights. Must be near Cat 3 now.That area can see nasty spin ups thanks to the coastline which is cyclonicly curved and extreme warm of the waters.

[hillybilly]

Models firmly on a cracking little cold outbreak for tomorrow. Mainly hits central and Gippsland with thickness values dropping below 528 which is snow to very low levels. 850Ts dip to around -5C. Those numbers suggest snow to around 400m from East Central and eastwards. Plenty of showers with the cold air so won't be a shortage of showers.

Would be very unlucky not to get settling snow here based on those numbers for Ferny Creek.

Waiting to see the EC meteogram, but currently thinking 10-25mm a good chance for southern areas from about the Dandenongs east. Won't be much in the north. Cracking frosts then on Monday morning

[stevco123]

BoM going for snow down to 700m around central areas.

Nothing spectacular, but could definitely surprise with a lower snowfall.

When is the coldest air due to arrive?

[JasmineStorm]

BoM going for snow down to 700m around central areas.

Nothing spectacular, but could definitely surprise with a lower snowfall.

When is the coldest air due to arrive?

Looks like the polar air arrives around sunrise in central areas.

[hillybilly]

BoM going for snow down to 700m around central areas.

It's an odd airmass. The low levels are very cold with 80Ts around -5C, maybe a tad colder. But the cold air isn't very deep so thickness values dip to around 532. The temperatures suggest snow to sub-500m but the thickness values suggests snow to about 700m. The best of the showers are ahead of the coldest air, but there is showers with the cold air so potential for snow showers to low levels.

I'm expecting it to be cold enough for snow showers here, but just need the showers to cooperate.

Guess we will find out in 12 hours.

Jasmine, what you thinking for snow levels?

[JasmineStorm]

Jasmine, what you thinking for snow levels?

agree it's a little odd this one. I tend to think with the freezing levels, anything over 500m south facing in central areas is a real chance. Its quite a big southerly fetch, which I think might keep producing showers into tomorrow night. Not much chance here on the northern side of the divide though.

[Macedonian]

I really like the southerly direction a lot.
Definitely the best sort for snow here aty place.
Should be a good cold day.

[stevco123]

Heavy rain here for a while. Looks like a nice rainband coming through.

[hillybilly]

A very welcome 15mm overnight which was about double most the models forecasts. Now sitting waiting for some coldies to move up. There are quite a few moving up around Tasmania's west coast ATM so should see some within an hour or three. One good one just gone through the city, apparently, with a rumble. MTD here is about 115mm so getting close to our average. Just need a good bay stream today (please).

Cold air is now moving in with the air staying cold enough for low level snow all day. Would put the freezing level around 900m currently, and it should dip out about 750m for a while. Just now need some showers.

[JasmineStorm]

Looking at the obs in the Macedon Ranges, it's now cold enough for snow above 500m. Currently 2c at 527 ASL and it's dropped to 4c at 200m in Sunbury. Come on in moisture....let's gets the snow party started

[Macedonian]

About half a cm on the ground and snowing on an off. 0C
Nice start to Sunday

[hillybilly]

Solid snow shower here a few minutes ago. Proper flakes for a couple of minutes, with temperature now down to 2.3C which is the usual cutoff for proper snow here. Bunch of showers inbound

Got a video but internets is sooooo slow. Guessing every kid in the hills in what YouTube videos this morning

EDIT> anyone know how to share Facebook videos here?

[JasmineStorm]

Solid snow shower here a few minutes ago. Proper flakes for a couple of minutes, with temperature now down to 2.3C which is the usual cutoff for proper snow here. Bunch of showers inbound

Got a video but internets is sooooo slow. Guessing every kid in the hills in what YouTube videos this morning

EDIT> anyone know how to share Facebook videos here?

Great stuff HB. I reckon later on snow may fall around 400m in the Dandenongs if that southerly fetch really kicks in. To share a video onto here from FB, right click on the video - then click on 'show video URL' - copy paste into the thread.

[Dane]

9.7mm's here up to 9am, brings the MTD to 79.7mm's which is above the August average of 78mm's.
First time we have exceeded the average here since April.