Vic: Inland low and frontal system: August 3rd-6th 2017

[Harley34]

Looks like a front from the south is to cut off in to a low inland over N VIC/E SA mid-week and after that, a falling front followed by a strong front at the end of the week. Charts on both the Bureau and Weatherzone confirm this, but I hope they won't change too much. Thoughts on the topic?

[JasmineStorm]

Inland low looks the goods but it maybe a north of the divide event mid week...... THEN - it punches the high pressure ridge in the guts and allows a Polar Vortex bullseye for Victoria next Sunday GFS picked this up days ago and now EC is warming to it again.

On a side note , the new GFS version which is now live from July 19th ATM is proving to be more than a match to EC globally (currently GFS is teaching EC a typhoon prediction lesson for the 2017 Asian typhoon season). So IMO, GFS can now be taken quite seriously. Here was the reason for the upgrade - Hurricane Sandy 2010. https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/ ... e/2161467/

[JasmineStorm]

Don't pack away the gloves and beanies just yet Conveyor belt is starting to crank from late this week

[StratoBendigo]

It looks like we might do quite well out of Thursday's upper low. I can see 15-30mm for us in the coming week if it all comes together.

I'm not entirely convinced about the cold front(s) on the weekend. As per 90% of systems this year, it'll probably ridge out or peak too far West...

[JasmineStorm]

EC just modelled an upgraded polar attack for Sunday night into Monday.

[Sean]

I'm sick of surviving off scraps like a dang ally cat. This system better deliver!

I keep waiting for an exciting model predication, and they come, but then pass unfulfilled.

It's feeling like spring more and more every week, especially when that sun is out.

Anything above 10mm is going to feel like a deluge one day.

[jimmyay]

Looks like Melbourne Airport will crack 180 hours of sunshine in July with an average of around 6 hours a day. It really has been a very sunny winter so far. Torn between hoping for rain and enjoying the brightness. And yes I can start to feel the sun getting brighter too...maybe it's wishful thinking

[hillybilly]

Models are slowly shifting the inland low further south, then hooking it up with a series of fronts in the westerlies. Not completely confident but it does look prett encouraging on the latest runs. We really need something big here; I'm not thinking this is it, but should st least see 30 to 50mm in the next week and a bit. Doesn't look so good for areas near the city, and the western plains with the fronts tending to mainly peak to our west.

System through NSW and the other in SW WA today both good rain producers which is very good to see. Fire season was starting to loom large for NSW, but this will put things back for a while.

Btw looked at numbers for Saturday. It was by some margin the nastiest July fire weather day in records (though these mainly go back about 20 years). Mildura saw a FFDI above 50 which would trigger a fire ban in summer Highest there by a long way. Similar records in most spots from about Ceduna to Sydney.

Looks like Melbourne Airport will crack 180 hours of sunshine in July with an average of around 6 hours a day. It really has been a very sunny winter so far. Torn between hoping for rain and enjoying the brightness. And yes I can start to feel the sun getting brighter too...maybe it's wishful thinking .

Reckon summer can wait. This year reminds me ATM of 1967, 1994, 2002 and 2006 at this point. Those years had horrid summers. We haven't got a strong driver this year in the Indian or Pacific Ocean which makes this year all the weirder. One positive is my power use is down about 30% thanks in part to all the sun (and a new efficient heat pump water system).

[StratoBendigo]

Good frost here this morning. Today might be a good day for washing after looking at this morning's charts.

The snowfields might do really well in the coming week.

[hillybilly]

Progs pretty much holding. The inland low is also edging a touch further south. Rainfall looks pretty good, and may be heavy about the ranges.

Could get quite cold in Vic from around Saturday, though currently not that remarkable. Keep hoping to see the -4C 850T line pass over us (which is basically the threshold for low level snow) but not really showing up yet. We've had snow in Ferny Creek every year since 2001 except 2009 - hope we don't match that crap snow year...

Does look good for snow in the alps from about Friday.

[Harley34]

Latest maps have the low giving us the bottom of the inland low/front, so we still get a decent amount of rain and then, the good follow up fronts and possibly something bigger later next week...

[JasmineStorm]

The low is certainly wobbling on the models... might have to wait until tomorrow to know what its doing. Fronts are still queueing up from the weekend. EC has centimetres of snow in parts of the Macedon Ranges over 10 days. Looks like a 3 foot dump for the Alps in the same period.

off topic side note - GFS just modelled the mother of all typhoons to be near Japan this Sunday. I had to look twice when I saw 870 hPa and then EC modelled it at 896 hPa. If GFS is right, it would equal the lowest barometric recording on earth. Ear throbbing stuff. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=94

[hillybilly]

Low starting to form at the head of the bight as expected. Across the models it looks pretty much unchanged. Start to touch northwest Vic later tomorrow with more general rain through Thursday. Not heavy falls, but should be moderate, particularly in the north. Strong front for Sunday, but a bit moisture starved so not a big rainfall producer at this stage.

[StratoBendigo]

It's looking pretty good for around 30mm falling here in the coming week. Some really nice cold upper temps are likely on Sunday with -33 degC 500HPa temps forecast on GFS. It's about time!

[Harley34]

Colder morning and day generally, then what was first expected, but the fog and low cloud lifted to a now sunny afternoon. The low NW near Adelaide will track east, but the trough and front looks to give N of the divide better falls along with Southern New South and even stretching along the coast. I think we will get around 10mm at least and then, the following fronts later this week and early next...

[hillybilly]

Nice frost morning up here above the sea of fog. Here's a photo I took earlier look down towards Arthurs Seat.



Steady rain back through SA slowly moving in. Looks like a rainy 36 hours starting tomorrow. Not big falls, but pretty general, particular in the north. Uppers look just cold enough for snow in the alps (850Ts are mainly in the 0 to 3C range).

Then a cold wet and windy weekend (just like August should be ).

Would like 50mm please

[JasmineStorm]

Great Pic HB.

Everything looks to be lining up nicely for up here for the next 5 days. 50mm+, big southerly fetch from a Deep South cyclonic cold core hooking around into a NW attack on Sunday, that will bring snow into the Macedon ranges. Looks like the weekend NW flow might mean parts of Melbourne cop the rainshadow effect.

[hillybilly]

EC and ACCESS both showing a good upgrade the next four days. Widespread 20 to 50mm falls.

Fingers crossed this one delivers plenty.

Uppers aren't that cold (looks like snow mainly above 1000m, though I do wonder if a cold night tonight could see some local low level snow tomorrow as the rain band overruns the cold air???

[snowfall]

Looking quite promising over the next few days, although as Jasmine mentioned we'll probably be susceptible to a rainshadow effect over the weekend here. Already cold here this evening - currently 1.7c

[Macedonian]

Oh i hope we get some snow on Sunday or whenever it is
I will be back at Mt Macedon by then. Im up in NSW near Lithgow this week. It was -5C frost here this morning but no-one batted an eye-lid. Apparently -5 is nothing much out of the ordinary around here.