Vic: Inland low and frontal system: August 3rd-6th 2017

[HarleyB]

21mm here, fantastic stuff! We ended up lucky stuck under the heavier stuff for a couple of hours.

[hillybilly]

Just on 10mm overnight. About in the middle of the model predictions for us in the end so a pretty good result. Still fog and drizzle this morning, but light so that's about it for the first part.

Still three solid front passages (at least to come). One for Saturday, another for Sunday and finally on Monday. Frustrating that none really tap proper cold air just not seeing anything low level in terms of snow.

Today is mostly an inbetween day.

Looks like 5-15cm of snow in the alps so a nice boost up there. Snow level seems to have been about 1200 to 1400m so goes to show while the lower levels we're remarkably cold, the uppers aren't.

[Wilko]

10.6 mm here
Best drop in 2 months by a long way
Looks wild Sunday

[Dane]

8.8mm's here up to 9am. Best 24 hour fall of the winter so far.
Hopefully a bit more to come over the next 2 or 3 days.

[StratoBendigo]

Yesterday's Max temp of 9.0c in Melb CBD survived the 9am reset (just). Coldest August max since 1970.

Possibly the coldest max overall since July 10, 1995 (8.5c)?

[nafets]

Looks like coldest since CBD day since the 9th of July 1998 with 8.9c. Unsure whether we should be comparing data of the Olympic Park site to the Regional Office (old site) - but thats for another discussion. Interestingly the 9.0c we recorded yesterday is actually the median lowest annual maximum at the Regional Office.

[hillybilly]

Looks like coldest since CBD day since the 9th of July 1998 with 8.9c. Unsure whether we should be comparing data of the Olympic Park site to the Regional Office (old site) - but thats for another discussion.

They are pretty similar on cloudy days. The old site was a bit warmer on sunny days and days with sea breezes.

Funny that while yesterday was quite mild in FC, today is bitter cold. Our max since 9am is a lofty 4.9C Strange temperature distribution again with a cold layer trapped near the surface, while the uppers are pretty unexciting.

[JasmineStorm]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 77,-52.356

Currently the Cold core cyclone is 973 hPa, gusting to the surface around 110 km/h on the north west flank, -15c @ 850 hPa on the south west flank. That north westerly is going to be as cold as a mother inlaw's kiss on Sunday PM.

[Blackie]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 77,-52.356

Currently the Cold core cyclone is 973 hPa, gusting to the surface around 110 km/h on the north west flank, -15c @ 850 hPa on the south west flank. That north westerly is going to be as cold as a mother inlaw's kiss on Sunday PM.

Crikey there will be plenty of cars to be dug out at the alpine resorts Monday morning if this kind precipitation drops

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/mountbuller.shtml

[JasmineStorm]

The old 3 foot storm Blackie. Might need a bulldozer up there if that BoM forecast comes off

BoM are starting to come onboard with this polar baby. Severe weather warnings in plenty of districts by tomorrow night I would think. Rainfall has upgraded as well for up here. EC still quite keen on low level snow, 1cm around Daylesford, Trentham and now appearing near Yarra Juction and Leongatha by Monday. GFS still not as keen at those levels.

[snowfall]

8.6mm here yesterday and overnight, so a good start. Would be great if we did get some snow about in the Macedon Ranges - will be keeping a close eye on possibilities over the weekend!

[hillybilly]

Classic winter day here with a max of 5.8C. Cold gusty winds, and scuds racing just above tree tops.

Decent rainbands moving into western districts and northcentral, it expect the ranges will largely shread them. Look more like a northern slopes and western districts event the next 12 hours.

Bit worried a little low might keep us in nwly flow on Sunday, keeping showers more confined again to the west and ranges.

[hillybilly]

Rainband shredded as expected. Cold windy night here with 2mm. Anywhere on the central ranges, and out west did a good deal better.

Today looks cold and windy but basically dry for most.

Good low for tomorrow should throw up a cold, wet, windy one. Not really liking the details for central and eastern areas with the low too close for us, while northeast and west will get heaps.

[Tassiedave]

Rainfall to 9 am Lake MacKenzie 32 mm, Mt Victoria 21 mm, Sheffield 19 mm, Scottsdale 16 mm, Nunamara 14 mm, Devonport 12 mm, Wynyard 12 mm, Low Head 11 mm, Deloraine 11 mm, Ross 3.4 mm, Friendly Beaches 1.6 mm, Hobart 0 mm. Hobart has received only 44 mm this winter to date!

[hillybilly]

Cold windy day up here but fine. Front looks like a ripper coming up on SA. Heavy rain, gusty winds and the odd spark. Shame it's going to come through overnight and will again get shredded by the ranges. Thinking perhaps 2 to 6mm here, with better falls out west and on the central and northeast ranges. Good snowfalls to add to the 20 to 40cm that has fallen already

Low for Monday looks like passing just south of Vic. The further south the better for rain given it will be running west to east.

[mick]

Check out the adelade radar, ive never seen that red color before.

[Harley34]

Wind has picked up, rain still out west...

[hillybilly]

Rainband completely spread by the ranges Just a trace in the gauge. The systems just keep peaking too far west for us so SA has been doing quite well since start of July but we continue to struggle with just dribbles. 12mm here so far for the date range.

Better falls around the ranges with heavy snow dumping in the alps. Going to be the blizzard of the season up there setting them up for a good run through to September Might make a dash up to Donna Buang this arvo if the obs show decent snow falling

Showers should become more general today as the low moves closer to us. Across the models looks like the low will probably track just south of Port Phillip Bay which should set us up for a wet Sunday evening and Monday. Models soundings are quite wierd. The 850Ts aren't that cold (around -2C) but the thickness values are lower around 530. Thickness values that low are cold enough for sleet here, but the 850Ts are too warm These usually match up better. As best as I can tell the low surface pressure is raising the 850Ts, while the steep lapse rate to about 500hPa is lowering the thickness value. Guess we have to be a chance for the odd wet flurry with that combination Thinking a good chance for snow around Macedon and probably dipping down to the higher towns like Trentham.

Longer term another system following quickly for second half of the week.

> we just got a shower. 0.4mm so off to a start for this part.

[JasmineStorm]

22mm so far for the thread and a nice wind chill in the air. Currently 4.5c here and showery. Mt William has now dropped below zero in the Grampians. The real cold air moving in tonight, so this trough will be interesting later on.

[hillybilly]

Jasmine, what are you thinking about snow up there? We're on 5C here so still a couple of degrees too warm, but could get wet sleet.