Victoria: Cool, wet and windy: July 23-31 2017

[WeatherViewer]

Already 19C over in Avalon today

[Didjman]

Has only got to 12 here so far, but the wind is icy! (Kilmore is the local Ballarat). Cloud starting to thicken out west and further back.
Peter

[JasmineStorm]

Yes, HB and Skywalker, models suggest a wild day Saturday wind wise ATM.

I'm still over here in NZ but looking at the latest infrared sat pic of Victoria, there seems to be some lift and development ahead of that trough with the cloud top temps near -50c. Might be sparks soon

[Didjman]

... looking at the latest infrared sat pic of Victoria, there seems to be some lift and development ahead of that trough with the cloud top temps near -50c. Might be sparks soon

There are some near Mt Gambier and over the Otways.
Peter

[Jake Smethurst]

Up to 17 here today. Definitely some thundery looking conditions earlier on, and as mentioned, cloud now thickening up with some minor convection occurring. Radar indicating some of the convection is deep enough for the odd storm to develop. Might get lucky here later on!

EDIT: Nice development over the bay.

[JasmineStorm]

Melbourians, time to activate the storm shield

[Horts]

Wow what a drive home!

Left work in Mt Waverley at 4pm to blue skies, approaching Frankston along eastlink could see dark skies in the distance, getting closer the odd flash or two would show its face - by the time I got to Mornington it was absolutely pouring down - constant lightning and LOUD.

This whole day has felt very un-winterlike, and this just tops it off.

Awesome little cell!

[Dane]

Reached 18.3c here today warmest day of the winter so far for me.
That cell is to the south of me now. Very black in that direction.
Lightning tracker showing plenty of strikes over French and Northern parts of Phillip island.
Unfortunately will not affect here - have not heard any thunder.

[Skywalker]

Melbourians, time to activate the storm shield

Yep, ho hum, yawn as I watch it all slide away towards the south east.

Lightning tracker showing plenty of strikes over French and Northern parts of Phillip island.

Of course it is, I'm currently not down there!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Some pretty amazing lightening spotted to the south..
looked like a double bolt.

[Sean]

Copped a decent storm, go figure.

Has spring sprung

[hillybilly]

Looks like that storm band is backbuilding which usually happens as they hit the eastern burbs. Not torrential, but should be worth a quick few mm's. Bit more overnight too. Hoping to add 10mm to the thread's total by morning. The whole system looked impressive from Docklands.

Surprised to see it pop up to 20C today at Avalon. Makes a low 20s seem pretty likely on Saturday in central areas. NW still headed for the high 20s. The 30C isotherm could get close to Vic, but probably stay north of the border.

Couple of short run record highs in SA today, with a number of stations getting close to 30C. Pretty impressive for such a subtle frontal passage. The 1975 July heatwave which saw so many of the current records set was very high amplitude with a long and strong fetch of NW flow.

[nafets]

Bugger all rain here but nice lightning to the south!!

[Dane]

That first cell missed me but not the 2nd. Heaps of pretty spectacular lightning heavy rain
and some Hail. Best winter storm for some time.
Not sure how much rain yet will check the gauge when the lightning dies down.
Don't think that much as the heavy rain only lasted a few minutes.

[Dane]

3.8mm's with that quick fire storm.

[JasmineStorm]

Nice little cell that one Dane. Here's my 2 cents worth from a far. Don't think it was an F1 tornado but looks like a little Meso in the gust front was showing some signs of rotation. Don't often see those in July

[hillybilly]

Cracking short live storm. Multiple nearby CG gusty winds and heavy rain. Shame it was all over in 5 minutes 3mm more in the gauge.

That radar image is a classic.

That storm was more like I expect in spring or early summer

Next front for tomorrow should introduce much cooler air and showers, then Thursday's front which comes through later so we probably miss the chance for good storms, but will inject more showers.

As for Saturday, looks wild. 850hPa winds are nasty. Then a decent rainband following the wind change late. Going to be damage with this one given the complete lack of wind thus far in winter

[Australis(Shell3155)]

whats going down Saturday, I picked a day fishing off the pier, ?

[Tassiedave]

Rainfall since 9 am: Mount Read 33 mm, Cradle Valley 26 mm, Legerwood 18 mm, Cape Bruny 18 mm, Deloraine 13 mm, Devonport 6.4 mm, Hobart 4.8 mm, Launceston 3.8 mm.

[hillybilly]

Wet start to the day in FC with nearly 3mm more. Event now on ~14mm or thereabout. Looks like a showery day ahead.

Mild start, but should cool as the front moves through.

Rest of the sequences looks pretty similar in the models. Saturday still on track to challenge the Vic July record. Looks like 28C to me for Mildura. We could also see the SA record challenged with 850Ts touching 18C in northern SA. Crazy crazy numbers for July

Here's the 850hPa winds for middle of the day Saturday (Australis). Those winds will mix down in gusts to the surface, so you are looking at gusts of 100-110km/hr being possible. The big event in October last year had winds to 60 to 70knots, so this one looks a bit less intense, but not a lot less.