Victoria: Cool, wet and windy: July 23-31 2017

[Australis(Shell3155)]

thanks..
well I must have read the BOM forecast for saturday wrong yesterday,
as i may not have booked a weekend by the beach with winds like that..

[Skywalker]

thanks..
well I must have read the BOM forecast for saturday wrong yesterday,
as i may not have booked a weekend by the beach with winds like that..

Looks like we are both going to cop it near the beach this weekend Shell. I'm suppose to be heading down to the island Friday night, and we have a massive gum tree about 25 metres away from our house.

Not a lot happening here this morning, just cloudy with most of the showers over the south east.

[hillybilly]

A quick ~4mm from the cold front just after noon. Now cooler but mostly fine. Couple of showers in bound so perhaps not quite finished. Some of the showers have decent tops so wouldn't rule out the odd rumble of ping of hail.

[StratoBendigo]

Temp has dropped a couple of degrees here in past hour. Nice to see that it's snowing at Mt Buller too.

As for this weekend's hairdryer - I can't see it getting above record July temps for most of the state. It might get close in the Mallee, but probably not here or in Melbourne.

Some decently cold air (albeit mostly dry) in the mix afterwards on Monday - Wednesday. Back to winter I reckon.

[Geoff]

Forecast seems to have backed off a little for Saturday's winds, up to 50kmh instead of 70kmh. Good news in my book!
Had a little sleety/hail in the cold front earlier up here.

[hillybilly]

As for this weekend's hairdryer - I can't see it getting above record July temps for most of the state. It might get close in the Mallee, but probably not here or in Melbourne.

The airmass is record warm, but only just makes it into Victoria so we won't see widespread records (unless the surprising happens). The main records to watch are the July state records for SA, Victoria and NSW. The SA one is a bit of an outside chance (I'm thinking the state will top out around 33C so a degree below the record), NSW is likely to get close (current record is 31.7C) and think the Vic record is more likely than not (current record is 27.1C). Records take all forms.

The wierd thing is the whole set up is pretty benign. We get quite a decent front for Thursday into Friday and then in just 24 hours of NW'ly flow make a run at records. You look for freakish weather set-ups for significant records, not run of the mill frontal sequences.

Showers looking sparse now, and feel like a cold morning ahead of a pretty nice day tomorrow (followed by another windy and showery change).

[StratoBendigo]

Walpeup holds the current July record of 28.8c on 30-7-1975. I think it'll be safe.

[hillybilly]

Will provide an update, but that Walpeup ob is not credible. The neighbouring stations on the day recorded 26C. They all show the temperatures dropping from the 29 to 30, but Walpeup goes the other way.

The offical record for Victoria in July is 27.1C set at Robinvale twice during that warm wave.

The data across all the stations were in close agreement on June 28, 29 and 30 then Walpeup threw up a spurious number on the last day.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/e ... n=7&day=25

[hillybilly]

Chilly one up here with slight frost. Missed the evening showers so 4.4mm for past 24 hours. MTD about 85mm.

Looks like a fairly nice day today though blustery winds will make it feel chillier than the actual temperature. Solid front tonight.

Hoping this one surprises tonight as we are fast running out of time to get out monthly average . Feels like the month has thrown up a lot of fronts but they've mostly given just dribbles

Saturday looks warmer in the northwest, but cooler in the south where cloud comes in a bit quicker. Winds still look wild

[Dane]

2.4mm's in the 24 hours to 9am here. MTD now 42.3mm's.
might still get to 50mm's before the month with any luck average is over 70mm's

[JasmineStorm]

Back in Victoria! 61mm for the month so far. See its currently building slowly on the border with some sparks in western Bass strait.

Keeping a close eye on late next week. Some models are getting excited about a deepening surface low dragging moisture from the north, weakening the ridge, which allows a polar pulse follow up. Victoria a touch overdue for this sort of set up.

[hillybilly]

Was expecting a nice kind of day, but currently feral. Not overly cold, but cloud and windy which really makes it unpleasant outside.

Radar looks good currently - solid rainband moving into western Vic. Not heavy, but looks like a pretty general 5-10mm front.

[JasmineStorm]

That rain band is starting to thicken up a little up here. I see Casterton 14mm, Hamilton 12mm so far.

[Sean]

Not hugely confident in this band...

Thinking under 10mm in the outer SE

[hillybilly]

Rainy and blustery up here. Hard to read the radar with bright banding, band running parallel to the beam and the central ranges shredding it, and then bouncing it All over the place.

2mm so far here with a couple of short sharp showers inbetween the spitting bullet like rain.

[Macedonian]

Nice rain up here all evening.

[hillybilly]

Just over 9mm in the gauge this morning. Event now a bit over 25mm, MTD close to 90mm. Need about 15mm to get to average, with a showery Sunday and Monday still to come so maybe yes, maybe no.

Funny system last night. Areas of north central did really well, with ok falls out through the Yarra Valley and southwest of Geelong, but other spots like Melbourne and the northern burbs had a miss.

Tomorrow shaping up as windy. Will be warm in the north, but cooler in the south where uppers are very warm but they don't quite make it to the surface. If it went adiabatic we would be looking at mid 20s in Melbourne so has potential, but looks like temperatures will peak around the high teens or low 20s.

[HarleyB]

22mm here last night, a lovely surprise.

[StratoBendigo]

16mm overnight and 18mm this week in total. We've managed to exceed our Monthly average rainfall

A pleasant surprise and it'll ameliorate much of Saturday's incoming hairdryer.

[JasmineStorm]

5mm overnight , 66mm for the month and getting near to the 82mm average. Good falls to the north of here.

The big BUT though is it's 71mm so far for winter where it would be normally around 170mm to this point. Dams and water tanks should be full and they are a long way off that unfortunately.