Victoria: Cool, wet and windy: July 23-31 2017

Post by **hillybilly** » Sat Jul 22, 2017 7:04 am

Volatile week of weather ahead with a rapid succession of fronts passing over Vic the next week with strong winds and showers. Winds keep swinging NW to SW, but as the week goes on the airmass warms as the unusually warm air over northern Australia slowly filters south. By Saturday we could well see 850Ts above 10C

Too early to call, but both the Melbourne and Vic July records are worth watching

Rainfall totals should add up nicely in the south and alps. Initially snow in the alps, but as the weeks go on it will become rain.

Harley34 · Post by **Harley34** » Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:03 pm

NW Tas radar on the bom shows a squall line of somewhat. Line of showers approaching the border now...

Tassiedave · Post by **Tassiedave** » Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:18 pm

Severe thunderstorm warning issued for western and north western Tasmania. Unusual for any time of year but almost unheard of in July!

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:12 am

Progs not much changed. First of the fronts today with gusty winds and showers. It's going to be quite unstable so a decent chance for the odd rumble. There is quite a decent precipitable water max and fairly mild air aloft so showers today near the front could be quite heavy.

Numerous more fronts in the week ahead. Looks like a typical spring sequence with temps going up and down nicely with the fronts and each having the potential for a rumble or two.

Currently GFS and EC showing record warm air for the coming Saturday ahead of the last front in the sequence. GFS has temperatures spiking to the high twenties in the Mallee

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:10 pm

Nice solid rain here this afternoon - 3mm so far with a bit more to come.

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:41 pm

Nice band of heavy rain on that trough. Peak rainfall rate here of 128mm/hr and a quick 8mm. Keeps things ticking over.

Apparently the odd rumble around, but didn't hear one.

Now,cool and foggy. Waiting to see if the showers to the south edge up.

Dane · Post by **Dane** » Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:54 pm

Some showers here this afternoon with one quite heavy. No thunder though.
4.6mm's in the gauge.

Geoff · Post by **Geoff** » Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:58 pm

BOM are very late with the forecast update this afternoon, is this anything to do with the strike?
(Edit; updated at 5.05pm, 45mins late).

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Jul 23, 2017 6:19 pm

Model updates look good

Front after front and each quite strong. Times around Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday.

Btw forecast of 28C for Mildura on Saturday. That will be new July record high for Victoria by nearly 1C if it comes off. With the current uppers you wouldn't be able to rule out a run at 30C. Crazy for winter

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:56 am

Saturday does look like it'll be on the warm side, but for most of the state not as hot as 18th July 2013.

The 1975 record of 28.8 at Walpeup probably won't get beaten. Much of the state had a string of 20c+ days that July.

Incidentally, 5th frost in a row for us this morning. More than 10mm this coming week (highly likely) will mean that we've had average rainfall for July 2017. But it's not that great just North of here.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:02 am

Foggy and drizzly this morning. Ended with 8.4mm in the gauge. MTD is near 70mm now.

Progs looks showery most days. Not that cold.

Still on track for a record warm Saturday for parts of northern Vic. Melbourne could well have a run a the low 20s looking at GFS - will come down to wind and cloud. The winds look feral.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:45 am

6mm to 9 am brings us to exactly 50mm mtd. Still a way to go to make our July average of 81mm - a chance though.

Dane · Post by **Dane** » Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:25 am

4.6mm's to 9am MTD now 35.5mm's about half the average.
Some showers this week but I doubt we will reach 50mm's for
the month which would still be well below average.

Harley34 · Post by **Harley34** » Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:59 pm

The front/s early next week look decent. There's a succession of fronts starting later this week and it looks healthy. This is just my opinion from looking at the latest 4 day forecast chart by the Bureau. No ridges or highs to block these fronts at the moment, so that's always promising. Just a very brief shower before, the sky looks a little unstable and it's probably something to do with the front passing through just under us today/tonight. Either that or the westerly steam we are in right now. This winter has been unusual so far...

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:05 pm

Cool cloudy day in FC today with just the odd shower. Had a further 0.2mm.

Tomorrow looks interesting. Front mid arvo with a nice bit of instability. The LI drop to near -2 with ToT Tot of 55. Looks like some heavy showers and possible rumbles on the trough. It tends to peak near central areas so could well be another quick 5-15mm event from Melbourne through the northeast ranges. Uppers are reasonably mild, but still looks like there could be a bit of small hail (to me).

It does look more like an early September system than late July

Otherwise, rest of the week looks pretty consistent with earlier model runs, though Saturday's front might be a bit quicker to impact southern Vic.

Sean · Post by **Sean** » Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:47 pm

There's a 19 in Melbourne's 7-day forecast.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 7:56 am

Front for late arvo today look ok on sat pic and radar. Thinking 10mm in FC, and a pretty good chance of a rumble.

There's a 19 in Melbourne's 7-day forecast.

GFS update has 21 or 22C. That's getting close to the July record set only a couple of years ago. Northwest should see a 27C or 28C which will be near or break the July Vic record.

Winter weather looks to have basically last all of 6 weeks this year, with it feeling like spring now

JasmineStorm · Post by **JasmineStorm** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:40 am

2mm so far for the thread, 56mm for the month. Should be adding to this during the thread.

The sub tropical jet stream dropping very low on late Friday, howling at around 350 to 380 km/h through the bight. Nice quick flight for anyone flying from Perth to Melbourne.

Looking at the 850 hPa and 700 hPa winds on Saturday, I would think a severe weather warning will be on the cards.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:33 am

Wierd thundery looking clouds running across the southern Bay ATM. They look almost summer storm like

Shame most of us are to the north.

Had a short shower at home before with a quick 0.5mm.

Looking at the 850 hPa and 700 hPa winds on Saturday, I would think a severe weather warning will be on the cards.

Looks nasty at 850 hPa. Winds around 60 knots

High winds, near record warm air (for July), very low humidity and fairly damp soils is not a good combination when it comes to trees.

Skywalker · Post by **Skywalker** » Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:55 am

hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:33 am Wierd thundery looking clouds running across the southern Bay ATM. They look almost summer storm like Shame most of us are to the north.

Had a short shower at home before with a quick 0.5mm.

Looking at the 850 hPa and 700 hPa winds on Saturday, I would think a severe weather warning will be on the cards.
Looks nasty at 850 hPa. Winds around 60 knots High winds, near record warm air (for July), very low humidity and fairly damp soils is not a good combination when it comes to trees.

Had a fantastic view of those thundery curtain like clouds on the way into work earlier around 9:30am. Was going to get the phone out to take a quick shot but it's a bit tricky when your driving at the same time.

That potential wind forecast for Saturday is a bit of a worry. Hope it doesn't come off.

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Victoria: Cool, wet and windy: July 23-31 2017

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