Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

Victoria - Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18 2017

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
User avatar
93ben
Site Admin
Reactions:
Posts: 602
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2011 12:28 am
Location: Templestowe, Victoria
Contact:

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by 93ben »

Yay finally some decent rain! :)
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Handy 9mm in the gauge this morning. Been decent showers on and off the last few hours. So far we've avoided the King Island and Tasmanian rain shadows so showers are continuing. Nice and foggy currently as well.

BTW is strangely mild for such a bleak day here. It looks like a classic sleet and graupel day up here but the temperature is on 7C (yep appreciate for flat landers that is cold, but for a deep southerly and lots of showers in mid winter I usually expect us to be around 3C or so). Awesome snowfalls in the alps above (about) 1500m. Real season starter/kicker for them.
s
snowfall
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1277
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by snowfall »

4mm so far overnight and this morning - best rain we've had since April. The southerly-oriented flow has been just the right angle for us. Drizzling right now and 8c, so on the mild side. Great to see the garden getting a decent watering. Looks like a few more showers to come across the Melbourne area this morning, though starting to ease.
S
Skywalker
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Skywalker »

We are right in the sweet spot for once with that south westerly stream of showers. It virtually hasn't stopped since I woke up this morning. :D
Bit tricky though loading trucks on the fork in the middle of it.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
T
Tassiedave
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1098
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Tassiedave »

13 mm in Hobart overnight, the first time since March 22nd the Tassie capital has had >10 mm in 24 hours
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Gordon »

hillybilly wrote: Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:19 am BTW is strangely mild for such a bleak day here. It looks like a classic sleet and graupel day up here but the temperature is on 7C (yep appreciate for flat landers that is cold, but for a deep southerly and lots of showers in mid winter I usually expect us to be around 3C or so).
Couldn't agree more - has looked like a classic snow day for us on the charts for a while, but the reality is very different with a drizzly 6C; not even close to snow. Credit to BOM for picking this 'mildness' a long way out - clearly they could see something I couldn't (and I think even Access R was hinting at low snow until recently?) Interestingly, we are experiencing a somewhat colder than average July, yet nowhere near any snow so far this year, which is unusual.

Rainfall-wise, another 4mm overnight, 11.5mm for the event and 37mm mtd - which brings us to a nice round 400mm ytd. We need another 14mm by the end of July to stay on average for ytd. Nearby has done better lately - we've missed a bit being in the lee of the ranges for rain coming in from the north.
User avatar
mick
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1453
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 6:45 pm
Location: Mid North SA Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by mick »

I just noticed that bomb off WA, someone somewhere will get smashed.
User avatar
occluded
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Reactions:
Posts: 611
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 3:26 pm
Location: Mooroolbark 130m asl

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by occluded »

8mm here, the 'best' rainfall in a while here I think. Gusty southerly but as hillybilly said it feels oddly mild outside (AWS on the northern sheltered side shows 12.6C)

Makes a nice change from this rubbish dry/cold/calm winter we've been having, hopefully we can get some of that polar cold core action here eventually.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Feral up here. Sideways rain and fog. Just like winter should be :D Had another 13mm since 7am so 20mm or thereabouts the last 24 hours. Event up to nearly 27mm now. Going into warm air advection so thinking it it will turn drizzly overnight, before the clipper front tomorrow.

Good falls through the Yarra Valley which has had a pretty lean run of late.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Another mm in FC so just over 20mm last 24 hours. That's the best fall here in a couple of months. Been very lean this winter. Foggy most the day going from 5 to 7.5C so really small diurnal range.

Clipper front for tomorrow with a decent bit of westerly warm air advection pre frontal so expecting a pretty drizzly day breaking to showers. Could well score another 10mm here. After the front it will get cold enough for snow down to about 700m, so maybe a chance of sleet here, and flurries around the places like Trentham and Macedon if the moisture hangs around.

Really odd system this one with big huge southerly fetch today and yet it's been drizzle and rain in the lower snow resorts. Never seen that before. Sure can rain in in the alps with Tasman Sea air wrapped in southeasterlies, but never seen this is a classic southerly system. Guess it must of happened, just dont recall it. At higher elevations it has been a bumper system for snow :D
G
Geoff
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2538
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:46 pm
Location: Olinda VIC (470m ASL)

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Geoff »

Gordon wrote: Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:25 am Couldn't agree more - has looked like a classic snow day for us on the charts for a while, but the reality is very different with a drizzly 6C; not even close to snow.
Yes, very strange. Only explanation that makes sense to me is the warmer than average SST directly below us.....

Image

Even with the Antarctic temps directly south of us being around -40C to -70C for the past couple of months, the warm seas are taking the sting out of it on its way north.
AWF Rainfall Details - Monthly rainfall stats. Please post your totals here at the end of each month, thank you
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... &start=180
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Nice and wet this morning. Had about 24mm that last 36 hours, and event now near 30mm. MTD about 60mm (about half the long term average). Rain gradients are really tight - while we've had nearly 20mm since 6am yesterday a site just 5km to our west has only had a couple of mm's in the time, while spots about 20km east of us are approaching 30mm.

Today looks wet here. Thinking another 10mm is a good chance. Classic cold air pool over us with SW'ly sort of day. Good for wet weather through the Yarra Valley, Otways, and South Gippsland.

Uppers are chilly - mid arvo they will dip to near -4C which is about the cut-off for flurries about the tops of the Dandenongs. Looking at the model sounding the freezing level dips to about 1000m or a tiny bit lower which would tend to mean flurries to about 700m pretty generally so something making it to 560m (our house) isn't out of the question. Been a lean lean year for low level stuff - had a couple of sleet showers in early June but that's been it.

A good bigger picture of where our air is coming from is this one http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#T2_anom . The "average" period is a very recent warm one (to move it to standard 1961-1990 you have to take add 0.2C to all the anomalies). Across the whole Southern Hemisphere is pretty warm almost everywhere in the Southern Ocean. The Antractic has been basically cut-off from the westerlies for weeks with the cold air bottled up over the continent. The current Antractic Sea ice extent is also the lowest on record. Lots of wierd things going on. BTW that warm spot over WA will come into play next week. It looks like Northern Australia could well see it's hottest July weather on record next week, and we'll go into a mild rainy pattern in a moist and mild (for winter) westerly to northwesterly flow.

Image
S
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2802
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

If you take a close look at the charts for yesterday, the temps right through the atmosphere weren't that cold. It was air that wasn't polar modified (it came off the ocean) sandwiched between the first shot of cold air which came through on Tuesday via Adelaide and the coldest (polar modified) air now over Tasmania. I've seen this many times in the past, notably in winter 2001 and July 2005.

Interestingly in both 2001 and 2005, August in those years saw significant polar outbreaks with low-level snow in Vic.

It's been ridiculously cold in Uruguay South America over the last couple of days....
S
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2802
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

Incidentally, it's rather chilly today. Had a 0 degC start and now it's a cloudy and breezy 7 degC at 10:30am.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Getting close to sleet here now. Last shower dropped it back to 4.3C, and currently heavy graupel outside. Haven't seen any wet flakes yet, but only 0.5 to 1C off the typical cutoff for a stray flake. Horses and chickens aren't happy :o
It's been ridiculously cold in Uruguay South America over the last couple of days....
Best snow in Santiago since 2007. The hill suburbs got a couple of inches in spots. The cold outbreak shows up great in the global map. Clearly bigger than anything else going on ATM.
D
Dane
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1659
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Dane »

8.6m mm's of rain in the 24 hours to 9am today - 13.4mm's in the last 48 hours
heaviest rain here since May.
MTD now 29.9mm's - Ave is 73mm's still short of my driest July 36.6mm's in 2006.
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

I'm seeing a bit of moisture on the radar starting to push into the southern areas of the Macedon Ranges. If it can get through the range, Mt Macedon would be a chance of snow flurries? Seems like freezing levels are near 1000m atm.

Kyneton is about 20mm for the thread, 53mm MTD. Not too bad.

Update from over here in NZ - Cold core cyclone is starting to develop in the Tasman. Looks like a 968 hPa direct hit, with a 36 hour attack on the north eastern and south western flanks. The latitude of the hit is similar to Victoria, so IMO the polar vortex with warm Tasman mix is creating this monster. I think it's only a matter of time before Vic gets one as well. Maybe end of the July, start of August.
Attachments
NZ map July 21 Access R.jpg
NZ map July 21 Access R.jpg (340.96 KiB) Viewed 9650 times
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Gordon »

Wow, that is a spectacular map JS and very low central pressure at <970. I'm trying to recall when (if ever?) we've had a low that intense near Victoria?

Locally, surprised at how far west some of those showers seem to be training - this morning I thought that was it for us. Feels like a snow day here at last but more because of the cloud shape and wind chill - in reality, at 5 C it's getting too warm. Nice to see Lake Mountain and Baw Baw getting decent falls at long last.
S
Skywalker
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Skywalker »

Gordon wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:36 am Locally, surprised at how far west some of those showers seem to be training - this morning I thought that was it for us.
That makes two of us Gordon. When I was leaving for work this morning all the activity was out in the eastern suburbs as you would expect from a south westerly situation, but now there are widespread showers over the entire metro area. :o
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Cold air moving in now. Dipped to 3.4C here with the last shower with sleet. No real flakes, just slush. Waiting for the next good shower which could tip it over to snow.
Locked