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Victoria - Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18 2017

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Gordon
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Gordon »

Yes I may have spoken too soon - 3C in the last shower just now and the odd slushy flake. Still not snow, but it's conceivable. If only this cold stuff was through a few hours earlier or later.

Macedonian will get proper snow surely?
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Macedonian »

Im at work at Macedon Gordon so im not sure about up on the mountain.
Ive got a Netatmo weather station at home that reports to my phone and its been hovering around 3.1C to 3.2C so just a bit too warm id say. There mightve been some up.on the top of the mountain though. Really nice light here at Bolobek with the sun and passing showers. A classic mid winter day. Unlike all tge others this winter.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Macedonian »

Temp has dropped to 4C at Macedon and 3.3C at Hesket and my weather station seems to be stuck on 3.5.
Def snow up there under this rainband.
Its freezing working outside :(
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Macedonian »

And it just updated. 2.7C at home 8-)
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Ripper hail shower here. Temperature down to 3.5 C. Thought it might snow but just a tad too warm.

Days like these frustrate. Take away the trend and it would have been a good snow day :(
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Looks like snow has just fallen on top of the mount, Macedonian ;)
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Geoff »

Last shower dropped solid hail in Sassafras at 3.30pm turning the ground white.
If we had cold seas south of us we'd be digging ourselves out by now.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Nice hail shower and now just a sleet one.
Last shower dropped solid hail in Sassafras at 3.30pm turning the ground white.
If we had cold seas south of us we'd be digging ourselves out by now.
Sea are warmer for a reason Geoff. The lack of snow is not about the weather, it's about the climate. The backgrounds warmer, so the weather patterns have to be that much more extreme now :( Take about 1C of the map below to see what a similar system in the 1950s experienced. Snow and heavy snow used to be frequent here. It hasn't snowed properly here since 2008. It's 30 years since we last had snow which lasted more than a day.

Image
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like the showers are done, clouds clearing and winds dropping. Should make for a nice crisp night :) EC has -1C for us.

Max for today ended on 5.2C. 10mm of rain/alert/graupel.

Event almost made it to 40mm so a good outcome.

Nice couple of days ahead, then next system starts from Sunday :)
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Macedonian »

JasmineStorm wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:38 pm Looks like snow has just fallen on top of the mount, Macedonian ;)
Apparently there was some up there JS.
It has been hovering around 1.5C at my place since about 3.30pm. Hope it goes clear and calm for a super frost.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Geoff »

hillybilly wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:30 pm Take about 1C of the map below to see what a similar system in the 1950s experienced. Snow and heavy snow used to be frequent here.
Well obviously, the 1940's to 1970's was the well documented global cooling cycle. Snow was more common everywhere then.
The warmer cycle since then has logically coincided with less snowfall for many parts.
I note that the official charts from Rutgers University who provide snowcover anomalies for NOAA show Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent has been gradually increasing for the past 30 years, since the 1980's. Hard to tell for the S.H. as it is mostly ocean of course.
If Brazil, Argentina, South Africa and New Zealand (North Is) can get snow fairly commonly as in recent winters I still maintain our lack of snow is almost entirely down to pure bad luck with the Polar Vortex peaking over them and not in our region. :)
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

I note that the official charts from Rutgers University who provide snowcover anomalies for NOAA show Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent has been gradually increasing for the past 30 years, since the 1980's. Hard to tell for the S.H. as it is mostly ocean of course.
Here the full dataset. Winter snow in the northern hemisphere is dominated by precip and pretty stable still. Summer snow is dominated by temperature and is dropping.

Image

The best measure of snow is glaciers mass balance. Here's the trend for them.

Image

If you want to look at all the ice and snow then best to look at sea level. This glaciers on every continent apart from possibly Antarctica are shrinking.

Image

Sadly they all say the same. Less ice, less snow. That's what all the photos show locally. All those old photos of deep snow in the hills in Victoria. There are some good written records. Hobart used to get around 20 snowfalls a decade. It's now down to around 5. Yep, it snows but much less.

Ferny Creek will get a proper snowfall again, but it won't go back to the good old days unless the climate does.

Not interested in climate change discussions, but one can't get away from the fact that we get less snow now, and the reason why is its warmer :(

If it was bad luck or just the weather then there would be equal ups and downs, but they are all down :(
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

Frost now setting in, and it's only 8:30pm. Brrrrr...
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Geoff »

Thought the showers had gone, but radar shows another batch moving up from the south. Oddly temps are on the rise here, up to 4.5C so probably just rain now.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Macedonian »

Its down to 0.6C up here. My max today was 3.3C. A real winters day.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Frost here this morning. Nice way to finish the cold outbreak.

Across the past three days we scored 10, 14 and 8mm so very handy. We got ~8mm earlier so event delivered a very very welcome 40mm.

Hoping to follow up with something substantial next week. Two positive signs are the SAM is diving negative and the Indian Ocean has warmed sharply off our northwest coast. After a few months of climate dragging down our rainfall prospects look rather better :D

Here a photo from the yard following the best hail/graupel shower of the day. Temperature was about 3C at the time.
Image
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Kyneton was -2.1c this morning. Now 54mm for month and 368mm YTD.

Interesting discussion on the snow across the globe.

Update from here in NZ - This is now a cold core category 2 cyclone. It's currently bombing around 967 hPa of the east coast of the south island. Here in Auckland, it's about 992 hPa with outer band spawning multi cell cluster attacks from the north west off the Tasman. Check out this map that someone in the NZ metservice had to draw up for the cyclone. That's as busy as a map can get :)
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Macedonian »

I had -3 here at work in macedon and -0.3 at home on the mt.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Coldest morning of the year for us in the end with a pretty decent frost. Bottomed out at 1.6C.

The temperature series is a classic. Just before 9am there was a puff of wind which pushed the cold air below the ridgeline over my AWS on the ridge.

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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Geoff »

Astonished to find 42mm in the Nylex (3 days worth), gets us back on track with 80mm MTD and likely good falls next week to come.
JasmineStorm, I see a State of Emergency has been declared for Otago region this evening, Dunedin in danger of flooding. Christchurch too has had its highest tide on record with a combination of very low pressure, a king tide and gale force winds! :o
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