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Victoria - Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18 2017

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hillybilly
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Victoria - Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like a cracking system this week with a strong front approaching on July 13, moving across on the 14th then cold and showery for a few days. 850Ts could well drop to around -4C which is cold enough for snow below 700m. Thinking sleet and graupel a good chance here in Ferny Creek, but could tip towards snow on the more bullish runs.

Good falls of both snow and rain. Could well see pretty general 15-40mm, heavier in the usual spots. Blizzards in the alps... will be at Bright second half of the week so can report first hand :D
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Macedonian »

Finally some good news in this most benign Winter.
We really need some decent rain.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

Looks like good agreement between most of the forecast models. Another 20mm will take us quite close to average July rainfall :D

Some rather cold upper temps are likely too with several cold fronts. The vibe is strong.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Polar Vortex meets the mid latitudes according to 74 members across EPS and GEFS. Haven't seen a line up like that for a while and considering it's mid July , IMO July 17th to 18th has the potential on a decent upgrade with that current set up. If there is enough moisture (which currently looks ok) its snowmageddon and widespread 20+ mm rainfall.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Guess it had to happen... with the models winding down the event somewhat. Still looks solid, but the uppers are not that cold anymore. Mostly in the 0 to -2C range. System is pretty complicated with a front on Friday, then follow up fronts next week, possibly cutting off. That said, Progs are pretty jumpy beyond Sunday so wouldn't try to pin down the details.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

GFS has too much ridging, but if anything EC has upgraded this morning. It looks like the AAO is finally heading in the right direction:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

Who knows what'll happen?
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Yes SB, the westerly conveyor belt is ramping up on AAO.

Antarctica has warmed by around 2.5 degrees in the last 7 days, the polar leak north is underway. Here in NZ, winter has arrived. I'm starting to get confident of an aggressive vortex bulge towards SE OZ next week :)
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

The westerly driven sequence on EC 1207 00z is showing a gradual break down of the ridge until it gives up the ghost late next week. Then it's a showing a full scale polar attack over 24 hours late next week, landing snow in Victoria at levels not seen for a long time, sea level on the Mornington peninsula. Late next week is a long way off but I could see the temp leak from Antarctica early today....
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Front is starting to look more impressive on the Sat Pic, I see showers starting to show up in western Vic.

Getting smashed over here in NZ. Brutual cold core gyre has spawned off the east coast of the North Island. 167 km/h gust near Wellington, Snow down to 300m on the North Island. South Island has shut down. The polar vortex bulge has created a mid latitude cyclonic bomb.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Wilko »

Yeah my teenage son is in Queenstown Skiing at the moment
They will have some awesome pics
Any idea when it will clear for them ?
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Wilko wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:08 pm Yeah my teenage son is in Queenstown Skiing at the moment
They will have some awesome pics
Any idea when it will clear for them ?
They will have amazing pics :) The South Island should start getting better tonight, the North Island is peaking ATM.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Front for tomorrow looks ok, but not great. Thinking maybe 10mm for Ferny Creek, with most of Vic getting less. Ok falls near the coast and ranges, but nothing too remarkable. Airmass ahead of the front is quite mild, and there is actually a weak warm front in eastern areas which is ushering in warmer uppers ahead of the cold front. Thinking probably sleet or rain in the alps initially, dropping tomorrow with a decent top up. Will be nice cold air by Saturday which could throw up a bit of frost.

Been up at Mt Buffalo this arvo and we spitting rain from about 4pm at 1600m.

Next weeks sequence looks rather cooler, with a quite extreme fetch of southerlies as the high is way way south. The set up reminds of the the best could outbreaks that we tend to get with anticyclonic voriticity well south, becoming neutral then cyclonic over us. That sequence brings cold and very unstable air up so showers should be plentiful :D just one thing that is a bit odd... I would have usually expected 850Ts well below -4C but models not that cold. Strange... maybe I'm missing something or the low ice extent in the southern ocean etc is messing a bit with our cold outbreak :?
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Tassiedave »

Good rain falling and more to come, 27 mm Sheffield, 21.6 mm Scottsdale, 20.2 mm Strahan, 19.2 mm Launceston, Devonport 18 mm, St. Helens 1.8 mm, Hobart 0.8 mm,
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

6.3mm overnight in Ferny Creek. Pretty much as predicted by the models. Front falling over as it crossed so falls pretty patchy overall and only substantial around the southwest. Great to see those good falls in northern Tasmania after such a lean start to winter.

Today's looks quite unstable behind the front. Thinking there could be some decent convective showers in the northwesterly stream with some quite heavy, but expecting hit miss.

Fronts/lows for next week holding. Unstable and chilly right through. Bit of a split on the models with GFS and fair bit colder and EC.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Sean »

Just pittance as per usual. Gave the top 0.5mm of soil a good soaking, I suppose.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Sean »

From nine.com.au:

"A bitter cold front is expected roll across the country's south-east over the weekend, bringing below freezing temperatures to Melbourne, Canberra and parts of New South Wales.

Melbourne will bear the brunt, as temperatures plummet to just 11 degrees tomorrow, with a low of five in the morning, and four Sunday morning."


Freaking ridiculous. Last I checked, below freezing was 0c or lower. BOM hasn't even foretasted Melbourne a top of 11c. It's 12, though knowing Melbourne, 13 is more likely.

These people wouldn't know what 'freezing' is even if it frostbit them in the a**
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Macedonian »

Its so annoying. Stupid hyped up reporting about nothing more unusual than a reasonably mediocre midwinter cold front. Boring!
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by hillybilly »

Been up at Mt Buffalo today. Got a cracking but short lived band of snow about 1pm. Was wet snow down to about 1100m and quite a blizzard at 1600m. Was a few quick cms in it. Sadly, lasted only about 20 minutes :( The overall snow covers pretty lousy, but not unexpected given how dry it's been and the lack of proper cold air. Patchy cover at best below 1500m up there.

Cold air starting to move in now so some showers building.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by Geoff »

Can report some graupel and small hail in Olinda from these first showers. Temp. 7.3C and falling.
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Re: Finally a cold outbreak: July 13-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Good to see a bit more cold air moving in with those showers. Kyneton has had 6mm today, still around 8c. Models are wobbling around as normal for next week. GFS and EC giving some polar pulse upgrades again.

Another brutual day on the north island here in NZ, howling southerly and side ways rain showers.
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