Vic – July 3- 10 2017 - Winter lows and troughs 2017

[JasmineStorm]

Haven’t seen one of these for a while on the BoM maps All models agree with the low moving in from the Bight on Monday morning. Currently the BoM’s MSLP showing a mid latitude cyclonic gyre spinning near 990 hPa with a conveyer belt of troughs moving in behind the initial front. Finer detail to come over the next few days.

[Geoff]

Yep, looking much more seasonal JS!
Being a gardener and outside all the time, I get a "feel" for how the seasons are going, and it's been pretty clear to me that the seasons have been running a month behind schedule for the last year. Last winter didn't want to leave until well into September, spring was late starting leading to last summer spluttering into life very late, but as we remember summer then just kept on going into late March with that late very dry spell well into autumn.
Now winter is finally looking to get going as we head into July.

[stevco123]

The weird thing is, we haven't had a 20 degree day since late April. Usually we get 3 or 4 in May.

[JasmineStorm]

Yes Geoff, the seasons are becoming less traditional.

Interesting stat Stevco - it's certainly been milder than normal but a lot more steady with little frontal activity.

The low is still lining up on the models but drifting a little more towards Tassie on Monday. Like all systems this winter, it looks like its going to struggle to get moisture from the north. Plenty of troughs going west to east behind it, so snow totals should be fairly decent in the ALPS next week. Hoping for once, we get a state wide upgrade....

[93ben]

Is there a possibility this could be the driest winter for ages?

[Sean]

Crap season so far. Topsoil was dry before these light showers.

Feeling a bit chilly today.. big swing towards winter weather might be on the cards since there's no such thing a gradual transition anymore.

[Harley34]

The 3rd-4th looks alright, but the 7th-8th looks better. The 3rd-4th looks to be a falling front around a low in the bight and the 7th-8th looks to be a standing up front in the bight connecting with another in the southern. No blocking high or ridge with a possible cut-off too. We will just have to wait and see.

Tonight will be a cold/actually freezing night in many parts in the city/areas of the state. I can't remember the eastern suburbs of Melbourne going to 1, 0 or below too many times (especially the suburbs closer to the city) and it doesn't happen often that you see the city forecast for 2. Generally, it's no less than 3 or 4 with more average winter nights between 6 and 8...

[Tassiedave]

A drier and warmer June than average. The lowest St Helens June rainfall on record. Launceston 20.8 mm (Average 68.6 mm), 13.8 degrees (Average 13.1 degrees) Hobart 6.6 mm (Average 54.2 mm), 14.1 degrees (Average 12.0 degrees) St Helens 2.8 mm (Average 66.1 mm), 14.9 degrees (Average 14.0 degrees) Wynyard 30.2 mm (Average 109.2 mm), 13.9 degrees (Average 13.4 degrees)

[Harley34]

A drier and warmer June than average. The lowest St Helens June rainfall on record. Launceston 20.8 mm (Average 68.6 mm), 13.8 degrees (Average 13.1 degrees) Hobart 6.6 mm (Average 54.2 mm), 14.1 degrees (Average 12.0 degrees) St Helens 2.8 mm (Average 66.1 mm), 14.9 degrees (Average 14.0 degrees) Wynyard 30.2 mm (Average 109.2 mm), 13.9 degrees (Average 13.4 degrees)

I hope July is colder and wetter and so far, it looks to be...

[hillybilly]

Nice update on the models. They now show a strong low passing just south of us. Should see bumper falls along the coast and heavy snow in the alps. Thinking this should dump at least 50cm at the major resorts and kick off the ski season. Thinking 25-50mm for Ferny Creek which will be very welcome. Just need to stock up on the fire wood

Being a gardener and outside all the time, I get a "feel" for how the seasons are going, and it's been pretty clear to me that the seasons have been running a month behind schedule for the last year. Last winter didn't want to leave until well into September, spring was late starting leading to last summer spluttering into life very late, but as we remember summer then just kept on going into late March with that late very dry spell well into autumn.

What the data shows is pretty clear. It's getting warmer all year round. The warming is greater in spring because warming feedbacks on soil moisture so we have summerlike conditions arrive a month or so earlier. Summers are becoming more tropical as the Hadley Cell expands. We have more easterlies and tropical like weather. When it rains it rains harder. Rainfall in northern Australia has increased substantially. Autumns are getting drier with highs becoming stronger and the westerlies failing to break through til mid winter in most years. Since 1950 the average pressure over southern Australia has increased by about 2hPa between April and June, which has reduced rainfall by 10-20%.

That's what the data shows. The reasons are straightforward. The tropics are expanding and the upper level westerly winds are weakening and the atmosphere is becoming more vertically stable. The fronts that once dominated our weather are increasingly missing us.

I really really wish it wasn't happening. While these changes make for more and more nice weather in winter, we pay for it in summer... I also like winters to be cold, wet, windy and snowy

Is there a possibility this could be the driest winter for ages?

A chance but hope not. June looks to have been record low for Vic. The recent years to watch for comparison are 1982 and 2006. They both ended very badly for rural Victorians.

[stevco123]

So just a quick question regarding the above HB (and it is purely out of interest, not to start a typing war about climate change):

Nearly everyone i have spoken to who has been in australia longer than 40 years tells me our summers are later, shorter and start off cooler overall. They can remember days on end of 35+ yet these days we might get 1 or 2 or 3 and then it goes back below 25 on the next day.

Even i can't remember in the 25 years I've been here ever recording minimums of below 5 degrees which last nearly well into December. And this has only increased about 10 years ago.

[Sean]

Even i can't remember in the 25 years I've been here ever recording minimums of below 5 degrees which last nearly well into December. And this has only increased about 10 years ago.

It's due to reduced cloud cover, therefore moisture in the sky.

Water vapour is an effective greenhouse gas. It traps thermal radiation. Melbourne is prone to fronts, which brings cloud, but when front frequency is reduced, so are nighttime minimums.

Also, human memory is notoriously bad. What people 'remember' may not reflect true weather data.

[hillybilly]

Nearly everyone i have spoken to who has been in australia longer than 40 years tells me our summers are later, shorter and start off cooler overall. They can remember days on end of 35+ yet these days we might get 1 or 2 or 3 and then it goes back below 25 on the next day.

People just don't have the memory. When you are young your memories are detailed and the first hot summer, hot days really stick in the mind. As you age the just blur.

It's funny that I can recall in great detail summer 1974/75 - particularly February 1975. It was hot - about 1C above average and we had three days above 100F. I recall spending days in the pool and getting burned too a crisp (I was 6 years old). I remember summer 1981/82 and 1982/83. I was an early teen. I can remember Ash Wednesday, seeing fires running along the ridges and can recall what the weather was like in great detail. I can remember going out about 7pm and it was cooler and raining. It was sureal. But recent summers have been hotter and I can't recall anywhere near the detail. I can remember the horror December day in 2015 (when the Otway's fire started) and Black Saturday, but my memory of all those 40C+ days is nothing like me recall of the February 1975 heatwave which was 5C cooler. I'm pretty smart... as I suspect everyone on this forum is... but I wouldn't dare use my memories over data.

When you look at the data there are some funny things going on. In Vic the increasing pressure has actually extended the frost season in spring while also bringing forwards the first hot days. That is pretty easy to understand when you think about it - it's getting hotter overall, but the synoptic conditions for frost are becoming more common. More frost doesn't disprove the warming, it's just part of everything changing and sometimes the combination of changes does some strange things.

This doesn't mean that you shouldn't use your mind and experience. In the Dandenongs if you are observant you can see things are changing. Lots of the big trees are severly stressed, and many have died. Many large tree ferns out of the gullies have died. It has basically stopped snowing (it will snow again for sure, but there used to be heavy snow often). When you look back in time there are all these wonderful photos of deep snow. I've got picture of people skiing in Kalorama on about a foot of snow. A snowman nearly 7 foot tall in Olinda. Photos of (about) six inches of snow in Belgrave at 200m. My 90 year old neighbour (who has now died) had skis in her garage. They had them for winter because snow was so common in Ferny Creek. I quizzed her what it was like. She told me about winters when they were snowbound for days. One year they had nearly 3 feet of snow (she said it came up to her hip). Apparently the roads were closed for a week - they had to walk to get bread and milk.

Anyway, not really the place for this discussion.

[hillybilly]

Back to the event, model updates generally holding.

Looks like a really productive week ahead with GFS, EC and CMC all showing general 20-50mm falls. Thinking alpine areas could well pick up 100mm, with lots of snow above 1200m. Just in time for school holidays

Looks like a classic mid-winter weather sequence packing the lot - rainbands (rotating around the lows), showers, cold air thunderstorms, local hail, gusty winds and potentially a cold outbreak towards the end of the week with snow level dropping below 1000m. The initial low is cool but not overly cold, so snow wil stay in the alps even though the synoptics looks very good.

Hoping this gives us a good jump on the July total and claw back on the deficiencies clocked up in May and June.

[Sean]

Desperate now. Having to water the garden in the middle of winter...

Hopefully this system delivers, but I won't hold my breath.

[hillybilly]

Progs dropped back a bit, particularly for the first part. System Synoptics are good, but the air ahead of the system is very dry which will somewhat limit rain.

That said, the weather stays showery basically right through for the next two weeks, with multiple lows and troughs. Looks like it will add up in the alps and about the coast, but be a bit of a mixed bag elsewhere.

Desperate here now. Having to water the garden in the middle of winter...

Got relatives in Melbourne northern suburbs who mentioned they have had to water plants. Even though it's cool, the sunny weather and last few days very dry air saps the moisture. Today really felt like a positive IOD or El Niño winters day to me with lots of static zaps and obvious dry air.

[Sean]

Got relatives in Melbourne northern suburbs who mentioned they have had to water plants. Even though it's cool, the sunny weather and last few days very dry air saps the moisture. Today really felt like a positive IOD or El Niño winters day to me with lots of static zaps and obvious dry air.

It's the ferns that are struggling. I can honestly say this is the first time I've ever seen them droop in winter. I do have relatively sandy soil, but this dry air is sapping their trunks of moisture.

Hopefully showers will develop, but this winter is reminding me of the one before last.. thank god for autumn is all I can say. The BOM aren't progging much though. 2-5mm, 2-6mm, falls like that don't really achieve much.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't enjoying the wonderful blue skies, but I want rain please!

[StratoBendigo]

EC doesn't look too bad for us in the coming days (18mm this week is forecast), but I reckon it's overestimating totals again.

Icey cold outside atm. 2degC with a Northeasterly breeze at 8pm...

[JasmineStorm]

Latest Access R starting to show a little more promise for up here as well. Might get 20mm by Wednesday. EC just modelled light snow up here on Friday coming from a northerly. Might give that a few more runs before I believe it

[HarleyB]

I'm a few hours ahead for obs for the thread dates but we're below 0 again here already! -0.4 so far, let's see how low we can go (forecast was for 1)