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Vic - Sequence of fronts ending with cold mornings: June 22-July 2 2017

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hillybilly
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Vic - Sequence of fronts ending with cold mornings: June 22-July 2 2017

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like the never ending high might finally budge and allow the upper trough to move into our region and throw up a sequence of fronts. Bit of a way off, so not confident about the details, but general pattern seems to be a low developing inland over SW WA by mid-week eventually moving into the westerlies. This then allows a series of fronts coming up from the southwest.

Models showing OK falls - not big total - but something... Will be quite mild at the start of the sequence, but cool down with each successive front.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by StratoBendigo »

Certainly looking cooler this coming weekend. OCF has 11degC maximums for Friday, Saturday, Sunday here. That'll feel positively Antarctic compared with the current string of silly 16 degC days. Low 700 HPa temps feature in the mix. Not much rain though....
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by JasmineStorm »

The high pressure boredom has almost been sapped all of the weather life out of me.

EC 1906 00z is predicting winter arrives from June 29 and has an initial cold core double headed cyclone followed up by a polar jet charged ice wall, spawned from a 937 hPa southern monster :) - not that I'm taking it too serious this far out but at least its breathing some life into these charts ;)
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by stevco123 »

Ridiculous temps for June. Fair enough winter proper doesn't start til the solstice but for it to be 12 degrees at 10pm is a little weird let's just say.

At least the chance of an el nino has significantly diminished.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by StratoBendigo »

Good old fashioned June frost here this morning. Still lots of ice around well after 9am.

Tasmania looks like it will cop the brunt of the cold air on the weekend, although both Saturday and Sunday will also be cold here.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by Geoff »

EC (Norwegian) has a funny looking symbol for us on Thursday 29th night :laughing:

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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by hillybilly »

Progs tending to upgrade a little then getting rather excited for mid next week :) latest models tending to show pretty general 10-25mm falls, with potential for 25 plus in the usual wet spots about the ranges and coast between Friday and about Tuesday. Bit hard to know what next week will bring, but currently EC and CMC have a strong old outbreak which GFS has a big low.

Really need this one. Most of Vic is sitting on less than 20% of the June average.

Btw the start of our approaching change dropping some locally heavy falls in far southwest WA with a developing low in the easterlies. Some unusual slow moving storms around the Capes overnight and this morning.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by Tassiedave »

Mild temperatures in the south east today. Standout was Campania with 18.8 degrees, other notables were Hobart 17.5, Grove 17.2, Bushy Park 17. Rainfall Mt Read 22.8, Grove 6.8 mm, Cape Grim 5.2 mm, Wynyard 3.2 mm, Sheffield 2.4 mm, Launceston 1.6 mm. Hobart with 2.6 mm means that it has now exceeded its previous low rainfall June record.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by JasmineStorm »

Not a lot going on up here, just the normal frosts, no rain. Had -2c yesterday, a lot milder this morning.

EC just modelled zilch again around Kyneton for the next 10 days. Hopefully it's just a quick downgrade but if it's correct, we will smash the previous 1969 driest June record.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by hillybilly »

EC just modelled zilch again around Kyneton for the next 10 days. Hopefully it's just a quick downgrade but if it's correct, we will smash the previous 1969 driest June record.
EC update is rather a shocker. Front of sorts for the weekend, but then back to a big high scenario which could dominate our weather for another 10 days. CMC and GFS have also downgraded, but do give more for us with the low/trough on the weekend, and push a couple of fronts up ahead of the approaching high next week. ACCESS seems to more or less split the difference between the models.

Not sure what to make of that sequence - pretty clear we've finally got an opportunity for some OK falls with the low currently SW of Perth entering the westerlies but a fair bit of uncertainty as to how much it will deliver.

Drizzly morning in the Dandenong thanks to weak front managing to slide up around the high. 2mm so far this morning. Bit surprised - EC did have a bit for us, but I wasn't confident of anything.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by stevco123 »

0.8mm so far this morning here. Still, we've made more in dew accumulation this month than that figure.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by StratoBendigo »

Another 0 degC frost this morning. Groundhog day.

Some of the charts don't look too bad from Saturday onwards, particularly 18Z GFS.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by hillybilly »

Progs have gone from good to bad if your looking for rain :roll:

Looks like the low now near Perth won't properly enter the westerlies as it's drifted further north and moving slower, which means we just stay dominated by highs. There will be a front late Friday and then a period of SW'ly flow but rain looks to be fairly light and coastal. Then in comes another high.

We are running out of time to salvage the month now.

Out west Perth has scored a direct hit from the small subtropical low. Heavy falls on the coast ATM. Lucky them :)
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by StratoBendigo »

Yeah, looks like next to nothing here too. Well on track for driest June on record.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by JasmineStorm »

Same old story up here.

It seems increasing likely that June 2017 is going to go into the record books for the driest ever. That said, I'm seeing a common agreement across nearly all the models that a decent ECL will form off eastern Vic and NSW and breakdown this stubborn ridge, allowing a polar surge to break into SE OZ in the first week of July. GFS on the 18z run has gone a nuclear ECL on east Gippsland for July 1st and 2nd with a 250mm+ water bomb.
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by stevco123 »

JasmineStorm wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:01 am Same old story up here.

It seems increasing likely that June 2017 is going to go into the record books for the driest ever. That said, I'm seeing a common agreement across nearly all the models that a decent ECL will form off eastern Vic and NSW and breakdown this stubborn ridge, allowing a polar surge to break into SE OZ in the first week of July. GFS on the 18z run has gone a nuclear ECL on east Gippsland for July 1st and 2nd with a 250mm+ water bomb.
Haha, it looks like you copied and pasted your post 4 times in the last month. We've seen and heard the same possibility 4 weeks in a row, yet nothing is breaking up this stupid high pressure system. This is very European-like, but without the fun very cold weather that it allows to prevail in winter.

Not the driest June here, as yesterday's 1.8mm ensured we won't beat the record for Cranbourne. Phew!
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by JasmineStorm »

stevco123 wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:52 am
JasmineStorm wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:01 am Same old story up here.

It seems increasing likely that June 2017 is going to go into the record books for the driest ever. That said, I'm seeing a common agreement across nearly all the models that a decent ECL will form off eastern Vic and NSW and breakdown this stubborn ridge, allowing a polar surge to break into SE OZ in the first week of July. GFS on the 18z run has gone a nuclear ECL on east Gippsland for July 1st and 2nd with a 250mm+ water bomb.
Haha, it looks like you copied and pasted your post 4 times in the last month. We've seen and heard the same possibility 4 weeks in a row, yet nothing is breaking up this stupid high pressure system. This is very European-like, but without the fun very cold weather that it allows to prevail in winter.

Not the driest June here, as yesterday's 1.8mm ensured we won't beat the record for Cranbourne. Phew!

Yes, definitely agree Stevco - Postings of the failed models is definitely copy and paste stuff. All of them have underestimated the strength of this HP ridge. Records are about to be rewritten in most Victorian regions. To think in Kyneton we had near record April rainfall and now possibly June record lowest rainfall is bizarre.

One thing that I do know for sure, measured temperatures in the Antarctic over the last 2 weeks have ranged from 1 to 2.5c lower than the 1979 to 2000 average. Indian ocean off NW OZ is now 0.5 to 1c above the 1980 to 2010 average. When that ridge breaks down, its going to erupt in SE OZ :)
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by StratoBendigo »

Korean seasonal climate model doesn't think that much will change in the next 6 months. More dry weather to prevail across Southern Australia:
http://www.apcc21.org/ser/outlook.do?lang=en
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by stevco123 »

My weather station reckons next week will also be noticeably cooler than the 16s and 17s places have had this week.

Going for 12 or 13 for 8 days straight with low minimums, although that could be affected by annoying cloud cover
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Re: Sequence of fronts: June 22-

Post by Geoff »

StratoBendigo wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:59 am Korean seasonal climate model doesn't think that much will change in the next 6 months. More dry weather to prevail across Southern Australia:
http://www.apcc21.org/ser/outlook.do?lang=en
I've bookmarked those charts Strato, will see how they fared at the end of November.
High pressure does seem to dominate the models right into mid July at the moment.
I wouldn't know where to look, but it would be interesting to see if the average pressure for the last month or so over Australia has broken any records.
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