Nice and sunny up here. Standard 2 to 3c start. Certainly been nice and foggy down south.
As HB and SB pointed out, models are moving around. Fine line between getting soaked and not. Still significant shadowing south of the ranges but as the upper trough moves through Vic , parts of northern Tassie looks like getting a drenching courtesy of a warm Tasman flow.
The sub tropical jet stream is really cranking now. Winds up around 260 km/h in parts and a little bend is starting to appear in it with the upper trough commencing to sharpen. The upper atmosphere is starting to set itself up, as the equatorial moisture feed starts to move into position. Now its starts to get interesting ....
Access R is starting to shift the hit zone eastward. Here is the latest Access R compared to EC for 10am Friday morning for run 16 May 00z. If Access R holds up, a more north central and northern country focus will start to come into contention. it still seems like south of the divide is much less.
I'm not looking past 72 hours ATM
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Models loosing interest with this sequence for areas east of (about) Ballarat. Current EC has very little around Melbourne the next week Other models are a bit better.
This does look like mainly and western and northern parts system. Always the chance the models might have a last minute shift east.
Latest Access R (May 16 06z) has moved the hit zone eastward again and more south with Melbourne metro / Geelong 20 to 30mm Friday whilst upgrading a large area of 60mm+ in north central / northern country.
Few spots of rain and plenty of cloud. Currently sitting on 6.2mm for the month but I’m getting confident that is all going to change soon. 25 to 35mm is what most models are saying at the moment for Kyneton but there is a lot of potential in this one. It looks like the atmospheric river will be running at 35 to 40mm Friday morning into northern Victoria.
Access R keeps increasing rainfall intensity on each run but as expected it wobbles the position of the trough on each run. Currently it has a 110mm + water bomb hitting Swan Hill, Kerang and Boort with around 80mm around Bendigo up until 4am Saturday morning. If that keeps lining up, I would expect a SWW issued for heavy rain by the BoM tomorrow afternoon.
Just a grey nothing sort of day here, an odd spit of rain but nothing more.
All the rain is dumping on Bass Strait (again), they really should build a dam out there!
Not a lot changing on the models for here. EC and Access R about 30mm, GFS around 20mm. Access R 1705 06z run still showing 60 to 70mm around Bendigo. Around Melbourne is still light.
Hard to get excited about this sequence now for central and southern Vic. Models all showing good falls across most of the Mallee, Wimmera and western parts of northern country, but dynamics falls apart as it moves southeast and the upper low wraps around the top of the surface low. This switches off the upslide and we are strongly rainshadowed in the south.
Could well struggle to get to 5mm spots south of the divide, and now next weeks system looks feeble (mainly westerly). After a bumper April, looks like May could well turn in a bit of a dud at this rate.
Good falls in areas north and west of about Ballarat... looks like the area from about Bendigo to Swan Hill is best placed with this set-up.
Strangely mild for the second half of May with 850Ts in the 5-10C range the next few days. Could well see 20C scattered around the state on multiple days depending on breaks in cloud.