Vic- April 1 - 10 Mild, warm then a major front, possible cut off low

[JasmineStorm]

Just inserting a thread for one big fat early April high pressure system. It’s really hard to look past it, as it looks to dominate for at least 9 Days. There is an initial weak front that clips the coast, giving us a mild weekend with light showers in southern areas before we are stuck with this anti cyclone boredom zone for at least until April 8th. Conditions will be warm and potentially very warm towards the end of the thread.

Models are toying with a potential deep surface low on April 9th or 10th but they lose interest almost every 2nd run at the moment, so we are stuck with this thread in the meantime. Hopefully we can kill it off earlier but it seems unlikely.

[JasmineStorm]

15.7c today after a 3.8c start. Fairly normal April temps for here.... but warming up next week. Some interesting model scenarios for late next weekend but quite early to take too seriously at the moment.

[snowfall]

Had a low of 7.9 here last night. Up to 16.3 today. No further rain here, but the clouds are thickening up. Might be a bit of drizzle overnight or tomorrow morning. Looks like a very warm period coming up later next week, certainly warm for April.

[Geoff]

There's a whole batch of showers currently moving up the lower end of the bay, I wonder how far they'll get?
The coming week looks absolutely glorious. After the recent rain here a sunny mild/warm week will do wonders for the start of the autumn colour season.
GFS getting very excited about next weekend's rain event, and they follow it up with at least two more vigorous lows with some very cold air involved for the following week.

[Macedonian]

My max hasnt gone over 11C for the last 3days and YR.no have 8C predicted for Mt Macedon today.
Minimums have been between 4 and 5.
Currently 6.2C and breezy here. Quite nippy.

[StratoBendigo]

GFS is rather excited about a big rain event for Central Vic in a week's time (April 9). EC not really on-board atm.

[JasmineStorm]

GFS is rather excited about a big rain event for Central Vic in a week's time (April 9). EC not really on-board atm.

Yes SB, GFS keeps modelling it and Access jumped on board with it's last run for Western and parts of central Vic. Basically all models now think a low of sorts will happen next Sunday April 9th but EC keeps the scenario of a high rapidly moving in behind it. I also find it interesting that the monsoon trough is having another dip in the tropics of northern Australia. Cyclone season is still well and truly in play, which always gives the chance of moisture coming down and clashing with some upper polar air, spawning a vicious cyclonic cold core gyre around NSW or Victoria (ECL / Cut off low, Tasman low)

[JasmineStorm]

Low of 4.6c and a top of 15c. Starting to warm up with some sun tomorrow. EC jumping onboard again with a big angry low Sunday/Monday April 9/10 for parts of southern Victoria.

[Geoff]

Had a chuckle to myself when I saw this tonight from Yr Norwegian (GFS).....

upload gif

[Macedonian]

10.1C max here today.

[Tassiedave]

Maximum temperatures in Launceston over the next six days are forecast to be 19,21,20,22,24,25 with no rain forecast till late Saturday. It reached a maximum of 19.7 degrees in Launceston at 3.05 today. Launceston had just 19.4 mm of rain in March, well below average. Average temperature was 24.9 degrees well above average.

[hillybilly]

Maybe time to add "ending with a cracking front" to the thread.

Bit early to know the details, but all the models are showing a strong front for Saturday into Sunday with a possible ECL forming. CMC and EC most keen on heavy rain, while GFS and ACCESS have good falls in southern areas.

Between now and then a few nice days.

[JasmineStorm]

All models, associated ensembles agree on a strong frontal system this Sunday. There is potential of a cut off low but there is still no a common agreement at this stage between the models. Seems like a southern Victorian rainfall event with a south westerly influence. With the bay still very warm, this could be quite productive for eastern and south eastern suburbs.

Not sure, I'm going to see a cloud for a while up here. To help get through the boredom, I just finished a little study on how accurate models have been over the last 21 days. Read on if it is of interest http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... =69&t=2356

[JasmineStorm]

That 00Z EC just run has just piqued my severe weather senses. An eastern Bass Strait cyclonic cut off low for Monday with a 24 hour ceaseless south westerly attack on eastern and south eastern metro along with eastern Victoria. Considering the cold uppers being pushed in, this could do anything if that lines up

P.S and the same run 2 days later has a Cat 4 to 5 cyclone off the Kimberley.

[stevco123]

Looking likely this will be our first proper cold outbreak of the year.

Frequent showers, small hail and maximum temperatures between 12 and 15, with very probable snow on the alps (especially Monday and Tuesday).

Pretty much the usual stuff we get with these setups.

Could and will change somewhat but looking okay for now with constant rainfall upgrades.

Re; those comparisons for the three models; I almost never trust the bureau forecast now for more than 24 hours out. To me it just seems like they always go with a general forecast and always 'play it safe'.

[hillybilly]

Another mild day today, but Progs still generally holding for the weekend. Warm Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold rainy Sunday. Progs dropping snow levels to around 1200m so should see a bit of a cover at places like Lake Mt.

EC dropped the intense low back a bit, but still a decent system. Progs typically holding 20 to 40mm for southern areas with much less in the north (though GFS is much less keen).

[JasmineStorm]

as expected, not a lot going on at the moment. 23.6c yesterday and similar today with a bit of CU floating around. Night's are more consistently cooler with Autumn settling in.

The American models (GFS,Navy and CFS) think this trough followed by the front is a showery southerly blast and that's about it. Access has some reasonable totals with a big ECL off eastern Victoria, EC and CMC a bigger hit on central parts. I think we are going to have to wait until the 72 hour mark to have any confidence of the impact. They all agree that there is a lot of cold air coming up and there won't be much rain north of the divide again I think I'm going to have to wait for the prevailing North Westerly and NW cloud bands from mid May to get anything decent.

[hillybilly]

Turning into yet another warm spell with temperatures staying well up for another three days. Comes after Vics hottest March on record

Thinking FC will get close to 20C next three days. Hoping this autumn flips like last year and we get a fairly normal winter.

Thankfully, this warm spell all comes to an abrupt end on Sunday with a ripper front. EC, CMC and ACCESS all have locally up to 50mm in southern Vic, tending to peak to the east of the bays and then again in Gippsland. Patchy falls in the north - just a mm or two in the northern Mallee with more further south towards the ranges.

[JasmineStorm]

23.7c yesterday, think it might get to mid 20's with all this sun today.

This polar pulse on Sunday is an interesting one....there is a serious batch of cold air above us on Sunday. If there is some good moisture in the mix, this will be worth watching. All depends where this low sets up. Access is certainly starting to get a little more excited.

[stevco123]

Weather station going for 14 maximum this sunday and about 20mm of rain.

Now I'm interested...