Victoria - Indian summer rolls on: March 13 to 19 2017

[Gordon]

It's bizarre how the models are almost tag-teaming. The last few days, EC & GFS have been almost polar opposites for us - what one gives, the other takes. For example, GFS for here yesterday was 25mm plus and Yr No (EC) was just a few mm; now Yr No is 60mm and GFS about 10mm!

[Geoff]

Yesterday Yr Norwegian (EC) had 99mm for us over Monday/Tuesday, today it has 70mm (63mm on Tuesday), so fairly consistent. The others still flip flopping around 10mm-25mm.
I cleaned our gutters out last weekend expecting the 10mm forecast, we got 3.5mm, so I'm not touching them this weekend.
(Edit at 7pm: now down to 56mm, so nearly halved but still substantial)

[JasmineStorm]

Just another cloudless 31c in Kyneton today and with more high's coming in next weekend, the March temp record is well and truly in sight for Victoria and Kyneton.

Now – for Monday to Wednesday. This has the potential for major last minute upgrades and downgrades....... GFS slightly upgraded 00z but well short of EC, CMC and Access still. All models show an immense atmospheric river coming into Victoria on Monday night or 36 hours. The triggers are certainly there, especially the north and west approaching upper troughs coming together over Victoria on Tuesday afternoon. If they combine and create a deepening surface trough over central Victoria, this will be a water bomb

@HB - Based on the BoM's MSLP maps drawn up today for Monday to Wednesday, I tend to agree with you about this having its own thread and the current thread is shortened to tomorrow.

[Macedonian]

Just about perfect late summerish day here. Cloudless , windless, beautiful golden autumnal light.
13C to 24.7C.

Hoping for rain on Monday.

[mick]

I just hope those cockroaches in NSW havent stolen all our rain, I have my suspicions.