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Vic: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13 2017

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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by JasmineStorm »

GFS latest thinks things will be bubbling around Melbourne Saturday PM. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-37.939;145 ... 1/06&m=gfs

Also just did a quick little health check against GFS forecast with stormcast for the upper trough drifting eastward from W.A. Nice and active :)
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by stevco123 »

Bubbling away to the far east i see
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by hillybilly »

GFS, CMC and ACCESS all a bit better on the latest runs with 5 to 15mm for west and central areas. Some spots out west top 25mm. EC not much interested, with just 1mm in Melbourne.
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by StratoBendigo »

GFS now has the rain falling mostly in SW Vic. Probably just a couple of mm here.
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by Geoff »

hillybilly wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2017 6:09 am Could well see runs at record late season highs next week
and the culprit is......

Imagefree upload image
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by hillybilly »

Progs not much changed. Bit of instability today, particularly central areas, with patchy rain then moving into the west late this arvo. Hoping for a surprise storm ;)

Overall progs are maintaining the low a little bit longer for us, but the upslide still shifts rapidly into NSW on Sunday so not a big window for rain.

Hoping for 10mm here, but thinking it could land anywhere in the 2 to 15mm range.

Longer term progs just look unseasonably hot. Bit of a concern that we may well break the Vic March record set just last year.

Geoff, don't think you can simply blame a high for the records. The heat reflects the overall warmth of the atmosphere and that's headed in one direction. The weather patterns just shuffle this heat around :(
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by Geoff »

I was reading recently a report from New Zealand where the poor Kiwis were complaining about their year without a summer.
They've been on.the other side of the Tasman high getting cold weather for months this year.
It seems pretty obvious that if the blocking highs didn't sit there for weeks on end we wouldn't get the hot weather constantly fed down from the north. Remember back in the winter/spring period when the highs seemed to sit in the Bight for long periods giving us long cold spells, which led to many gardens around Victoria were about a month later then normal this year. I think the positioning of the blocking highs is absolutely crucial to the temperatures we get.
Anyway, rain is badly needed this weekend for most of us, so good luck everyone!
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by hillybilly »

2016 was New Zealand's hottest year on record Geoff. Got a friend whose just done the areal glacial survey for NIWA. They are in really bad shape :( Wish it wasn't so... glaciers are magnificent things. There summers was a little cooler than average but they use 1981-2010 which means it was still well up on values from last century.

GFS and ACCESS edging rainfall up on the 6Z run.
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by stevco123 »

This type of setup is more European-like. They get highs that sit parked in the same spot not for 2 weeks but up to 3 months. This is where you here the stories of them having winters without snow and above average temps of up to 15 degrees above average for a month.

The weather systems there seem to be much slower moving due to the large land masses which allows forecasters to accurately predict the weather for days on end, and also giving weks and weeks of stable weather.

The same can be said for low pressure systems which equal to things like so-called polar vortexes.

But down here in the far southern hemisphere our weather is much more volatile as we know and thanks to the large bodies of oceans, we are more likely to get periods of long above rather than below average temps.

Places on the same latitude in the northern hemisphere get winter temps as low as -30 because they have no ocean around them.

One thing is for sure, the seasons have definitely shifted the last 20 years or so.
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by stevco123 »

Tad smoky with an orangy sky a bit thanks to that burnoff yesterday north of here
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by StratoBendigo »

stevco123 wrote: Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:18 am One thing is for sure, the seasons have definitely shifted the last 20 years or so.
Most of our February this year felt like a typical March, and March so far this year has felt like a typical February.
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by JasmineStorm »

Hit 31.7c at 2pm and back to 30.6c with some cloud moving in. DP hovering around 9c, Baro dropped to 1008.

Nice DP of 18c for Melbourne with 25c air temp at 2.50pm. If the sun is out down there , there might be some nice bubbling clouds around the urban jungle, especially northern burbs.
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by Didjman »

Looks like a convergence line just south of here. Getting dark to SSW and some beautiful Pileus (32C/26C 1006.8)
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by JasmineStorm »

Didjman wrote: Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:24 pm Looks like a convergence line just south of here. Getting dark to SSW and some beautiful Pileus (32C/26C 1006.8)
Peter
Spot on Peter, lovely little convergence line around the dividing range. Moving ESE. Getting darker here now.
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by tonycynic »

Thunder is here, must be time for a beer.
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by Geoff »

tonycynic wrote: Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:14 pm Thunder is here
Thought I heard a rumble, little red cell on the radar near Lilydale.
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by JasmineStorm »

Just thought I would add some official documentation for the thread ;)
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by JasmineStorm »

North and Eastern burbs might get some CG's and anvil crawlers in the next hour or so from a couple of multi cell clusters coming off the ranges :lighting:
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by mick »

I was skywatching and seen an anvil, then lost it in the murk.
Very acticve sky.
Came home to see impressive red core on radar.
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Re: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Thunderstorm warning out now.
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