Vic: Trough with showers and perhaps a storm: March 11-13 2017

[hillybilly]

Messy change showing up in the progs for the coming weekend with a broad surface trough supported aloft with a rather stronger upper trough. Rainfall totals are a bit mixed and models jumpy, but latest runs show pretty extensive falls of 5mm+. EC rather more optimistic and showing falls in the 10-20mm range around central Vic.

Hopefully a break from the long grinding dry pattern that's dominated the last month in most areas.

[StratoBendigo]

Yes, hoping for something. We missed out badly last weekend (32mm just 10 km away). Perhaps 10mm at best I reckon here. Then more unrelenting heat after that. Next week looks awful on 18Z GFS.

Reminds me of March 2008, but at least the weather ended up mostly rather cold from April to August that year.

[hillybilly]

So EC, GFS and ACCESS all lost interest with the 0Z runs, but now come back on the 12Z run Decent low showing up across all the models with a decent low for us. Could bring ok totals.

Hopefully won't downgrade this arvo..

[Geoff]

EC has got 39mm for us on Sunday (it had about 3mm yesterday), so still volatile changes each run but moving in the right direction now.

[JasmineStorm]

They are certainly jumpy.....maybe the next run is zilch again but I always get cautiously optimistic when an ex cyclone's moisture drift's down south. Still scenario differences between the big models though.

EC's run this morning has a wrap around southerly scenario that pumps in a tonne of moisture from the Tasman and attacks Melbourne from Sunday evening with the outer north eastern suburbs and urban fringe coping around 120 mm within 24 hours. Melbourne 60 mm+

[StratoBendigo]

^^ Wildly over-the-top and ain't going to happen.

Nice little cut-off in Bass Strait for 17th March though according to EC.

[Gordon]

A remarkable degree of model confusion for a setup for only a few days out; and you could hear BOM's Dean Stewart hedging his bets this morning on ABC radio.

It will be interesting to see how BOM draw their new 4 day chart in a couple of hours' time, as this will include the all-important Sunday synoptics.

Edit: Sunday looks good on the 4 day with a half decent surface low centred over Victoria.

[JasmineStorm]

Yes Gordon, Certainly looks good on the BoM map. I'm still on the fence until things line up a bit more across more models.

I thought I'd have a little fun and just do a comparison to a past event against todays BoM map. That big low in the centre of OZ in 2011 was ex TC Yasi and ex TC Anthony was also around in the mix. It's refreshing to be able to do a post talking about potential rain

[StratoBendigo]

00Z GFS delays things a bit and keeps things really hot until Sunday evening. Good chance of storms with the change then too.

[chillout]

been watching this one for a few days now as we are going camping at the beach, never seen th models chop and change as much. 60mm predicted for melb on EC 12 hrs ago now 0!

[hillybilly]

Not the latest model runs. First little upper trough comes ashore near Mt Gambier with a low. This brings good falls out west, but fades on Sunday as the second upper trough in the bight heads for NSW. Rain and showers basically collapse as a result over us (central and eastern Vic). Having two system interfering with each other is why this set up is so volatile on the progs.

Then... the upper low forms another big block for another ten days Could well see runs at record late season highs next week

Hoping to see the models switch back to the wetter version.

[JasmineStorm]

The models are more closely aligned but unfortunately I don’t currently see widespread heavy rain on the latest runs. EC is definitely now taking the surface low north and into NSW, eliminating a proper rainfall event. At the moment it seems like a patchy rain merry go round from late Saturday until early Monday. If surface temps can into the mid 20’s Sunday on the eastern side of that upper trough, it will start to rumble IMO. Freezing levels will be quite low in northern and western Victoria and precip water is going to be around 25 to 35mm. There could be some angry ice throwing multi cell clusters if it lines up in areas that can get a nice warm earth surface to assist

[stevco123]

The models are more closely aligned but unfortunately I don’t currently see widespread heavy rain on the latest runs. EC is definitely now taking the surface low north and into NSW, eliminating a proper rainfall event. At the moment it seems like a patchy rain merry go round from late Saturday until early Monday. If surface temps can into the mid 20’s Sunday on the eastern side of that upper trough, it will start to rumble IMO. Freezing levels will be quite low in northern and western Victoria and precip water is going to be around 25 to 35mm. There could be some angry ice throwing multi cell clusters if it lines up in areas that can get a nice warm earth surface to assist

In other words, just your typical muggy, mostly dry Sunday with a temperature range of about 20 for a minimum and 22 for a maximum, followed by some light spitting about 5 to 6pm which is not worth the energy it is wasting.

Borriiinnggg.. I can just picture it in my head now.

[Skywalker]

Yep, we will get bugger all, and that's both in the western desert & down on the island.

[Tassiedave]

Launceston's average temperature through the first 10 days of March is 26.5 degrees which is four degrees above March average. It reached 24.9 today. Strahan on the West Coast the highest in Tas today with 27.9 degrees. 0 mm of rain so far in March for Launceston. It looked promising at one stage but I'm not convinced there will be much rain at all this weekend. Our driest March on record was 2.6 mm in 1994. Warm next week. Hobart forecast to be 28 degrees Tuesday to Thursday.

[Sean]

Return of the brown down this way, after having some green through feb (very rare).

I really, really want to resist the urge to whine, but lord almighty I'm bored TO DEATH of this weather. It's like Darwin during the dry season atm. Just day after day after bloody day of dry sunshine. Don't get me wrong, I like a good blue sky and warm spell, but sheesh. I'm losing track of date and time.

I'm on this boat:

[hillybilly]

Progs seem to have settled on somewhere between 2 and 10mm for most areas. Bit better out west which gets the secondary upper trough.

Hoping for enough to water the garden... bit over running the sprinklers.

I really, really want to resist the urge to whine, but lord almighty I'm bored TO DEATH of this weather.

Me too. Way over this, and another week or two of it to come

[JasmineStorm]

@Stevco – I think the BoM adjusted Melbourne’s Sunday forecast based off your 'in other words' forecast yesterday

IMO it still looks like Western and Northern Victoria are the best chances for storms on Sunday. Based on the current big models, if I was chasing storms I’d be planning for the Grampians or the Northern country.

I’m starting to prepare the sandbags after EC this morning gave me 1.2mm for the thread for early Sunday. I need to somehow get under a storm cell Sunday afternoon to have any hope of settling the dust.

[stevco123]

My bet is for 2mm to 6mm on Saturday night between 9pm and 2am. Fine for all of Sunday with maybe (MAYBE) a shower. Storm chance is near zero in my books for Melbourne. Cloudy morning plus somewhat cloudy afternoon will hinder storm development.

High 20s and low 30s to continue for the next 10 days.

Followed by record cold winter with snow in the suburbs like in 1951

Ok, that last bit is more of a fantasy than forecast, but you never know.

[Macedonian]

Looks like im going to be watering all LWE