Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

Vic - Feb 22 to Mar 10 2017 - Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by JasmineStorm »

Yes HB, I remember the Commonwealth games in March 2006 received a nice old roasting.

Feels like it’s going to be hot today. Just looked at the Sat Pic - Vic is cloud free at 10.40am. Another day of evaporation on my dams :(

I’m starting to see a terrestrial heat bomb emerging in W.A and EC is modelling something quite interesting associated with this at the moment.
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... f=3&t=2345
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by JasmineStorm »

Max of 32.9c today, same again tomorrow. BoM now have an El Niño watch in place. I hope we don't have another one of those anytime soon but it's starting to look like it
W
WeatherViewer
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 387
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:57 pm
Location: Truganina

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by WeatherViewer »

My PWS hit 36.0C this afternoon.
I wasn't at home to feel the conditions in the outer burbs in Tarneit. Quite a few local PWS reflected a similar temp, pretty hot. Another one lined up tomorrow!
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by hillybilly »

28C in FC yesterday. Looks like a repeat today.

Just stuck in a pattern rut. Shame this is stable rather (NSW eastern parts is getting the opposite with lots of showers and storms).

Hard to see a proper change in the pattern ATM. Maybe in about 10 days. Will cool a little next few days and a bit more cloud, but then warm up again next week. Might be the odd shower around from late Thursday (but still more likely than not dry). Nice weather, but geez it's boring (and a tad warm) and just slowly bakes things off. Perhaps lucky we avoided this in January or February (when temps would have been more like 40C than low/mid 30s).
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by stevco123 »

BORING is the key word definitely.

Nothing unusual if you ask me, especially since summer proper has shifted the last 20 years to being late January to early March.

Autumn doesn't technically start until the equinox on the 21st, and I bet it will cool down a fair bit around that time.

Until this pattern breaks, enjoy the warm, sunny days and cool (but not cold) nights.

This is perfect weather if you ask me. The days start coolish, get warm for a few hours, only to cool down again by sunset. I also love it because the sun hasn't got THAT intensity like it does in late jan/early feb.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
M
Macedonian
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2323
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:44 pm
Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by Macedonian »

JasmineStorm wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2017 6:36 pm Max of 32.9c today, same again tomorrow. BoM now have an El Niño watch in place. I hope we don't have another one of those anytime soon but it's starting to look like it
Wow JS. 32.9c. I only made it to 26.5C.
Im high on the south facing slope of Mt Macedon and the intensity of the sun is dwindling rapidly.
I was in Kyneton on sunday and the heat and dry was a shock. Its still green at my place.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by JasmineStorm »

@Stevco & HillyBilly - Yes! so so so Boring.

@WeatherViewer - You are definitely a chance for mid 30's again if the southerly doesn't spoil the party.

@Macedonian – You definitely get the benefits of the 800m+ elevation. Once you get on this side of the range even over 500m, it gets significantly hotter until winter of course ;) This current view I've attached from the Kyneton airport looking towards Mt Macedon best sums up how dry it is now, which you saw first hand on the weekend. Not a blade of green.

21mm for Feb and still sitting on 52mm for the year (BoM gauge here is 44mm for the year). About 40% less than the mean.

Still quite a few hot days left but I’m almost prepared to call Autumn for March 13th based on EC, GFS and CFS. If they keep lining up in the next few days I'm calling it. There will be definitely Autumn warmth towards the end of March but I think this potential cold snap and possible cut off low will knock summer on the head. Long term models certainly have a warm Autumn still.
Attachments
Kyneton airport March 1st.jpg
Kyneton airport March 1st.jpg (64.8 KiB) Viewed 6663 times
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by Gordon »

Not a bad Feb for us, at the nearest BOM station in Ballarat, nightly minimums about 1 C cooler and day maximums just slightly cooler.

58 mm of rain a bit above our 20 year average of 51.3 mm; ytd sitting on 98 mm vs 105 mm average. Still quite green somehow - I guess the longer shadows and shorter daylight hours are starting to help.
M
Macedonian
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2323
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:44 pm
Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by Macedonian »

I made it to 27.4C today but its falling now.
That is about 9C above av for march
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by JasmineStorm »

Max of 32.4c today. Same again tomorrow.

I see the mean maximum Victorian 2016/17 summer was 1.1c above average.
G
Geoff
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2538
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:46 pm
Location: Olinda VIC (470m ASL)

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by Geoff »

JasmineStorm wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:15 pm I see the mean maximum Victorian 2016/17 summer was 1.1c above average.
It would be interesting to see the figures for north of the ranges versus south. It's felt like the most moderate summer here I can recall, and I'm working out in it every day.
AWF Rainfall Details - Monthly rainfall stats. Please post your totals here at the end of each month, thank you
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... &start=180
G
Gordon
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by Gordon »

Geoff wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:48 pm It would be interesting to see the figures for north of the ranges versus south. It's felt like the most moderate summer here I can recall, and I'm working out in it every day.
Same here Geoff; or in our case, at least the mildest summer for a while. I think the lack of extreme heat and sequences of hot days have created that impression. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-27/m ... ge/8306304

I haven't been able to get the kids in the pool since school went back - even when we get a hot day, they complain the water is too cold! I should devise a pool index (pool swimming days) to compare the intensity of different summers :).

Perhaps on a more 'measurable' / objective note, summer 2016/17 in Victoria must have been one of the less active summers for fires for a while?
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by hillybilly »

27C here today. Thinking a degree or two cooler tomorrow, then a touch of drizzle Friday and Saturday morning. Few shower out east. GFS and EC showing a proper change in about seven days.

Summer just passed was the coolest for Vic in for nearly five years, but still nearly 1C above average. I find people make pretty bad thermometers as we get confused by seasonal and diurnal cycles.

Will crunch the numbers in a few days, but expect we had the mildest fire season in Vic since 2011/12 using FFDI.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#t ... ave_yr%3D0

Locally, I reckon this has been our nicest summer since moving here. Regular rain, couple of cracking storms, not really hot days and no spikes in fire weather. Just over 300mm. Kind of summer you might expect on the NSW north coast :D (shame we don't have a beach).
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by stevco123 »

Some very sydney-like weather down here at the moment. Some heavy dew starting to form on cars and quite humid too.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
T
Tassiedave
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1098
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by Tassiedave »

Maximum of 30.9 degrees in Launceston today. It is currently 22.9 degrees. The maximum in Tasmania today was Bushy Park with 32 degrees. Could be unsettled tomorrow afternoon with some showers, after that a very settled pattern, I can't see maximum temperatures in Launceston falling below 24 degrees for the next 10 days. Launceston received only 11mm of rain in February.
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by stevco123 »

Pwoah, what a peasouper this morning. Thick fog with visibility down to about 200 metres. First proper fog of 2017
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
D
Dane
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1659
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by Dane »

As Stevco said very thick fog around here this morning, bit unusual for so early in the year.
User avatar
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
Reactions:
Posts: 4964
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by hillybilly »

Sat here above the fog. Currently a mild 16C. Expecting the fog will drift up the hill in the next hour or two.

Two or three milder days with a little early drizzle or fog before the warmth returns for all of next week. We get a proper change around Friday (but it doesn't look very wet :x ). There is a weak upper trough to our northwest from around Sunday so should be a bit of convection and the odd shower.
M
Macedonian
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2323
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:44 pm
Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by Macedonian »

hillybilly wrote: Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:55 pm 27C here today. Thinking a degree or two cooler tomorrow, then a touch of drizzle Friday and Saturday morning. Few shower out east. GFS and EC showing a proper change in about seven days.

Summer just passed was the coolest for Vic in for nearly five years, but still nearly 1C above average. I find people make pretty bad thermometers as we get confused by seasonal and diurnal cycles.

Will crunch the numbers in a few days, but expect we had the mildest fire season in Vic since 2011/12 using FFDI.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#t ... ave_yr%3D0

Locally, I reckon this has been our nicest summer since moving here. Regular rain, couple of cracking storms, not really hot days and no spikes in fire weather. Just over 300mm. Kind of summer you might expect on the NSW north coast :D (shame we don't have a beach).
The CH2 weatherman said that melbs highest temp this summer (37.8C) was the lowest highest temp for any summer since 2002.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
s
stevco123
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl

Re: Feb 22 to Mar 2 Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

Post by stevco123 »

Just got to work here in Scoresby and can report no fog AT ALL from about Dandenong northwards. In fact visibility is more than a few kilometres and i can even see patches of blue sky. Going by hillybilly's observations from Mount Dandenong, the fog is shallow in the outer east.
But southern suburbs are copping it this morning. I suppose that's what the high humidity and heavy dew i reported last night equated to this morning.

BoM on radio suggesting fog will linger until 10 or 11am and even longer in coastal areas and bayside suburbs with a repeat tomorrow morning.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Locked