Just getting a thread going for this week. Cool to mild start, then warm and breezy Wednesday elevating fire danger, with a weak change skirting the coast. Then warm again Thursday and Friday before a stronger change. Next weekend will see a strong south westerly influence, dropping temperatures well below average. Rainfall totals south of the divide could be around 10mm, North will be lucky to get 1mm at this stage. Thunderstorms are unlikely to occur in the thread.
Also, next week is looking interesting on the models .
Low level cloud starting to break up here. Around 14c. Boring old weather day.
This time last year I had 55mm year to date in the middle of a big El Nino, interesting I’m only on 47.8mm at the moment and it’s neutral. On the 100 year average, I’d expect to be close to 80mm. Looking at the new monsoon version 4 set up and the southern fronts that are commencing to push further north on the models for the next 10 days, I have a feeling that summer could be in with a chance of finishing with something quite big!
Certainly is a chilly one for this time of year. This is definitely Autumn type conditions.
I can't believe how boring & non-eventful this summer has been, and I have at least 6 months of western suburban winter boredom coming up.
God help me.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
I've been saying for a while that the worst of the summer heat is over stevco123, there will still be the odd hottish day but generally cooling down now I reckon.
Everything around here is green and lush, it's quite chilly out there in the breeze and we've got a total fire ban today.....
Chilly??? Its 3.5C where i work in Macedon and Trentham had an overnight low of O.7C
They would almost certainly have had a frost.
I was above the cold at home, 12C on Mount Macedon. Ab Fab morning for sure.
How did you go Gordon?
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
Whats going on with TFB announcements? nothing on news, radio, forecast that I seen.
I worked the bees after I waited to hear radio news. Was only for 10 min in suburbs, but Ive
never lit a fire on a TFB day before so am very upset with myself.
Does anyone know if things have changed re announcements?
This is the second cool day in melb thats been a TFB and no one knows about it.
I have never in my life not heard a TFB announced on the radio news every hour.
Yes Mick...TFB don't get much of a mention these days. Stevco mentioned this in another thread as well. The BoM give a fire weather warning but the TFB announcement is from the CFA and Vic emergency.
A nice brisk 4.1c to start the day here, a lovely heavy dew dropped .2mm in the gauge. Up to 27c now with a 30 to 50 km/h gusty north westerly and humidity in the 20’s. Took 28 CFA vehicles to contain a fire near here (Glenlyon) in the last hour or so . Hopefully that wind doesn’t get any stronger this afternoon.
I won’t speak for south of the divide but summer doesn’t seem to over north of the divide. I’ve been fooled before by cold snaps in Feb, similar to the one coming up. GFS thinks at least another 6 days over 30 from Feb 21st to Mar 2nd on the last run north of the divide, with not a lot of rain involved. So I'm sitting on the fence with the Autumn topic, unless the models downgrade.
Agree 100% with the TFB topic. Fire weather on BoM site states a warning for the Wimmera only.
Certainly very p**sed off about the new way they mention total fire bans.
Hopefully it is not too long before the media picks it up, but i sincerely hope it not picked up due to a negative event where people weren't informed correctly.
Out of everyone I have spoken to about the Emergency VIC site, only 3 out of about 20 people had heard of it, and 2 of those had deleted it off their phones as they were sick of the sluggish response of the system.
Why couldn't BoM just continue listing the TFBs on their warnings page. They have cut back on so much the last few years
Macedonian wrote:Chilly??? Its 3.5C where i work in Macedon and Trentham had an overnight low of O.7C
They would almost certainly have had a frost.
I was above the cold at home, 12C on Mount Macedon. Ab Fab morning for sure.
How did you go Gordon?
Sorry, having trouble reaching the site Macedonian (anyone else?) Down to 5 C earlier and regretted letting the fire go out overnight!
Just reached 26C but certainly one of the more benign TFB days we've had here, as was the last one. I assume it is/ was worse elsewhere in the Central District today?
Gordon wrote:
Sorry, having trouble reaching the site Macedonian (anyone else?)
Yes me too. Seems to take an eternity to load recently, if at all. I'm sure Jake is onto it.
As I mentioned earlier, it was the most un-TFB day you could imagine here, well apart from the one a month back when it was cool damp and overcast all day, perhaps they need to separate us wetter southern areas from the drier northern ones?
mick wrote:Whats going on with TFB announcements? nothing on news, radio, forecast that I seen.
I worked the bees after I waited to hear radio news. Was only for 10 min in suburbs, but Ive
never lit a fire on a TFB day before so am very upset with myself.
Does anyone know if things have changed re announcements?
This is the second cool day in melb thats been a TFB and no one knows about it.
I have never in my life not heard a TFB announced on the radio news every hour.
Mick do you mean you lit your smoke puffer for your bee hive?
Ive just started keeping bees at work and tge first time i opened the box i set the smoke puffer down on the ground without thinking and it started a fire in the leaf litter straight away. just by contact. They are dangerous!
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
Topped at 30.2c around 5pm from a low of 4.1c . Looked through my records and the temp range of 26.1c is the 2nd largest I've had in a day on my PWS. Largest range was 26.7 in January 2014 with a 11.4c to 38.1c
@geoff, totally agree on the district being seperated. We have a drier and warmer climate here in summer than south of the divide. I'd say the only reason today was a TFB for central was because of the northern and western side of the Macedon Ranges.
@hawker, I think we might get that big southerly pushing through around 11.... then it's back to a northerly by lunchtime tomorrow again. Another day around 30 coming up.....
Hmmm, this weekend is certainly like a nice little "cold snap".
Weather station predicting 17 degrees for Saturday and 16 for Sunday, with the rainfall upped a bit, and the chance of wintery hail.
Ofcourse, we all know cold air means dry air,but the plus side is that the bay is warm thanks to summer so rainfall in the eastern suburbs should be okay (sorry western suburbia)
Nice forecast Stevco. Certainly looks like it will be brisk on the weekend. Bay is around 21c at the moment, and freezing levels will be around 1800m both days, so it will be interesting to see what happens. EC, GFS, CMC and Access are giving me about 1mm for the next couple of weeks
The upper westerlies in the tropics are still smashing the monsoon lows, preventing cyclone development and now they're cutting off the atmospheric river into SE and eastern Australia. This cyclone season for Australia is becoming unprecedented with a staggering disappearance of tropical cyclonic activity. To me, this weather pattern originating from the tropics is the direct cause of low thunderstorm activity in Victoria for the last year or so. The only named cyclone this season was Yvette and its depression came through Victoria, assisting the famous December 29th storm event.