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Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by typhoon29 »

tipped out 40mm this morning.
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by WeatherViewer »

I recorded 29.2mm here in Tarneit, the garden is happy about that.

On another note what the heck is going on with Perth's Summer? Check the latest forecast http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/perth.shtml

Sydney/NSW sizzling like never before and Perth quite the opposite, weird weather!
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by occluded »

Local AWS says 30mm, manual gauge has 27mm.

I, and the garden, will gladly take that thanks.
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by Didjman »

16.5mm for Kilmore. Better than nothing!
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by Tassiedave »

Adelaide is forecast to be 41,39,39 Wednesday to Friday and Mildura 40,43,42 whilst Melbourne is 32,34,27. What is enabling Melbourne to escape the heat?
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by hillybilly »

Finished on 60mm. Almost perfect set up for us - sustained unstable NWly flow bringing down waves of showers/storms which build as they run along the front face of the Dandenongs. We almost always do really well in those set-ups. Cold day today - our post 9am max was just 11C :o We do get the occasional cold day in summer so not a record but certainly a shock.
Maybe the hottest spell of the summer coming up for north of the divide from Wednesday to Saturday. That 15mm I just had will be gone by Wednesday night.
Yep, hot if your north of the divide in particular. South will be largely spared. The airmass with the hottest day down here (Thursday) is very moist which will cap temperatures (precipitable water values likely to be in the 40-50mm range).

Shame you didn't get more rainfall. This system was one of the better ones, but unfortunately a few areas missed a bit.
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by WeatherViewer »

Tassiedave wrote:Adelaide is forecast to be 41,39,39 Wednesday to Friday and Mildura 40,43,42 whilst Melbourne is 32,34,27. What is enabling Melbourne to escape the heat?
I don't have a real answer there Tassiedave, Melbourne and surrounds have dodged some really hot air masses this Summer. We have gotten off lightghy to say the least, not sure what's been keeping the extreme heat away though, seems Melbourne has hand balled it off to Sydney this year.

I hope I haven't spoken to too soon!
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by stevco123 »

In relation to the Dandenongs, i really can't figure out why the AWS was moved from Mount Dandenong proper to Ferny Creek. It doesn't give a true temperature, rain nor wind measurement of what it's like at the top.

Hillybilly says it was 11 at his house today, which is true i don't doubt, but Ferny Creek had a max of almost 15, similar to some much lower suburbs. This is consistently the case and it's frustrating.
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by Blackie »

Gordon wrote:
Blackie wrote:Just on 43mm here. Thanks for the excellent analysis of this event by JS,HB and others.
Blackie was that at Mansfield or Elwood?
That was Elwood, Gordon. We got only 18mm in Mansfield which was less than expected though year to date there is just over 100mm already :)
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by hillybilly »

In relation to the Dandenongs, i really can't figure out why the AWS was moved from Mount Dandenong proper to Ferny Creek. It doesn't give a true temperature, rain nor wind measurement of what it's like at the top.

Hillybilly says it was 11 at his house today, which is true i don't doubt, but Ferny Creek had a max of almost 15, similar to some much lower suburbs. This is consistently the case and it's frustrating.
Telstra sold the land. It was a ~20 acre block which held multiple dishes and comms towers. They dismantled the dishes some time back (replaced by satellite) and then sold off the land in three blocks. I actually bought one :D

I think the temperature after 9am peaks around 12.5C at the AWS which is a degree above what I recorded so pretty consistent. My AWS location is very cool - top of the biggest hill in the area on a gentle south facing slope. The AWS is about 50m lower and on a north facing slope. Our rainfall is pretty similar - we often get more in NW'ly flow but, less when its from most other directions - the AWS is probably about 40mm wetter average acorss the year.

It's really hard to get representative winds and temperatures when the topography goes from 100m to 600m over 3km. Makes for some strange weather - I'm yet to record a subzero temperature at the top of our block, but the lower parts (just ~20m lower) can see frost that will last for days and freeze our pond to a cm or so.
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by hillybilly »

Adelaide is forecast to be 41,39,39 Wednesday to Friday and Mildura 40,43,42 whilst Melbourne is 32,34,27. What is enabling Melbourne to escape the heat?
Uppers are a touch cooler in the south and humidity higher. Also, the south will see a weak cooler change some time during the day.

Image

This pattern has repeated most of the summer, and was broadly predicted in advance. The ability to pick the pattern tells you that it is being driven by
ocean patterns (mainly). We've had an almost permanent upper high over NSW this summer which has the effect of pushing cloud from the Indian Ocean over southeast Australia and baking the inland eastern states.

Image
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by stevco123 »

Thanks for thorough explanation there Hillybilly. I always wondered why they had moved the site.

Geez, that map showing "chance of" has pretty much been spot on!
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Re: Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

Post by hillybilly »

Geez, that map showing "chance of" has pretty much been spot on!
Yep. This past year has seen the best seasonal outlooks on record. Having such a strong forcing out of the Indian Ocean has made forecasting that much easier/better.
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