Sunday, 5th of Feb - Tropical influence?

[Harley34]

The upcoming Sunday looks good for some rainfall at the moment. The bom has gone conservative. Looks like a monsoonal influence after lots of moisture sitting back in the NW corner of W.A. Any thoughts? What are the other models saying?

[StratoBendigo]

Potential for 30-40mm here according to GFS and ensemble forecast. EC update this morning is one to watch too.

[StratoBendigo]

EC concurs. Quite a lot of convergence in the forecast models.

One big variable will be the positioning of the trough - i.e. To the North or South of us. Right now we're a bulls-eye.

[JasmineStorm]

Yes SB, positioning of the trough is the big question.

This is what I just saw -

All latest model runs recognise the existence of a trough, which is good news. Where ever its drops, it seems like some good falls. Storms at the moment look north of the divide but may dip south.

- GFS has the atmospheric river containing a big flow of 50 to 60mm precipitable water north of the divide spearing into the ALPs.
- CMC is similar to GFS.
- Access more widespread but heaviest on the ALPs like GFS.
- CFS is north of the divide and less falls.
- NavGem both side of the divide, good falls.
- Jane Bunn model, North and south of the divide and moderate falls. Less in the South West.
- EC, on and north of the divide, good falls. A lot less rain south than others.

Favourite model run of the day goes to CMC – very low confidence but it’s certainly an entertainer the old CMC http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=au&dpdt=

[JasmineStorm]

Last GFS certainly showing some instability and cape for storms in central areas including Melbourne on Sunday afternoon.

[StratoBendigo]

Upgrade from EC for us. Suggesting 45mm over Sunday - Monday. Starting to get a bit excited about this one.

[JasmineStorm]

Access also just upgraded in half of Vic and gave S.A a bit of downgrade for once. The position of the trough keeps wiggling as you would expect but it's certainly going to be one of those loitering upper troughs that taps into a tropical fire hydrant.

[StratoBendigo]

Still looking good for 25mm+

Some of the rivers around Northam in WA are now running at minor flood level which is astonishing for this time of year. They've had 130mm in the past 3 days.

[JasmineStorm]

All models has the upper trough virtually stalling from Sunday to Tuesday. At the moment it seems to be a showery and maybe Stormy Sunday and then heavier rain Monday into Tuesday. Need a few more runs to get a true picture of locations but with the moisture available it looks like a solid system.

[Harley34]

Looking wet, Jas and hope it delivers. If it stalls, we should definitely be in for an inch. Cloud cover might be an issue for storm development, so hope for pockets of clear air too...

[Gordon]

'Possible heavy falls' showing up in a few of the BOM forecasts for Monday. Promising... Not like BOM to get excited like that 5 days out.

[Sean]

'Possible heavy falls' showing up in a few of the BOM forecasts for Monday. Promising... Not like BOM to get excited like that 5 days out.

Was surprised to see "rain" in the forecast, like the actual word "rain". Not drizzle, not showers, not rain easing, just "rain"

Not sure what happened to that heat, though. Been mild and dreary looking for days now, hasn't even felt like it got close to 38, um, 36, no, 34, lol. Suppose that's a good thing, but I do love a hot day or two.

[Geoff]

Finely balanced this one. Could end up with 5mm or 50mm depending on the position of the trough. Most models seem to be pushing it slightly to the north of central Vic tonight, keen to see a few more runs yet.

[hillybilly]

Progs are frustrating. Big falls just to the north of us and zilch just to the south. Sitting in between.

You hope to get something in the 15 to 30mm range based on that, but just not entirely confident. Guess the big miss by 100km in early January is too recent

[Geoff]

Models looking better this morning, more widespread rain and slightly further south now.
GFS has good follow up systems for later in the week too.

[Sean]

Really hoping this pulls off. It's looking pretty dry.

[hillybilly]

Hard to keep up with the progs.GFS back on for most of Vic on the latest run,with the ensemble run similar.

ACCESS which was really keen has dropped off for areas south of the divide. CMC has heavy falls including for central Vic. Now waiting to see the new EC which has been jumping (0Z run is ok).

We do need this one with things steadily drying now.

[JasmineStorm]

I don't think we will really know where the heaviest of the rain is going to fall until late tomorrow. Plenty of changes daily on the models. BoM's unusual large rainfall totals in their forecasts are interesting as Access-G doesn't totally agree with the official forecasts presently. Maybe the new Access-S running parallel in the background is giving them some extra info we can't see or they are about to downgrade tonight.

Also, interesting set up next week. Looks like the inland furnace is at full throttle in the middle of next week. http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 511#p98511

[Dane]

Bom have downgraded the Rain for Melbourne.
Only going for 2 to 6mm's on Sunday and 0 to 5mm's on Monday.
Only predicting 0 to 1mm on Monday for my area Cranbourne.

[tonycynic]

Looks like it's all off.. Yarra Glen went from upto 35mm to 11mm, expecting it to fade away. Bugger.