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Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

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Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by JasmineStorm »

Thought I would just get a new thread going for next week. This one could be anything at the moment, Monday and Tuesday is very warm to hot with a dry southerly change moving through during the day. From there, models are not agreeing on a scenario for later in the week but there will certainly be moisture involved to some degree. EC and NavGem is currently thinking 20 to 50mm across a wide area of Vic on Friday, Access has it hitting S.A and moving north of Vic, GFS and CMC think it will be more a hit and miss stormy trough.

Here are a couple of examples on the latest runs for this Friday - Let the downgrades and upgrades begin :)

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=au&dpdt=
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=225
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by JasmineStorm »

Nice summery day coming up tomorrow before a hot one on Tuesday. High 30's to low 40's for a good part of the state with moderate northerlies on Tuesday. Looks like a fire ban for at least half the state as this stage.

Models are now coming more into line for a rain bearing low on Thursday / Friday with all the big ones thinking it's going to be wet somewhere. Lots of moisture being tapped into, so if the conditions are right it could go biggish. Wobbling with the models on the locations of the heaviest rain but GFS just upgraded Southern Vic on the last run.

http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html? ... :null:0#sc
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by hillybilly »

Latest batch of progs in pretty good agreement. Warm today, hot tomorrow, then gets interesting. First a weak rainband on Wednesday which will slowly weaken as it moves north. Should get a few mms in the south.

Then trough deepening over us Thursday with decent feed of tropical moisture. This slowly develops into a low that ends in the Tasman Sea. Totals a bit uncertain, but mainly in the range of 10 to 25mm.

Another system around Tuesday next week with another feed of tropical moisture.
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by stevco123 »

Still can't see a 38 degree day tomorrow. I'm sticking to my guns and saying 31-34.

Ofcourse if you are very muc inland, it will be an oven again.
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by I_Love_Storms »

Latest GFS ridiculous for SA. Precipitable water values about 50mm for 5 days in a row
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by JasmineStorm »

Classic summer set up for today into tomorrow. Ground zero for the terrestrial heat bomb tomorrow looks like half way between Broken Hill and Mildura at around 46c, so the moderate NW wind will feel like a hair dryer in your face with the low humidity on top of that. I’ve only had 9.6mm for January here, so the BoM’s forest fuel dryness factor tomorrow will be around 8 to 9 out of 10 , which isn’t ideal (nearly 10 near Bendigo).

Late Thursday into Friday is still wobbling around on the models. Looks like some big storms in S.A and northern Victoria again. Next Monday’s moisture levels are crazy for Victoria on the last GFS run…..and there will be a front moving up from the south. If something lines up and is triggered, it will be a biblical storm event but currently it’s not totally lining up……yet ;)
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by StratoBendigo »

JasmineStorm wrote:Classic summer set up for today into tomorrow. Ground zero for the terrestrial heat bomb tomorrow looks like half way between Broken Hill and Mildura at around 46c, so the moderate NW wind will feel like a hair dryer in your face with the low humidity on top of that. I’ve only had 9.6mm for January here, so the BoM’s forest fuel dryness factor tomorrow will be around 8 to 9 out of 10 , which isn’t ideal (nearly 10 near Bendigo).

Late Thursday into Friday is still wobbling around on the models. Looks like some big storms in S.A and northern Victoria again. Next Monday’s moisture levels are crazy for Victoria on the last GFS run…..and there will be a front moving up from the south. If something lines up and is triggered, it will be a biblical storm event but currently it’s not totally lining up……yet ;)
Things are fairly dry here, even after 20mm of rain last week. Although it's not completely dry (still mostly green grass in local gullies and in some undergrowth) - not bad for mid-January.

I think we'll only get a few mm this week. Most of the rain looks to be North or South of us according to the models.

Meanwhile in Tennant Creek: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-16/s ... ek/8184796 :spider: :spider:
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low, Stormy finish

Post by JasmineStorm »

Just hit 33c before, nice gentle NWesterly breeze. Definitely high’s 30 here tomorrow….fire weather warnings in 3 districts.

Models are very jumpy from Thursday to Friday. A rather large change with GFS, between the last 2 runs. I’m sitting on the fence past tomorrow at this stage.

Next Monday and Tuesday might be show time if you like several waves of volcanic summer time multicell clusters. The moisture levels modelled on GFS for the last run across all of Victoria are what you would normally see with a monsoonal burst in the tropics (50 to 60mm precip water over both days). If this lines up with a slow lingering trough and then a frontal system from the roaring 40’s, put on your extreme weather seat belt and helmet early next week :)

http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html? ... :null:0#sc
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by StratoBendigo »

A bit of an upgrade this evening. It would be great if it comes off and given the moisture streaming down, they might be onto something.

Incidentally, it's been 6 years since the monster floods in Northern Vic. I'll never forget the 164mm we got in one week. Crazy days.
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by stevco123 »

StratoBendigo wrote:A bit of an upgrade this evening. It would be great if it comes off and given the moisture streaming down, they might be onto something.

Incidentally, it's been 6 years since the monster floods in Northern Vic. I'll never forget the 164mm we got in one week. Crazy days.
Try 200mm in an hour in parts of Melbourne the same year only a couple weeks later.

We all hate disasters but it's what makes weather watching impressive.
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by Sean »

stevco123 wrote:
StratoBendigo wrote:A bit of an upgrade this evening. It would be great if it comes off and given the moisture streaming down, they might be onto something.

Incidentally, it's been 6 years since the monster floods in Northern Vic. I'll never forget the 164mm we got in one week. Crazy days.
Try 200mm in an hour in parts of Melbourne the same year only a couple weeks later.

We all hate disasters but it's what makes weather watching impressive.
You can't help but admire the awesome power of mother nature. It's humbling. Weather is a source of change in what can be a very boring world
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by JasmineStorm »

stevco123 wrote:Still can't see a 38 degree day tomorrow. I'm sticking to my guns and saying 31-34.

Ofcourse if you are very muc inland, it will be an oven again.
BoM finally read your post and have downgraded the Melbourne temp forecast :)
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by stevco123 »

Hahaha, and now that they did that, it'll probably be 40.

Nah, 33-35 is spot on for Melbourne.
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by I_Love_Storms »

stevco123 wrote:
StratoBendigo wrote:A bit of an upgrade this evening. It would be great if it comes off and given the moisture streaming down, they might be onto something.

Incidentally, it's been 6 years since the monster floods in Northern Vic. I'll never forget the 164mm we got in one week. Crazy days.
Try 200mm in an hour in parts of Melbourne the same year only a couple weeks later.

We all hate disasters but it's what makes weather watching impressive.
LOL I don't think we had 200mm in an hour, but the evening of Feb 4 2011 some places did have 100-200mm over roughly a 12 hour period.
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by stevco123 »

From memory I think I got about 140mm between 7pm and 8:15pm roughly back then, along with another 50mm for that 24 hour period.

I will NEVER forget that, and I'm sure others won't either.
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by JasmineStorm »

The Mallee rocketing past 38c at 11am. Maybe mid 40’s coming up for them. You can see cloud from the west on the latest sat pic coming in to cap Melbourne’s temp probably around midday. Hard one for the BoM today in Melbourne, if there is a break in the clouds it’s going to spike really quick down there. The BoM would be sweating on that downgrade now with Melbourne past 33c already. Warming up here now at 31c, not sure if we will get the cloud cap north of the ranges, so expecting high 30’s if we don’t.

Big battle of the models for Friday. There is definitely an upper trough and developing surface low with EC, Access, CMC and NavGem still showing reasonable falls after a little downgrade this morning but GFS is just not on board. I’m still sitting on the fence…... :?
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by I_Love_Storms »

stevco123 wrote:From memory I think I got about 140mm between 7pm and 8:15pm roughly back then, along with another 50mm for that 24 hour period.

I will NEVER forget that, and I'm sure others won't either.
Really?! That is hard to believe, I didn't remember it being that severe! I was in Lilydale and I think we got 120mm over maybe 6 hours, where maybe 60mm fell in 1-2 hours.
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by stevco123 »

I_Love_Storms wrote:
stevco123 wrote:From memory I think I got about 140mm between 7pm and 8:15pm roughly back then, along with another 50mm for that 24 hour period.

I will NEVER forget that, and I'm sure others won't either.
Really?! That is hard to believe, I didn't remember it being that severe! I was in Lilydale and I think we got 120mm over maybe 6 hours, where maybe 60mm fell in 1-2 hours.
I'll dig up the records when i go home later :). But I recall it was quite severe.
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by mick »

Little bit sea breeze now.
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Re: Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

Post by Wilko »

Temp dropped to 27c with SW but since climbed back up 32c
The Wimmera I'd damn hot so we may see a late spike in temps :?
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