Vic - Jan 1 to 8th - mild start, mid week easterly dip, hot finish

[JasmineStorm]

certainly healthy early morning cells - with freezing levels lowered to 3,500m and cells already this big, I'm thinking that why the BoM had hail in the forecast. Lots of ice particles if they keep blowing up this big.

[Hawker]

STW has been put out, includes flash flooding and hail.
A decent rain would be good but don't want anything damaging.
That Ballarat storm seems to be drifting up my way.

[JasmineStorm]

STW has been put out, includes flash flooding and hail.
A decent rain would be good but don't want anything damaging.
That Ballarat storm seems to be drifting up my way.

Yep definitely on course for us. An attack line of multiple cells now stretching into the Mallee

[hillybilly]

Feels sauna like out there this morning (again). We got a couple of showers overnight in FC but nothing registered in the gauge.

Little odd today having steering flow from the westsouthwest. Tends not to favour us locally in FC, but hopefully this time we get a fall to keep things ticking over.

Plenty of heat in the outlook with hot days today, Friday, Saturday, Sunday (early), and then again into next (work) week.

[stevco123]

I WAS excited, until I saw that they are coming from the South West.

Geelong likely to get smashed as well as Werribe and Lara, but probably nothing in the east.

[Skywalker]

Unlikely to see much down here on the island. Looks like I could be in the wrong spot yet again.

[JasmineStorm]

There's been plenty of rumbles here this morning, big rain drops, a couple of grass fires just south and west with calls to the SES in Beaufort for flooding assistance from that multicell cluster that just keeps giving.

Fair to say the latest GFS / stormcast is a country mile off the mark on storms in Vic.....basically has missed the whole current sequence on the latest run for storms.

A lovely dip now appearing on the 11am earthnull snapshot for 700hPa - Very much a SWesterly steer with CAPE now increasing.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 41,-37.500

[Dane]

As I said earlier the steering all wrong for us today (coming from the SW and moving to the NE) very rarely get storm under that sort of steering.
There will be some big storms to the north of Melbourne today I think, slight chance in outer northern suburbs.
Very little chance of anything south of the City.

[flyfisher]

Yes with a SW steering and the sea breeze to yet come through, I cannot see storms for Melbourne. BOM need to change their forecast - would love to be wrong but just cannot see it happening currently.

[JasmineStorm]

my 2 cents worth on the midday sat pic

[JasmineStorm]

nice little bit of moisture now dipping down as of midday east of the trough line.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[mick]

UNusual to see that cloud off the west coast again, similar to the other week but not same set up.

[mick]

On btw in the words of the Herald Sun...."Brace for large hail, rapid change on the way" Brace for large hail? Im all for a bit of poetic license, but we are not on a plane here, how does one BRACE for hail?

[JasmineStorm]

@Mick - Hail and Brace, sound like a UK 80's comedy. I love reading the good old media dramatized dumb down.... the 'mini tornado' is always a favourite term in their vocab.

Just checking in the latest supercomputer 3 hour forecast - the dip is dropping nicely at 700 hPa with little upper westerly appearing, along with some more CAPE

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 68,-37.782

[flyfisher]

Looks like the seabreeze is pushing through the western side of the bay. Some convective cloud popping up on the Otways to the SW. Would need some to pop up on the bellarene peninsula, survive crossing the bay and form into a storm on the eastern suburbs - here is hoping

[stevco123]

I suppose a 70% chance of rain also means that there is a 30% chance it WON"T rain, therefore bureau has all bases covered.

So i guess they got it right

[JasmineStorm]

Some convection in the west but that sea breeze certainly isnt doing the coast and Melbourne any favours ATM - eastern ranges going off and a little cell sparking near Bacchus Marsh about to head into the Macedon ranges. Temp spiking to 32c here now but dew point dropped from 18c to 14c.

[typhoon29]

Teased by storms all around us today, a few rumbles a few flangs no rain. Was quite cool earlier but boy its warm now! A Few unorganised Cu around but looks rather dry.

[Skywalker]

I suppose a 70% chance of rain also means that there is a 30% chance it WON"T rain, therefore bureau has all bases covered.

So i guess they got it right

Yep, great forecasting BOM.
Might also mention further congratulations goes to the Herald Scum & their usual pathetic reporting.

My focuss now shifts to the next event, whenever that may be.

[stevco123]

Slow news day for the Herald Sun, dedicating a whole day to the non event.