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Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Couple little tiny sprinkles, tiny sounds, and stopped..
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by Gordon »

JasmineStorm wrote:Another day of upgrades and downgrades almost complete. EC has moved the low again and performed its 12 hourly downgrade...... I've gone from 25mm to zero again with almost everyone else in Vic on the latest EC run.

Other notables mentions - Possible storm outbreak modelled on GFS next Tuesday Dec 20th, EC modelled a 960 hPa cyclone off Broome Dec 23rd, Moderate heat wave modelled on GFS for Vic between Christmas day and Dec 29th :firey:
I have to admit the models have become random noise to me lately. Normally I enjoy following them but I can't remember the last time they seemed so shaky even a couple of days out - let alone at a week or more. I don't think they're telling us much at all that's useful atm :(.
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hillybilly
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by hillybilly »

10C overnight in FC. A few spits but nothing recordable. The rain band mainly to our northeast as expect.

Friday looks mainly a northern/eastern event now. Is a decent front into Saturday which might drop a bit. Dried out really quickly the last couple of days, so starting to need another event.

Couple of obs further north - warmest night on record in Sydney for December. Also, if they crack 100F today will be the first time this has happened in December on two consecutive days. We've been lucky to escape whart could have been a pretty significan heatwave with this event.
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by JasmineStorm »

The trough / low is off and running in S.A this morning. Good falls on the radar north of Adelaide with sparks north west of Broken Hill. Looks like a good system, shame its staying north of Vic at this stage with every model now agreeing except one. The Navy model is still hanging onto the unlikely scenario of the low heading south and soaking central Vic on Friday.

CFA burn off ban comes into play on December 19th up here in the Macedon Ranges. There is a tonne a growth.....that heat wave GFS keeps modelling for Vic around Xmas is becoming very interesting.

Yes, Gordon.....models have had an ordinary week or so. Summer volatility has played havoc with them sticking to a scenario.
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by Harley34 »

Someone update with technicals please.
Logged on to expect Jasmine or Hilly for an update, but guess we are all a tad disappointed, as it looks to stay north right now. Fingers crossed for Friday...
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by JasmineStorm »

Still remaining north at this stage with a nice little eruption in central NSW later today. Good falls across NSW today and tomorrow with the low dipping towards Sydney later today. Seems highly likely now that it's a miss for us on this one. Quite a bit of cool air with that front on Saturday which will make it feel spring like. Time to take a peek at Harley34's Dec 21st thread .....

And I need to do another thorough examination of this Christmas period set up, I might need to pour myself a pimms for this one. Currently cyclones, ex cyclones, mid 40s, howling north westerlies.... and a big code red on Dec 28th :? I lobbed a post in the general discussion folder yesterday on this subject ;)
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by jimmyay »

Is it likely to be a hot Christmas in Melbourne? 8-) :D
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by JasmineStorm »

jimmyay wrote:Is it likely to be a hot Christmas in Melbourne? 8-) :D
Good question Jimmy..... based on the current models, there is chaos in the tropics, the gates of hell are opening up in the outback and a cut off low is menacing around in the Tasman sea blocking a big fat high. There are so many variables it would be a brave person to be confident..... but the GFS model keeps saying its going to get very warm and now Access is also jumping on board..... here is what GFS said on this morning's run for Christmas day
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by hillybilly »

Latest batch of progs all have a bit of instability in central and eastern areas tomorrow. Not a lot in it on the runs, but might surprise.

Fairly strong front Saturday morning but high squeezes it so showers will be a bit sparse.
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by Hawker »

the Yarrawonga radar has in interesting look to it at the moment. Looks to me like a weak squall line
moving to the south west. Doppler shows it up nicely.
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by JasmineStorm »

Lots of good rain this morning heading into NE Vic.....shame it hasn't headed south into central Vic. Couple of inches in parts of the Riverina overnight.
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by hillybilly »

Rapid moisture advection out there in the low levels. DPs have jumped from around 5C overnight to around 15C now east of the city. Quite unstable - should see Cu go up soon with GFS and EC both got showers to follow from about 3pm.
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by Skywalker »

I'm heading up to Sydney tomorrow for our work Christmas party which is taking place on the Harbour. Certainly going to be quite interesting (and possibly exciting from my prospective) with the current weather conditions up there. :sccary:

At least I might FINALLY get to see a storm or two, even if it means travelling to another state to see one.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by hillybilly »

Just got a shower in the CBD. Guess that's todays excitment.

Few small storms going up east of the Dandenongs currently, but looks like the mid-level muck has widely killed the storm chance for most.
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Re: Victoria: Big Low 13 December - 17 December 2016

Post by hillybilly »

Picked up a stray shower overnight with 2.8mm. Guess that breaks the sequence of dry fronts. Perhaps 500 litres into the water tank so will help water the veggies :P

Things are getting dry quickly here now. The wind and low dewpoints have acted to dry things out despite the fairly mild temperatures.
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