Victoria: Warm then a strong front - December 7 to 10 2016

[hillybilly]

8mm here now

Btw pressures just taken a dive. Down to 995hPa. Front is racing across the bay now.

[Gordon]

Very strong winds on the front here and a burst of heavy rain.

[Geoff]

Struggling here with just 4mm so far at 10am. It's all going just a tad south of us again. Expecting to play catchup with the colder stuff to follow.

[JasmineStorm]

27mm so far here. Trentham 44mm, Daylesford 41mm. BoM / Access was out by over double. EC won the battle of the models this morning up here but still underestimated by 10+ mm.

I see a little shelfie has appeared on the bay

[Skywalker]

Just the usual rubbish single figure totals out here in Melbourne's western desert. Still I'll accept anything at this stage as things are starting to look quite dry.

Not quite sure about that Phillip Island reading of 14mm as it's 4mm more than the Rhyll station had recorded at exactly the same time.

[Macedonian]

36mm at home at Mt Macedon. Im over the moon with that.

[stevco123]

Watching that little cell with interest just to the southwest of here and moving towards me at home

EDIT>> The band just split right over the top of me, and ONLY over the top of me. The rest of Melbourne may you enjoy your rain.

Hopefull it redevelops a little for me

[Skywalker]

Watching that little cell with interest just to the southwest of here and moving towards me at home

EDIT>> The band just split right over the top of me, and ONLY over the top of me. The rest of Melbourne may you enjoy your rain.

Hopefull it redevelops a little for me

Don't worry stevco, the same thing is happening here as it always does. Force field in full effect here as I watch everything on the radar dive south & amplify over the bay onwards towards the eastern suburbs.

[stevco123]

I take back what I said. It is Teeming down here. COming down fast

[JasmineStorm]

clear eye has appeared on the deepening cyclonic gyre at 11.20am on http://satview.bom.gov.au/ a lovely santa claus beard clinging onto SE OZ

currently it's 200 km NNW of what most models estimated at this time. Pressure is around 982. Mid 980's on Tassie land now. She's about to start cranking on the west side..... sick bags on the ready for the Spirit of Tassie voyage tonight.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Not looking forward to sailing through the heads tomorrow,
Got a good dose of travel calm.
Can't seem to see any of those ports web cams.. links down ?

[Geoff]

Can't seem to see any of those ports web cams.. links down ?

Yes Port of Melbourne closed them down about a year ago Shell, really annoying.
Just 5.5mmm here which is about the maximum we get from the northerly part of most systems.
Now to see if we can catch up with the cold pool to follow.
(Edit: and as if by magic a big blob of heavy rain pops up out of nowhere right on the back edge, might be a few mm's more).

[Dane]

Wouldn't you know it, lightning tracker now showing storms just to the east of the metro area.
Had almost 12mm's since it started but Melbourne Water Cranbourne Sth has done a lot better with 18mm's.
A few more showers later today and tomorrow morning then that will be about it.

[stevco123]

Auto gauge has 12mm here, but manual closer to 16mm.

I'm seriously starting to think that there has been a perfect setup over the last few years where the metro area has become a shield for certain weather events due to urbanisation expanding.

We no longer get proper storm days, and no longer get proper fog days no matter which way you look at it, yet areas to the west and east still do.

[HarleyB]

16mm here and a couple of rolls of thunder. Happy with that, bring on next week's heat. Just 13 degrees here now.

[JasmineStorm]

my quick take on the 1.30pm sat pic

[hillybilly]

That band of the showers was a cracker up here. 8mm in quick time with small hail. 18mm now so tracking nicely. Classic unstable nwly setup which sets up the heaviest rain in the Dendenongs around Ferny Creek, with a quick drop off to our north (sorry Geoff ) and east.

Now waiting on the cold air showers.

[Geoff]

I've been waiting for the cold pool to arrive to see if there's any "Bay Effect" yet, alas it appears not, water is still not warm enough, though it could kick in as the air turns colder later.
9mm here today, largely thanks to the heavy shower on the very tail end of the main rain band.

[hillybilly]

I've been waiting for the cold pool to arrive to see if there's any "Bay Effect" yet, alas it appears not, water is still not warm enough.

Needs the flow to go more southerly Geoff. Give it a couple more hours.

Btw rumble here just before. Only 0.4mm but more to come.

[stevco123]

They're coming in way too fast. They fly over the top very quickly meanin little rainfall