Vic: Hotter with a late change, November 16 to 21 2016

[hillybilly]

Switching into summer mode the next few days. Not much weather Thursday/Friday but the second part looks hotter with a stronger front. Models trying to produce some rain late on Monday with the change. Hot on Monday, with low 40s up north and mid 30s in southern areas.

[JasmineStorm]

Feeling a bit more like summer this morning with a slight northerly coming in. Monday certainly looks to be hot with a stormy finish.

[Geoff]

Most models show a thundery trough moving over Vic later on Monday and lingering over eastern parts on Tuesday, but they've all lost interest in a follow up low forming and giving potentially wet conditions over S/E Oz mid week.
In essence it seems the dry spells are getting longer while the wet spells are shorter.

[JasmineStorm]

Congrats Central Melbourne – You passed the big 30c !! Currently 27.6 in Kyneton with decent North Westerly. All that moisture from the weekend is long gone….drying out fast.

With temps in the mid 30’s and strong northerly on Monday, I thought I’d better upskill myself on the new Vic Emergency app that has replaced Fire Ready. I found 5 design flaws and 6 technical defects within 30 minutes. Gave my feedback and received a very fast and concerned response. I hope that’s all fixed by Monday

[stevco123]

Congrats Central Melbourne – You passed the big 30c !! Currently 27.6 in Kyneton with decent North Westerly. All that moisture from the weekend is long gone….drying out fast.

With temps in the mid 30’s and strong northerly on Monday, I thought I’d better upskill myself on the new Vic Emergency app that has replaced Fire Ready. I found 5 design flaws and 6 technical defects within 30 minutes. Gave my feedback and received a very fast and concerned response. I hope that’s all fixed by Monday

29.7 the highest so far in Central Melbourne. Where's the 30?

[JasmineStorm]

Congrats Central Melbourne – You passed the big 30c !! Currently 27.6 in Kyneton with decent North Westerly. All that moisture from the weekend is long gone….drying out fast.

With temps in the mid 30’s and strong northerly on Monday, I thought I’d better upskill myself on the new Vic Emergency app that has replaced Fire Ready. I found 5 design flaws and 6 technical defects within 30 minutes. Gave my feedback and received a very fast and concerned response. I hope that’s all fixed by Monday

29.7 the highest so far in Central Melbourne. Where's the 30?

I have a direct feed from the Olympic Park station ....check again now.....

[hillybilly]

So Melbourne has scored its first 30C. For those who like numbers, it's about 18 days late (last year we had our first 30 nearly four weeks early).

The record holder is 2001 when the first 30C came after Christmas.

Should get our second 30 on Monday, and must be a good chance for 35C.

[Gordon]

ABC claims it's the latest 30C day in Melbourne for 15 years (which would make it the latest since hillybilly's 2001 30C).

Yet to score our first here, not even close today - 25.8 C looks like being our top as full cloud has come in now.

Maybe Monday will be the day?

[WeatherViewer]

Just nudged 32.9C at home in Wyndham Vale on my Station, other weather stations in the area are reflecting that to.

[hillybilly]

ABC claims it's the latest 30C day in Melbourne for 15 years (which would make it the latest since hillybilly's 2001 30C).

Sounds about right. Been 13 years since the last below average October and spring for Vic.

[WeatherViewer]

Only 20C forecast for Melbourne tomorrow? ACCESS seemed to be showing a bit warmer then that.

[stevco123]

I think Monday's 35 is pushing it a bit. More like 31-33 I reckon

[JasmineStorm]

Monday is definitely interesting.... certainly over 30. Models are showing winds gusting around 60 km/hr at the 950hPa.....Might be close to a severe fire danger rating up here. Then it goes quite unstable with that trough ....

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-37.48;143. ... 1/06&m=gfs

[stevco123]

Sunday now looking closer to 30 degrees, probably about 28 or 29.

[JasmineStorm]

Should be pretty good day tomorrow once the cloud clears away. I'm seeing instability on the rise for Sunday..... things are going to start bubbling in the hills and the west with a trough popping in to say hello on Sunday afternoon.

I'll be in severe weather mode on Monday, northerlies gusting around 70km/h up here, with low to mid 30s. Fire ban odds on for the Mallee around the 40s. Then it's looking like fireworks in central areas in the evening when the cold front starts giving that trough a nudge..... I'm tipping a big monster shelf cloud

[hillybilly]

Not much change in the progs. Bit of instability and warmth on Sunday. Looks marginal to me - really need a bit more low level moisture - but might get lucky. Little trough in the northeasterlies is the focus. Hot too for most, away from coastal sea breezes.

Hotter again Monday but mix of cloud with showers and probably late storms. The trough tends to linger in the mid/upper levels so showers will take a while to clear on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Rainfall totals typically in the 5 to 20mm range. Might do ok, or miss out completely. Suddenly the longer term looks summer like. Highs way south of OZ with easterlies covering most of OZ.

[JasmineStorm]

Nice little temp upgrades for tomorrow and Monday from the BoM. Getting into the mid 40's in the centre of OZ on Monday, so that gusty northerly should feel like a hair dryer on the medium setting. Upper trough behind the front is adding some extra spice for the event on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[hillybilly]

Latests progs all showing decent rainfall now for central and eastern parts of Vic. The system has a few parts - weak trough Sunday with possible thunderies, slow trough on Monday, then system tends to stall as a second upper trough approaches from the west. Last EC has locally up to 30mm through eastern burbs which will be very welcome after Monday's scorcher

[stevco123]

I still can't see warmer than about 33 or 34 Monday. And then teens for at least the next 7 days after that

[JasmineStorm]

Another summer like start this morning...temp has gone up 5 degrees in the last hour. Clouds will be bubbling this afternoon on the ranges.

That upper trough has had another rainfall upgrade from EC for Tuesday up here...could get around 20mm now