Vic: Hotter with a late change, November 16 to 21 2016

[Geoff]

Dark clouds, squally winds, but no rain here yet.....

[JasmineStorm]

Impressive storm shield you have down there in Melbourne.... the bay ripped the heart right out of that baby. That was Super celling 100km from the city. A few good claps up here.

Well done Stevco on the temp forecast, I see 35 was the max... BoMs tail between the legs.

[Macedonian]

Im out at Lakes Entrance this evening, it was touching 40C earlier in Bairnsdale.
5hours in a car with broken aircon and a very hot spring day. Yuk!

[StratoBendigo]

Quite an upgrade in rain forecast for tomorrow according to EC - 28mm predicted.

[Dane]

I have noticed that a lot, big storms on the western side of the bay and then they weaken dramaticly
once they cross the bay.
Reached 35.1c here today, now 21.5c.
2.8mm's with those showers.
Hope that rainband comes of tomorrow only 21mm's MTD.
BTW been a bad year for storms only 9 thunder days this year - yearly average is 18.

[Tassiedave]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Tasmania - quite rare. Orange blobs on the NW Tas radar also quite rare.

[Skywalker]

Pretty pathetic effort here, although the rain we did get was most welcome after slugging it out on the bike. Saw one flash in the distance towards the south, no thunder or anything else particularly exciting. The boring weather continues.....

[mick]

I have noticed that a lot, big storms on the western side of the bay and then they weaken dramaticly
once they cross the bay.

Do not be alarmed, this is usual.

The best Bay storms charge up through the heads, not common since the mid 90s. Winter, trend is now back that way, but noit lighting storms, just gales really.

Kew, yarra river valley, always get pop up storms. Weather splits at mentone corner, south road moorabbin hill, a hot spot. Cranbourme pakenaam, avalon werribree all get smashed.

After a lifetime of watching all this, very closely since a kid, its all hit and miss with storms. Short sharp are forgotten. epic ones are forgpotten after a few years unless yu get damaged.

Look at the trees, they still all point the same way, big and small. Erosion comes from the south, the sun from the north.

Hansa up who can name the last new river formed in Australia?

Overall, it was easier and simpler when we had no radar and the BOM was wrong 99.99% of the time. What happened, happened, you looked at the sky.

[Sugarlata]

Hi All,

Bit of a disappointment across most of Melbourne today. Seeing reports of damage come out of the west though and and interesting path of damage through Truganina way. Long narrow path of damage according to the emergency vic site. Was anyone out that way and see anything?

Nate

EDIT: Easier to see from app:

[Geoff]

who can name the last new river formed in Australia?

Well Mick old mate, we've had a new tributary flowing into our creek for the first time this year after all the rain. Never seen it before, it just comes out of the ground and flows down the bank into the creek. We haven't given it a name yet, perhaps "Shorty" would do, as it is only about 2 metres long!
A little bit of light rain out there now, but not enough to register yet, hoping for a wet day tomorrow and a return to more hygienic temperatures for the rest of the month.

[Rivergirl]

Did you see the radar Geoff. The rain parted and went around the Dandenongs We only got a few drops

[Tassiedave]

Heavy rain here in the Tamar Valley, 360 degree lightning flashes and rolling thunder. Once in five years type storm for this part of the world.

[Geoff]

Did you see the radar Geoff. The rain parted and went around the Dandenongs We only got a few drops

Yep, same old story Robyn, we don't get rain from the north very often - our turn tomorrow with the colder air.
Enjoy the show Tassiedave

[hillybilly]

3mm at home in FC ATM and dribbling outside. Radar is a mess, but slowly filling in.

EC did a good job yesterday... just a mm or two on the front. Low levels were just too dry just above the surface. You could see that in the strong outflow winds and the high cloud bases.

I suspect some of the storm weakening on radar wasn't real. When you have a lot of virga it will appear heavier a bit away from the radar then weaken as it approaches you. Totals west and east of Melbourne were all pretty light.

Thinking we should get twenty mms give or tak in FC today which will be very welcome

EDIT> GFS dropped rainfall a lot on the latest run and radar looking less hopeful now. A bit of a bust out west as expected, with central areas inbetween the better falls out east. Tracking ok in FC with 7.5mm so far.

[stevco123]

Dry day ahead. But still about 17 to 19 degrees

[Geoff]

Nice to wake to the sound of rain this morning, looks like it could rain all day here with the trajectory of the rainband.

Dry day ahead.

I'd be surprised stevco123, there's a bright orange blob on the radar right over Cranny.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Been steadily constant for a fair few hours here,
Green is glowing..

[JasmineStorm]

7mm so far here. I see that storm last night kicked off Asthma attacks across Melbourne...... 'thunderstorm asthma' it's called.

Quote from the paper 'The phenomenon is thought to occur when rain or humid weather causes pollen grains to absorb moisture and burst, releasing hundreds of small particles that cause an allergic reaction'.

[Onetahuti]

8.5mm for here.

[stevco123]

Dry day ahead. But still about 17 to 19 degrees

Okay, so i was expecting the rain band to clear by 7am, hence my prediction above, but as soon as it looks like it's clearing, more develops right on the the edge.

Looks to be slowly clearing however. Not sure whether we'll get persistent rain for the WHOLE day as predicted, however