Victoria - Low pressure system - Nov 11 to 14th 2016

[Geoff]

Amazing that a night of drizzle can end up giving as much as a big thunderstorm. 33mm from that drizzle, plus 10mm from the previous rainband.

[JasmineStorm]

Latest Sat Pic showing signs of cloud break up over Vic for the Super Duper moon rise around 7.30pm .... it will be hit and miss with these clouds, north of the divide is a good chance

[JasmineStorm]

Amazing that a night of drizzle can end up giving as much as a big thunderstorm. 33mm from that drizzle, plus 10mm from the previous rainband.

The Dandenong ranges crew came home with an amazing fast finish to the thread. Past virtually all of us with that back end tail sting....

[Geoff]

The Dandenong ranges crew came home with an amazing fast finish to the thread. Past virtually all of us with that back end tail sting....

Ha! That reminded me of an American middle distance runner in the 1970's called Dave Wottle, he'd sit at the back of the field all the way until the final straight when he would speed past everyone to win!

[hillybilly]

Picked up another six mm today, so event up to 42mm. Good late save. Needed it, as it was drying quickly.

Thinking another mm or two tomorrow.

Latest EC got some real heat ahead with 30s a good chance away from the bay Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday. 850Ts reach 20C on Monday Cooler sea breezes will lower temps on Thursday and Sunday bayside. Models been a bit jumpy so might change.

[hillybilly]

2mm more overnight. Foggy morning. Last front clipping us today so might squeeze out a bit more.

[JasmineStorm]

Definitely a good drop was had by some, unlucky in the SE of Melbourne. I see its dumping now on NZ....last thing you probably need after a 7.5 quake.

Interesting stormy set up on the CMC model for late next Monday. Other models don't really like it too much at the moment so probably wont happen like this but the deepening tropical low in the coral sea also add a bit of spice to the picture. At this stage CMC is calling a cyclone by mid next week off Qld.

[Rivergirl]

Can anyone hazard a guess on the weather in Tassie down past Hobart from Sunday night to Wednesday? There will be auroras happening and I'm thinking about flying over but not if cloud and showers are forecast. Thanks

[JasmineStorm]

Can anyone hazard a guess on the weather in Tassie down past Hobart from Sunday night to Wednesday? There will be auroras happening and I'm thinking about flying over but not if cloud and showers are forecast. Thanks

I think based on current models, Sunday night might be your only clear night in Southern Tassie. Monday and Tuesday would probably have cloud cover and maybe rain. Maybe check this simulated IR satellite image for the GFS model and scroll through those nights. Looks a little dicey to me

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=415

[Rivergirl]

Thanks so much Jasmine Storm. Much appreciated.

[hillybilly]

Fog and drizzle through the eastern burbs this morning. Last sneaky front coming in ahead of the low. 1.8mm in the gauges... pushes us up to ~45mm which is a good drop. MTD just over 50mm... tracking a bit below average but much better.

Not seeing much in the next few days, but perhaps something for later Monday/Tuesday.

[JasmineStorm]

You have certainly squeezed the most out of this one HB - Haven't seen a drop up here since Sunday. Some nice warm days in the forecast with Monday showing some very warm interior heat coming into Vic. Fire danger up here by next Monday will be very high.

CMC keeps modelling a water bomb for the middle of next week over Vic. Hard to take too serious but Access G has also just modelled the same water bomb between Tues and Thurs next week.... U.S navy model is now also liking it.... GFS latest is also modelling it but over NSW and importantly the most reliable long term model EC is seeing it out in the Tasman. Certainly not worth a thread yet......but if the Access +216 comes off

[stevco123]

i don't believe it.

when was the last time a low bombed over us? surely it's been 5 years or more.

this low will end up where it usually always ends up- on the north coast of nsw

[JasmineStorm]

i don't believe it.

when was the last time a low bombed over us? surely it's been 5 years or more.

this low will end up where it usually always ends up- on the north coast of nsw

Tend to agree with you stevco..... I'm not believing yet either but there is a lot of instability into our neighbourhood this coming Monday and the seas off the east coast are starting to boil, then it looks like a easterly flow into Vic .....EC next run will be interesting tonight.

[stevco123]

And an Easterly flow means humidity. YUK!

I've said it before and I"ll keep saying it... the only good thing about summer is the fact there's only 3 to 4 months left until it starts getting cold again.

[WeatherViewer]

And an Easterly flow means humidity. YUK!

I've said it before and I"ll keep saying it... the only good thing about summer is the fact there's only 3 to 4 months left until it starts getting cold again.

Monday is going to be a muggy day that's for sure! And highs of 36C around Melbourne.