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Victoria - Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18 2016

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Victoria - Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18 2016

Post by hillybilly »

Thread for the next event which has settled down in the models. Warming up the next couple of days ahead of a gusty/showery front on Sunday. Temperatures into the 20s in the south and 30s in the northwest for Friday/Saturday. Unfortunately, wind will probably make Saturday not that plesant (despite sunshine and warmth).

Models holding reasonable rainfall totals, but been a bit jumpy. The uppers with this system look better than the last front (for rain) and the winds a not as strong (thankfully :roll: ).
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Nice frosty start tomorrow to the thread around the ranges and then a cracker of a day tomorrow. Interesting few days coming up..... its a nice basic weather buffet to keep us ticking along and it finishes with a burst of unseasonal moist polar air late on Tuesday :o

Still refreshing the models on the next one from Oct 20 to 24. Models are still wobbling around as you would expect but this could be a cut off low in Bass Strait...... With the warm moist air and oceans around the top end at present, I believe we have a ticking time bomb for SE OZ if a big front pushes into inland WA in the next 2 weeks.
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by Geoff »

This evening's EC run has 40mm progged for us on Sat Oct 22nd! :o
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by hillybilly »

EC and GFS showing a couple of healthy fronts for Sunday and Tuesday, following the next two nice days. Shame Saturday will see a return of solid winds (though uppers are much less ugly than last Sunday's system).

Does look quite unstable on Sunday with LI dipping into the negatives so might get the odd rumble in the mix of cloud that will be over us.

The warmest air goes through overnight on Saturday so we'll miss the chance for a run at 30C in Melbourne. Still might see a 26 or 27C somewhere in the metro area.
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by Geoff »

...and this morning's EC has knocked the "0" off our total for Saturday, now down to 4mm. :roll:
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

-0.4 here this morning with down the road at Woodend -2.4 ! Great spring day ahead though.... I'm seeing snow getting quite low for this time of year by next Tuesday night
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by StratoBendigo »

Harsh frost here this morning. Bird bath frozen and so on. A real bite to the air that I haven't felt since a couple of months ago.

Looks like a nice day today though.
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Geoff wrote:...and this morning's EC has knocked the "0" off our total for Saturday, now down to 4mm. :roll:
Models are definitely wobbling a lot on this one but EC is still thinking its a cut off low near the SA border on the 23rd at the moment. Your 4mm might gets its zero back soon ;)
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by hillybilly »

Glourious evening yesterday, and today looks nice apart from the wind. Looks like winds peak overnight, and hopefully we get a bit of decoupling which keeps the winds above our heads.

Progs starting to slow down tomorrow's system a bit. More of an arvo system in central areas now. Temps will warm quickly in the morning ahead of it. GFS suggest we could well see runs at 30C in eastern areas, and even up towards 28C just east of Melbourne. Guess we will see.

Rain looks ok but not that great. Low levels are dry ahead of this system, again. The second system on Tuesday reminds me of what we saw last week on the same day.
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by Geoff »

JasmineStorm wrote:Your 4mm might gets its zero back soon
You were right JS, we got our "0" back, now without the "4", just plain "0" for the 22nd. :(
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Geoff wrote:
JasmineStorm wrote:Your 4mm might gets its zero back soon
You were right JS, we got our "0" back, now without the "4", just plain "0" for the 22nd. :(
Lol - yes well sort of ;) EC and GFS now have the cut off low going north but CFS, Access and CMC have a direct hit on Vic.....long way to go.
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by Hawker »

Bom seems fairly keen for tomorrow, flood watches out for the south and northeast.

Horrible day yesterday, nice, warm, sunny -------------------------------------and I was working inside.

Would be nice now to get the uppers on what bom is saying 15mm would
keep things looking very nice around here.
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by Skywalker »

More bloody wind to ruin what is otherwise a sunny day down here at Cowes. :cussing: :cussing: :cussing:
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by Geoff »

Yes, it's just getting to the stage now where you think, if it gets any stronger then trees are going to start falling again up here. :(
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by nafets »

Strongest winds of the day so far coming though now. Can imagine it would be scary up in the Dandenongs!
Go the bombersss!
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Currently blowing at 125 km/hr on the SA.Vic border @850 hPa .....might get some big gusts later tonight in central vic.
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by Geoff »

Yes, getting a bit ugly up here now, some of these big gusts are doing some damage. Our patio chairs have been blowing over and they're made of metal not placcy.
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by Geoff »

Don't want to tempt fate as the forecast is for strengthening winds tonight, but here the winds have definitely eased in the last hour or two.
We heard a big crash after a huge gust around 6pm (didn't find anything), but things have been calmer since.
hillybilly wrote: hopefully we get a bit of decoupling which keeps the winds above our heads
Could be right there HB.
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Winds just picked up again here.. uh oh...
power must have flickered at some stage also..
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Re: Warm and wind then a series of front: October 14-18

Post by JasmineStorm »

Mount William has just clocked 100 km/hr in the last hour.....

Just had a peek at the latest GFS for next 10 days. 100mm + for around Melbourne metro, 125mm + on the ranges. It's still projecting a monster cut off low next weekend to the Tuesday in Vic. EC latest ...total opposite. I'm tipping some big upgrades and downgrades from someone before next weekend ;)
Last edited by JasmineStorm on Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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