Thread for the next event which has settled down in the models. Warming up the next couple of days ahead of a gusty/showery front on Sunday. Temperatures into the 20s in the south and 30s in the northwest for Friday/Saturday. Unfortunately, wind will probably make Saturday not that plesant (despite sunshine and warmth).
Models holding reasonable rainfall totals, but been a bit jumpy. The uppers with this system look better than the last front (for rain) and the winds a not as strong (thankfully ).
Nice frosty start tomorrow to the thread around the ranges and then a cracker of a day tomorrow. Interesting few days coming up..... its a nice basic weather buffet to keep us ticking along and it finishes with a burst of unseasonal moist polar air late on Tuesday
Still refreshing the models on the next one from Oct 20 to 24. Models are still wobbling around as you would expect but this could be a cut off low in Bass Strait...... With the warm moist air and oceans around the top end at present, I believe we have a ticking time bomb for SE OZ if a big front pushes into inland WA in the next 2 weeks.
EC and GFS showing a couple of healthy fronts for Sunday and Tuesday, following the next two nice days. Shame Saturday will see a return of solid winds (though uppers are much less ugly than last Sunday's system).
Does look quite unstable on Sunday with LI dipping into the negatives so might get the odd rumble in the mix of cloud that will be over us.
The warmest air goes through overnight on Saturday so we'll miss the chance for a run at 30C in Melbourne. Still might see a 26 or 27C somewhere in the metro area.
-0.4 here this morning with down the road at Woodend -2.4 ! Great spring day ahead though.... I'm seeing snow getting quite low for this time of year by next Tuesday night
Geoff wrote:...and this morning's EC has knocked the "0" off our total for Saturday, now down to 4mm.
Models are definitely wobbling a lot on this one but EC is still thinking its a cut off low near the SA border on the 23rd at the moment. Your 4mm might gets its zero back soon
Glourious evening yesterday, and today looks nice apart from the wind. Looks like winds peak overnight, and hopefully we get a bit of decoupling which keeps the winds above our heads.
Progs starting to slow down tomorrow's system a bit. More of an arvo system in central areas now. Temps will warm quickly in the morning ahead of it. GFS suggest we could well see runs at 30C in eastern areas, and even up towards 28C just east of Melbourne. Guess we will see.
Rain looks ok but not that great. Low levels are dry ahead of this system, again. The second system on Tuesday reminds me of what we saw last week on the same day.
Yes, getting a bit ugly up here now, some of these big gusts are doing some damage. Our patio chairs have been blowing over and they're made of metal not placcy.
Don't want to tempt fate as the forecast is for strengthening winds tonight, but here the winds have definitely eased in the last hour or two.
We heard a big crash after a huge gust around 6pm (didn't find anything), but things have been calmer since.
hillybilly wrote: hopefully we get a bit of decoupling which keeps the winds above our heads
Mount William has just clocked 100 km/hr in the last hour.....
Just had a peek at the latest GFS for next 10 days. 100mm + for around Melbourne metro, 125mm + on the ranges. It's still projecting a monster cut off low next weekend to the Tuesday in Vic. EC latest ...total opposite. I'm tipping some big upgrades and downgrades from someone before next weekend
Last edited by JasmineStorm on Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.