VIC: Another low: September 17-19

[hillybilly]

Another low impacting Vic next three days. Front south of the Bight stands up the next 24 hours before cutting off into a low near Vic/Bass Strait for Saturday/Sunday. Doesn't look like a big rain event (is a bit moisture starved, without a tropical infeed) but still pretty widespread 10 to 30mm falls. More likely in the usual spots.

The uppers start out quite warm, but cool by Sunday evening so a bit more snow for the alps on the back end.

[hillybilly]

Models getting jumpy again

System looks a bit more complex with two "main" centres. One is developing near the NT/Qld/NSW border and the second further south near Bass Strait. EC and GFS now have the northern low more dominant.

ACCESS-R is a bit of an outlier with a stronger more southern low.

Just got a stray shower here this morning so event off to a start with 0.2mm

[StratoBendigo]

If anything, ACCESS-R has been the most accurate forecast model of late. We'll see.

Lake Eppalock now over 80% so not far from spilling. Loddon river dams all effectively full. What a turnaround!

[Hawker]

Yeah amazing the difference a bit of rain makes.
It doesn't look like anything too drastic for us,
20mls or so at the most each time, will keep the rivers running nicely.
Looking at the charts again 20mls is a bit ambitious, prob only 10 at a time will be it.
Realistically we don't need, and don't want, big falls from here in.
Flooding causes too much damage to people.
Hooroo Chris

[Hawker]

I wonder if there might be a convective cloud type, rain band, come through.
Can get bigger totals from rain like that.

[Geoff]

I wonder if there might be a convective cloud type, rain band, come through.

Looking at the radar Hawker, convective pre-frontal showers are kicking off ahead of the, main front already to the west of Melbourne.

[StratoBendigo]

3mm overnight. Looks like Southern Vic might get quite a bit in the coming week...

[Macedonian]

5C when i got up at 7am, its now 3.5C
Was wondering why i felt a bit chilly.

[Hawker]

Piddlin rain band today,
Yes, where is the warmth, getting towards late September.
I should be able to feel warmer, something must wrong,
Ice age coming or what,
It will be interesting to see what we get, when it does get warmer,

[Dane]

Just 1.9mm's up to 9am here and looking at the Radar not much more to come.
Have to wait for later in the week for some decent rain.
Still short of the monthly average here 52.5mm's so far - ave is 72mm's.

[HarleyB]

7.5mm here overnight. A bit more than I was expecting last night looking at the final forecasts for this system, so happy with that. Just the right amount, not too much.

[hillybilly]

5mm in FC in dribbles that are still going. Not expecting a lot with the main action over NSW and Qld. Looking now to the next low Tuesday to Thursday.

BTW max of just 7C post 9am. That getting chilly for mid September for us.

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks like another 25-50mm next 10 days according to models

[hillybilly]

Drizzly morning in FC with another 3mm. Event up to a nearly 9mm

Time for the new thread with a more substantial low for We'd and Thur.

[HarleyB]

Looking interesting Tuesday night through to Thursday, looking like over 20mm again for us.
BTW, interesting that yeterday was the coldest day in September for us since 6 Sep 2006, it really didn't feel that cold to me for once! Also looking like just our third month this year of the average maximum being below the long-term average for the month.

[Macedonian]

It was freezing at home this morning.
2.1C

[StratoBendigo]

Probably another 20mm for us - that shouldn't cause too many problems.

Meanwhile, the top-end of NT has been experiencing record Sept rainfall and SW Western Australia has been experiencing some very cold weather of late.

[StratoBendigo]

Late upgrades this afternoon. Looks more like 30-40mm tomorrow night which may cause problems...

[hillybilly]

the top-end of NT has been experiencing record Sept rainfall and SW Western Australia has been experiencing some very cold weather of late.

Been an IOD in over drive. A negative IOD puts enhanced southerly winds over SW WA and infeeds of tropical moisture to the east with a tendency for lows to develop near the bight/SA and track east. This IOD is the strongest in fifty plus years so beyond anything most of us have experienced

Lots of rain record falling inland and in the tropics. MDB already wettest September on records and a lots of stations in Qld and the NT breaking day and month records. Vic has been a bit hit miss by comparison. Lots of rain in the north and on the ranges, but a bit patchy in the south where the lack of fronts has been an issue (we've mainly had just cutoffs and troughs for a couple of months which are a bit hit miss in the lee of the divide).